FAVOURITE WAS A NON-RUNNER! One of the most memorable Derbys for the wrong reasons, says Daqman, as he warns punters not to follow the form. It was Christmas Day come early for the few but even the many got lucky when the horse they made favourite was declared a non-runner!
GOODWOOD SPECIAL: Daqman sticks at Goodwood on Sunday with a preview of both Listed races on the South Downs card.
THE PINSTICKERS’ DERBY..
🎩 DERBY punters took a soaking. All past form they believed in failed them; they couldn’t even rely on the going reports with the Epsom officials holding out against calling it soft.
It was already soft before the Derby, as reported by jockeys in the first two races, with horses withdrawn and the trainer wishing he hadn’t entered world-champion Calandagan in the Coronation Cup.
The Derby was run more than eight seconds slow and the two races which followed, reduced by more non-runners over the turning track at 1m 2f and 1m4f, were both almost 10 seconds slow. That’s soft-heavy.
The children’s party they call ITV Racing did its best to raise a few Ken Dodd moments in the rain – the presenters taking turns to be the ‘tickle stick’- mixed with history lessons about the ‘greatest family’ who have now bagged 12 Derbys among 50 British classics. Christmas Day had come early for some.
The favourite doesn’t even figure in the result! His tardy start was blamed on catching his foot in the stalls, so Benvenuto Cellini was declared a money-back non-runner.
It was a farcical after-timer for this pinstickers’ race in which the actual winner had only this credential for fame: the ability to gallop in the least muddy part of the track in a way that would create irrevocable distance over the others.
I had warned during the week that the Derby had ‘gone soft’ but I still made the mistake of treating the occasion with due reference and reverence to genuine form, attempting a proper assessment.
You always know the truth when the telly tells us how important it is to enjoy ourselves, the dumbing-down ‘how wonderful it is that we should’.
The smarter punters will know already that following the Derby form will be a bigger mugs’ game than the event itself.
LISTING BOTAGOZ AS VALUE CALL
⭕ 3.35 Goodwood (Agnes Keyser Fillies’ Stakes Listed Race) At least they seem to be calling the ground as it is at ‘Good’wood this afternoon with it proclaimed soft all over ahead of their seven race card featuring two Listed races which are worth a look at on Betdaq Betting Exchange .
This one looks very competitive, as it should be for black type races, but seldom is particularly with fillies races. John and Thady Gosden would appear to hold the aces in the pack with both Sacred Ground and Light Of Paris.
The 98-rated Sacred Ground looks very much first string with William Buick on top but she’s proved a little expensive to follow since making a winning debut at Yarmouth on good ground. She has since had seconditis with silver medals at Newmarket (twice) and Newbury last time out when a close second to Esna in a similar race to this one.
She might again be vulnerable against a host of likely improvers – especially with the added question mark of not having any experience on testing ground.
The Gosden’s Light Of Paris improved significantly for her Kempton debut when winning well over this trip at Ascot last time out. She doesn’t hold any big race entries however.
To be fair, I have the same ground questions about the Roger Varian trained Botagoz but I am playing at double odds on Betdaq to have the same question answered. She looks a smart filly who proved herself at this level when third at York to Lilt. She was staying on notably that day and looks certain to appreciate the extra distance and (hopefully) the extra stamina demand with the ground.
HAGGAS WITH THE KEYS
⭕ 4.45 Goodwood Tapster Stakes (Listed Race) This looks slightly easier to work out, despite also being a competitive market.
Hamish is rated 8lb superior on official ratings but the ten-year-old might struggle to give 5lb away to his talented stablemate Tenability.
The William Haggas trained pair head the market for this 1m 4f trip – Tenability won over this trip on crucially soft ground at Ascot in September in a competitive heritage handicap and reappeared with a creditable run in April when third to Convergent in the Group 3 John Porter at Newbury which should now put him spot on for this.
Stable favourite Hamish is not dismissed lightly – he reappeared to win this 12 months ago and won the St Simon Stakes over course and distance in October. He now has another break to overcome.
I can stake in such a way to cover the NAP stake on Tenability as an insurance option.
SINGING THE BLUES
⭕ 5.20 Goodwood I looked at this race yesterday and liked Diamondonthehill who is now a non runner.
Dr Strangelove is unproven on the ground and it might now leave the door open for my ‘second in’ Blue Prince who has solid course and distance form and goes on soft.
This doesn’t look too deep a race and he may just have a bit too much class.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
3.35 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 3.1pts win BOTAGOZ
★ 4.45 Goodwood (win 10 and stakes saver on Hamish)
BET 6.6pts win TENABILTY (nap)
BET 2.9pts win HAMISH
5.20 Goodwood (win 10)
BET 4.2pts win BLUE PRINCE
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