8-1 TOUCH FOR DAQMAN AT SANDOWN: Saturday-king Daqman fired a warning for Cheltenham yesterday when he landed his customary weekend winners with Close Touch (WON 8-1) and Soll (WON 7-2).
REBEL LAY WITHOUT A CAUSE: After the trainer’s fair warning about the heavy ground, Daqman went for a lay on Rebel Rebellion. Says our man: ‘In the event the animal loved it heavy and, after Nicholls’ remarks, became a price you could get out on.’
GROUNDS FOR FANCYING FLY: Today Daqman looks at the ratings for the Champion Hurdle, building in, algorithm style, extra points for ability on soft ground. It shot Hurricane Fly well clear.
The Champion Hurdle could be a soft touch for Hurricane Fly. Cheltenham warns that the going will be soft on all four days and, when I weighted the official ratings for Tuesday’s title with ability on soft ground, Fly shot clear of his field.
I gave each horse two extra points for a win on soft or heavy in English and Irish all-age races and one point for novice events.
HURRICANE FLY (190) His soft-heavy successes are legion. In the Leopardstown Irish Champion Hurdle (three times), the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, the Istabraq Hurdle, the Hattons Grace Hurdle and in his youth the Punchestown Champion Novice, to name but a few, as they say. His Cheltenham championship in 2011 was on good ground.
BINOCULAR (172) It was good to soft when Binocular landed the title in 2010, but he’s won only the Kingwell and a Listed race at Sandown on the soft as a senior hurdler.
ZARKANDAR (171) In the last three months has beaten Khyber Kim in the Kingwell, and Grandouet and Rock On Ruby in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, both in deep ground.
ROCK ON RUBY (170) Rock On Ruby and Cotton Mill are the only horses in Tuesday’s race not to have won on soft or heavy – Ruby’s Champion Hurdle last year was on officially good ground – although it can be said that his only run in deep terrain was his seasonal return, behind Zarkandar.
GRANDOUET (166) He won on soft-heavy in France but had not raced on worse than good to soft until attempting back to back wins in the Cheltenham International on heavy in December and was beaten by Zarkandar. But it was his first run back.
CINDERS AND ASHES (153) After three wins in a row on soft and heavy, ‘Cinders’ found the magic slipper in winning the Supreme Novice Hurdle (good) last March, though his form is ashes this season so far.
BALDER SUCCESS (152) Highly regarded at home but has won only one race outside novice company, a soft-ground four-runner affair at Haydock. Well behind Zarkandar on heavy in the Kingwell.
KYBER KIM (151) Has won two Graded races on the soft at Cheltenham, including the International in 2009.
COTTON MILL (150) Had raced mainly on a sound surface – though some cut in one of his novice wins – until first run back defeat on the soft in a Newbury handicap in February.
TODAY: At Market Rasen, the local runner, Bowie (2.50), is returning to the scene of his bumper career after a decent second over hurdles last time.
Tipsy Gypsy was easy to back this morning, with Lucky Landing in demand but that one’s six runs at Rasen have had only one happy landing and that was over fences. Rain Mac needs a sound surface, if his Flat form is any guide.
The rain having scuppered forecast-favourites Lord Grantham and Abbey Storm (3.50), Faultless Feelings is in the driving seat. The course should suit his keen-going ways but he had to return from handicaps to a modest novice heat to get off the mark on the last day.
Talkin Sence likes the ground but the handicapper has hiked him a stone since December’s Kelso success. The going seems to have gone against Crowning Jewel and Dawn Twister is just holding his own, not showing improvement.
Simonside is back from chasing but is 10 now and the one I like is Sixtiy Something (7.8 on BETDAQ, as I write), back to his class only 3lb higher than when winning at Bangor, not disgraced a grade higher on the last day.
Warwick has a stayers’ struggle (4.00), which should be run at a fast pace with Ringa Bay and Pensnett Bay both front-runners.
Course-specialist Trigger The Light, last year’s winner, is back in his class but must give weight all round; he’s 12 now and Mon Mome 13. I fancy Petitfour who, sharpened up over hurdles, was the moral on today’s course last time, beaten half a length giving 5lb to the winner.
Petitfour was gaining on Trigger The Light at the death, when they were third and fifth at Haydock in November, and it could be close again.
The step up in trip may suit Trigger’s stablemate, Uxizandre (3.00). Both he and Timeishard have kept good company without themselves beating much.
And I was taken with Woodford County’s emergence from Points success when he galloped up the Towcester hill over today’s trip. Philip Hobbs team was then out of form.
‘All he’s done is impress us, since he came over from Ireland,’ says Richard Johnson of this future chaser. I’ll go nap at 4.5.
Hobbs has had three winners in March and is always reckoned to gear up for the Cheltenham Festival. I hope that 4.5 gears up my Festival bank, too.
The Leinster National at Naas (4.40) usually goes to a bottomweight (10st 4lb or less), but Paddy Pub, the track specialist, is comparatively fresh, clearly been laid out for the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win BOWIE (2.50 Market Rasen)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) WOODFORD COUNTY (3.00 Warwick)
BET 2.9pts win SIXTY SOMETHING (3.50 Market Rasen)
BET 5.,5pts win TRIGGER THE LIGHT and 3.4pts win PETITFOUR (4.00 Warwick)
BET 3.1pts win PADDY PUB (4.40 Naas)
* Daqman’s bets are to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
