EUROPA LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews FREIBURG v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FREIBURG V ASTON VILLA
8pm The biggest game of the week from Europe arrives on Wednesday night as we have the Europa League Final on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Freiburg take on Aston Villa at Beşiktaş Park in Istanbul! This is a night of enormous historic significance for both clubs. Freiburg are in their first-ever European final – a quite remarkable achievement for a club that has never won a major domestic trophy in Germany. On the other side, Aston Villa are in their first UEFA final since they won the European Cup in 1982, and what a journey it has been under Unai Emery. I know there was a big debate about not allowing the knocked out Champions League clubs fall into the Europa League, but it does produce magic moments for clubs like these two.
Unai Emery has been in the headlines coming into this game – the man has an unbelievable record in the Europa League! He won three consecutive Europa League titles with Sevilla between 2014 and 2016, then he added a fourth title with Villarreal in 2021, beating Manchester United on penalties in one of the most dramatic finals in recent memory. Now he has the chance to make it a record five Europa League titles with Aston Villa – a quite staggering CV in this competition. Emery has contested 49 European knockout ties across his managerial career and has come out on top in 40 of them. No surprise then that Aston Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites. Aston Villa are trading 1.71 with Freiburg 5.8 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing.
Outside of Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, there would be a little gulf in class between the standard and the Premier League. Freiburg have finished seventh in the Bundesliga this season – the Europa Conference League spot – but they have over-performed to get that. Their average xG created of 1.36 is towards the bottom attacking figures in the Bundesliga – a figure that looks very average for a side that has reached a European final. Their average xG conceded of 1.51 is also firmly mid-table. There’s nothing in the stats that Villa should be afraid of. Villa have Champions League football next season, but they have also over-performed in the Premier League. Their average xG created of 1.47 ranks ninth in the Premier League – a respectable but hardly dominant attacking figure. Their average xG conceded of 1.45 is almost identical, and when you create what you conceded that usually lands you in mid-table.
Villa fans have been calling Unai Enery the “xG killer” this season, but I think that speaks to Emery’s ability to extract results and get the absolutely most out of the squad he has. On paper, Freiburg have had a reasonably “easy” path here. There is one major injury blow for Freiburg heading into the final – Japanese winger Yuito Suzuki, one of their most exciting attacking players, broke his collarbone earlier this month and will miss the game entirely. I don’t think Freiburg’s fairytale can survive one more round, and the 1.71 on Villa looks too big to ignore here. Emery’s unmatched experience in this competition is a huge positive, and Villa look to have a lot more quality in their squad too. I’m happy to have a confident bet at 1.71.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Freiburg at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELFrAs
