7-2 MIX GIVES DAQMAN FIVE NAPS OUT OF SIX: Daqman can’t stop napping winners. Pearl Mix (WON 7-2), in a BETDAQ-sponsored race at Kempton Park last night, took his current sequence to 1111F1, a fabulous five out of six, 14 from the last 23 to have completed the course.
WON 7-4 Dynaste (Friday)
WON 15-8 Far West (Saturday)
WON 11-10 Captain Conan (Sunday)
WON 3-10 Broadbackbob (Monday)
FELL Forever My Friend (‘getting on top’ when fell – Raceform)
WON 7-2 Pearl Mix (Wednesday)
ONE BET, ONE WINNER, AT DAQ VALUE: Pearl Mix was his only selection of the day in a race he picked for Daq Value. To prove his point, Pearl Mix was selected at 5.7 in morning exchanges on BETDAQ.
THREE LAYS IN A ROW: During this value-seeking, Daqman has spotted three false-priced horses. All were losers, despite screaming headlines that hyped two of them:
- Friday at Cheltenham: KID CASSIDY (unplaced 9-2 joint favourite): ‘mentally scarred.. too high in the handicap’, said Daqman.
- Saturday at Cheltenham: HUNT BALL (drifter, pulled up 9-1) nominated as a Place Lay in the Paddy Power. ‘Grossly flattered by his Cheltenham win, with the next eight home losing all their 19 races afterwards.’
- Wednesday at Hexham: CAUGHT IN THE ACT (unplaced 9-4 favourite): form last season after winning when fresh was 6P6P. ‘I’ll be laying him’ second time back.
Now do you want to ‘double’ and ‘treble’ your Daq Value? I have checked, and marked in my tips for, 24 races inside the last week or so and found that I got better value at morning offers on BETDAQ in 20 of them than I would have had at SP.
Some races had end-games which were a blatant rip-off by bookies, where there were morning BETDAQ offers in a 106% list (total probability for the race) but the SP totted up to a gross distortion at 129%. That particular margin didn’t just happen once; it happened on three occasions.
At the same time, I was stealthily spotting races with false favourites or rubbish hype. Like how the hell did Hunt Ball become so famous for winning a ‘nothing’ race?
Try to hit three areas: finding a race with a low percentage against you is to locate a punter-friendly zone where the return is good. Finding a horse in that race which is a bigger price than it should be is doubling your potential for value.
But finding a false favourite in a BETDAQ-value race is like winning the lotto or the old treble chance: lay the favourite and back your big-offers fancy in that double-value punter-friendly zone.
I just wish it wouldn’t rain so much; it soaks up some of our chances, drains away races where I know we could hit this treble chance! That’s the thing about racing: unlike a shoe of cards, or a roulette wheel, you have to play with the different material you are given on the day.
It’s a whole different ball game, and I know a very highly regarded poker professional who tried his hand at racing. ‘Stuff this for a game of soldiers’ was his response to the hole in his bank!
Though there is no permanent routine, there are, in the negative, these regular features of false favourites, hyped horses and massive-overround fixed odds. And the positives are the best trainers, the quality horses and races and those animals best adapting to the day’s conditions.
Today’s fare? A soggy Market Rasen (are there still hot peas and mint sauce?) and good old Kempton Park, which gave us that superb BETDAQ-sponsored Listed last night.
Rasen has four class 3 and 4 events but the novice hurdle (1.10) is a hard race to bet in. Some nice horses have come out of it, like five-times-a-subsequent-winner Attaglance and Becher Chase hero, Mr Pointment.
A longer trip (2m 3f today) round these tight turns teaches a young staying type speed and maneouvrability. He also needs some lungs up that final deceptive Rasen straight.
Tony McCoy prefers Josies Orders, Robert Thornton Uxizandre, and both have some hot potential in their early form, compared with Walkabout Creek, for Steve ‘Local Hero’ Gollings, though there was money for that one this morning at 7.2 on BETDAQ, where the trade paper was forecasting 10-1.
In the beginners’ chase, it will be interesting to see whether Blackwell Synergy – related only to Flat winners – can jump fences, though he had good form over hurdles in Ireland.
Changing Times has managed chase places on different ground but his jumping has been dodgy, blundering and hanging. The sort that may win, but you’d rather watch and applaud the trainer (in this case Twiston-Davies) if he’s straightened him out.
Steve Gollings again has potential for an upset with Soudain, a Dom Alco (sire of Al Ferof) but he’s a massive offer at 18.0. Not the seeming confidence that has cramped the odds of stablemate Walkabout Creek.
So you are left with Monturgeon, placed seven times out of eight in points and over hurdles, with Alan King ‘hopeful’ he’ll make a chaser. I prefer him at 3.95 than Changing Times at 1.82 this morning in a 108% BETDAQ orange.
O Crotaigh (2.10), who beat Midnight Sail on the course in March, could be ready now after three quick autumn runs but has 85 lengths to make up on Mister Hyde on October form at Carlisle.
Dawn Commander blundered his chances away at Aintree and Uttoxeter but is a 3m Market Rasen course winner over hurdles. The ground, first-time visors and A P McCoy should swing it for Mister Hyde (2.77 in a 106% list of offers.
The final race of a fair-decent class (2.40) tots up to 108% offers, as I write. They’ve come for the potential improver, Ulis De Vassy, in to 4.3 at time of writing..
Like O Crotaigh’s situationin the earlier race, Ulis De Vassy has a million miles to make up on Red Hot Poker on October form. He might well do so, but needed two runs last season, albeit educational ones then for a youngster starting out.
So far, Likerollingstone has failed to perform on soft or heavy; Markadam may need the run; Jasper Massini failed to last this kind of trip at Cartmel; and there’s been no money for Rock Relief in his two runs back, though that could change today.
Flemi Two Toes has won before after a long break, and also has a Folkestone success on heavy ground on his CV, but he flopped on his handicap debut and has changed stables. It all starts to make that 4.3 Ulis De Vassy read good.
Though Steve Gollings has home chances, he also plays away at Kempton Park with Into Wain (6.40), a reliable three-times-AW winner. Snag is that Estedaama’s on a roll and Be Perfect, returned to a man-made surface, could up his game after two runs back.
Be Perfect is the ‘wrong’ price at offers of 11.0 in a 107% list on the BETDAQ orange this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 6.7pts win MONTURGEON (1.40 Market Rasen)
DAQ VALUE BET: 11.2pts win (nap) MISTER HYDE (2.10 Market Rasen)
DAQ VALUE BET: 4.3pts win ULIS DE VASSY (2.40 Market Rasen)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2pts win and place BE PERFECT (6.40 Kempton Park)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
