WHO’S HIT THREE NAPS OUT OF FOUR? DAQMAN, OF COURSE: Who’s Cross (WON 7-4) was part of a double whammy at Ludlow, in which Daqman backed the winner and dared to lay the losing odds-on favourite. It followed 9-4 (Monday) and 2-1 (Tuesday) winning best bets at the start of the week.
THAT’S SIX OUT OF SEVEN LAYS: Bullet Street (2nd 10-11) was the horse that fired a blank on yesterday’s hit list as his sixth successful lay from the last seven, following another brave punt on Saturday against a Paul Nicholls favourite, Lac Fontana (3rd 9-4).
85 POINTS PROFIT ON NAPS AND LAYS: That takes his naps to 37.93 points profit for 2013 from 18 winning bets so far with 47.50 from 11 successful lays from 15, a total of more than 85 points in the first two months of the year. See Daqman Library.
1.50 Newbury Penalised novices giving the weight away are a sitting duck, and paper-favourite Handazan was opposed early doors, out to 5.5 on BETDAQ, with ex-Flat hurdles debutants Gassin Golf (Triumph Hurdle entry) and Rosslyn Castle all the rage.
There’s too much we don’t know (like how good is Flat winner Oscan after being gelded), so not a betting race for me.
2.20 Newbury Note that Alan King’s runner, Kenai Peninsula, is stranded with a penalty at the top of the card for this, just as his Handazan is in the opener. Hasn’t Kingy heard of handicaps?
Another Cheltenham entry – still in several novice events – David Pipe’s Off The Wall was easy to back in the BETDAQ market this morning, so no Ballynagour, unless it steams later in the day.
Both Henderson runners were drifters, and the Hobbs (Berkeley Baron) was not wanted at 38.0. Silver Eagle could improve and, if I were you, I would keep an eye on Regal Presence (21.0), now stepped up in trip, though his future lies over fences.
Ruby Walsh’s reason for being here for the weekend early – apart from riding out the Ditcheat Cheltenham winners! – is sole-ride-of-the-day Italian Master and the market (he’s 3.6, as I write) is making it clear that he will be hard to beat in his first attempt to claw back a £240,000 price tag.
2.55 Newbury (Geoffrey Gilbey Trophy) Ballywatt has been the bridesmaid more often than Miranda, with 22223 figures in Points and 32223 under Rules.
Silver Roque, the likely favourite, has also placed many more times than he’s won but needs today’s surface to show his best and is down a grade here, so is the one most likely to.
Sew On Target has also kept classy company but his success, and recent runs in high-grade novice events, have all been on heavy ground.
Wessex King is looking round for another parking place before the finish (PP and going for the hat-trick), while 21f-winner Heez A Cracker is surely too one-paced for this now that the ground is drying out. Though he’s 10 now, Keki Buku still has jumping problems.
3.30 Newbury Though this is seemingly open, all bar three have retreated beyond the 10-1 mark at time of writing, as trading has been brisk for Representingceltic and Savant Bleu, while Sir Frank has hung on to favouritism but with plenty in the pot at 3.6 not yet taken.
He promised well on the last day but, then, so did my local pub (‘free beer tomorrow’ said the sign in the bar and we’re still waiting).
Before his first try chasing, and his recent return with a hat-trick in bumpers, Representingceltic was third in an Ascot hurdle more than four lengths in front of a 108-rated (name of Wyck Hill, would you believe) with a subsequent 118 in fifth and a 110 a lap behind in sixth.
Off 105 today, he seems 7lb-plus well in at least. But this is fences not hurdles and there’s still that doubt raised by his one run in a chase at 100-1, beaten some 20 lengths.
At the offers, Savant Bleu (7.6) looks a safer conveyance, as a winner in all three disciplines of bumper, hurdle and chase. I would have thought he’s a solid each-way.
4.35 Newbury An open race in a punter-friendly BETDAQ list of offers. Venetia Williams in terrific form with her current figures a superb 11031123103411 but her runner here (Reginaldinho) is up in the weights.
He tried to ‘get underneath’ the handicapper’s measure of his easy win at the end of January by turning out again within seven days but that ruse failed and he’s now been ‘tonked’ 9lb.
And it is noticeable that Reginaldinho has been kept to right-hand tracks in seven of his last eight races, at Hereford, Leicester (two wins) and Ludlow. His two excursions lefthanded have resulted in failure, the last one a fall at Warwick.
The reverse may be the case for Roll The Dice, who had Reginaldinho behind him on today’s course in November, then won at Ludlow, despite jumping left all the time. His trainer, Philip Hobbs, has had a better burst of form recently, which could carry Roll The Dice along with it.
Paddy Brennan, who rides Silver Roque earlier, could be looking for a double on his recent Doncaster winner Back Bob Back, though the gelding’s CV shouts ‘once a year winner’. He doesn’t hold his form that well (his results after a win are 24P).
Another ‘Bob,’ Buffalo Bob, has won three times off higher marks than today, including over further on today’s course. But blinkers for the first time at the age of 10 are worrying. He must have gotten a bit like me: dozy when working in the mornings.
DONCASTER Brother Scott (2.10) is ‘running loose’, getting a stone from all bar three of the others, and with the ground right for the first time over hurdles: 24.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I see him trying to make all the running (bet and lay).
For a day’s third consecutive non-handicap novice hurdle, Alan King has the penalized runner. Call Me A Star (3.20) should confirm superiority over September Blaze (twice beaten him already, on the last day by two lengths).
But September Blaze was left struggling a million miles behind Grimley Girl at Ludlow, and the ‘Girl’ – a Point winner – couldn’t get up the hill in heavy ground at Towcester.
At 13.5 a front-runner, this is another bet-and-lay bet which could give an odds-on favourite something to think about on this much-sounder surface.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.8pts win and place BROTHER SCOTT (2.10 Doncaster)
BET 7.6pts win (nap) ITALIAN MASTER (2.20 Newbury)
BET 6.7pts win SILVER ROQUE (2.55 Newbury)
BET 1.6pts win and place GRIMLEY GIRL (3.20 Doncaster)
BET 3pts win and place SAVANT BLEU (3.30 Newbury)
BET 4.4pts win ROLL THE DICE (4.35 Newbury)
• Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points.
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