12-1 WINNER AS CAPTAIN DAQMAN HITS FORM FOR AINTREE: Daqman delivered big time yesterday. Despite the 22-runner field, he named first and second in the Graded hurdle at Fairyhouse: Captain Arceus (WON 12-1) and Sizing Machine (2nd 8-1), which paid 110.09 computer forecast with Ladbrokes.
22.0 JACKPOT BET FOR SATURDAY’S BIG RACE: Today he lifts the lid on the changes to the Grand National, and spots a young chaser reckoned by the stats to be in the top seven for Saturday’s race: 22.0 on BETDAQ.
THE END OF THE NATIONAL AS WE KNOW IT: There have been modifications to the fences, including softer cores, a change to the start of the race (a shorter run to the first fence) and in the going (it must now be on the soft side of good). But Daqman says the National is already a different race from the ones we used to know.
SPOT THE TREND IN DAQMAN’S HORSE-BY-HORSE GUIDE: His ABC Guide below checks out the changes as he goes along. Each key letter starts with the current trend and then spots the change from the old.
A: AGE 9 to 10 (13 out of the last 17). CHANGE: Before that 7 out of 10 had been aged 11 and 12.
B: WEIGHT: This century’s winners have carried 10st 8lb to 11st 6lb (10 out of 13). CHANGE: Before that 10 out of 10 had carried 10st to 10st 8lb
C: RATING: The last four winners have scored off ratings of 148, 153, 150 and 157. CHANGE: In the six years before that five winners were rated 138 and 139.
D: Graded-race experience (9-10) so the pattern is now producing 90% of the winners.
E: Has won a chase over 3m or more and last ran in February or March (10-10)
X FACTOR: Horses which have never fallen are marked with an ‘X’ at the end of their ABC list.
Fancy being King for a day at Aintree with a 22.0 winner! That’s the morning offer on BETDAQ about Balthazar King, who has had the Grand National as his target since cross-country racing transformed him last year. I’ll take that 22.0 to land a jackpot 50 points (stake 2.4).
The Somerset-trained son of Kings Theatre found the unusual obstacles and marathon trip brought out the best in him last March in the Cheltenham Festival banks race and this renewed interest was carried forward to regulation fences when he scored again in October.
Remember Silver Birch? With form-figures of PPF for Paul Nicholls in 2006, he switched to Gordon Elliott, and finished second tackling the big banks at Punchestown and second again in the Cheltenham cross-country before winning the 2007 Grand National.
ABCDEX Across The Bay From the McCain yard responsible for National winners Red Rum, Ballabriggs and Amberleigh House. Not certain to stay (by same sire as Joncol).
Classy hurdler but impressively beat Cappa Bleu on heavy ground over fences in November after a wind op, though weakened under big weight in the Welsh National.
ABCDEX Joncol Ultra consistent, in the frame in 18 starts out of 21. Punchestown Chase winner 2009 and took Irish Hennessy in 2010 but only third in the same race in February this year. All success on soft-heavy and stamina for this not guaranteed. Jockey (Robbie Power) has won the race before.
ABCDEX Teaforthree Runner-up to Join Together at Cheltenham as a novice, beat Harry The Viking to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham last year. Seen only four times since, including second in this year’s Welsh National.
ABCDE On His Own Thyestes winner before he came down (going well), squeezed out at second Bechers in last year’s National. Just the one run since, winning Grade-2 Boyne Hurdle in February, so keeping his chase rating down for this.
ABCDE Quinz Lost his way after winning 2011 Racing Post Chase, and burst blood-vessel in 2011 National. Ran excellent race, fourth, back after long absence in the same Racing Post race in February. Must have top of the ground. ANNOUNCED NON RUNNER THIS MORNING
ABCDE Seabass After being unbeaten in seven chases (one a Point) was strongly fancied at 8-1 (SP) for last year’s National, jumping well and up with the pace throughout until just fading run-in. Now 5lb better for five lengths with runner-up Sunnyhillboy and showed himself in fine fettle, third in the Bobbyjo Chase in February.
ABCD Balthazar King Failed to make step up from classy novice-chase career but cross-country course at Cheltenham revitalised him at the 2012 festival and he was second in a similar race in November.
Not seen since and has clearly targeted the National: won his last three starts when fresh. Needs a sound surface.
ABCD Sunnyhillboy Is 10lb higher than when beaten a nose in last year’s National, jumping the last clear but faltering in the final 100 yards. Has prepped over hurdles and Tony McCoy must decide between this one and Colbert Station.
ABCD Tatenen Top novice for Paul Nicholls but lost his way until taking 2011 Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot for Richard Rowe (after successful wind op) and did the double in 2012.
Stayed on well in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last month.
ABCE Colbert Station Came to prominence over fences when winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December and followed up over hurdles. Tony McCoy, who has won three races on him, including those back-to-back wins, is impressed. But the horse likes it soft.
ACDE Quel Esprit Jumping let him down as a novice but completed hat-trick a year ago, culminating in Irish Hennessy win over Roberto Goldback. Badly in need of the run when returning in the same race in February, last of four. Suited by some cut and saved for the National.
ACDE Weird Al Set up a sequence as a dashing novice chaser for the McCain stable and won the 2011 Charlie Hall at Wetherby but not in the same form since, albeit highly tried, and got as far as four out in the National last year. Dropped 3lb. Always works like a winner at home.
ACDE What A Friend Hennessy Gold Cup runner-up to Denman (2009) who went for the National of 2011 after fourth to Long Run in the Gold Cup. Good run until tiring second Bechers, possibly feeling his Cheltenham exertions, and has had just one run back this time, after 10 months’ off.
ADEX Any Currency Missed the cut by one last year. Grade-3 placed twice, including Sandown Gold Cup a year ago. Going well in Becher Chase in December until unseated rider at Canal Turn.
ADEX Tarquinius Superbus run of form – 233211142 – since last summer, including excellent second in Thyestes Chase in January, staying on well under Davy Condon.
ADE Chicago Grey Disappointing favourite for Scottish National after NH Chase win at Cheltenham 2011 (going good) and brought down early on in last year’s Aintree original. Poor form since until winning Red Mills trial at Navan in February (heavy) after wind op. Paul Carberry a big plus.
ADE Major Malarkey Two novice chases in 2010 are his only wins over fences, but has run well in marathon races, close second in Midlands Grand National and London National, but surprising if he copes with the big fences.
ADE Pearlysteps Peter Marsh runner-up in January last year, had peaked at the same time the previous year when third to The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham. The handicapper has dropped him 10lb but he was a long way behind when tackling a marathon trip in the NH Chase at Cheltenham (2011).
ADE The Rainbow Hunter Modest form until won his final race of last season and his first run back. Must have good ground.
ADX Mr Moonshine Put into the pattern after solid novice form and unplaced in 2012 RSA Chase. Charlie Hall and Rowland Meyrick seconds (in October and December) suggest that Wetherby is his track.
AD Becauseicouldntsee Runner-up to Sunnyhillboy in Kim Muir (2012). Fifth same race in March; otherwise not much to show for his seven runs since. Fell in last year’s National.
AD Ninetieth Minute Coral Cup winner over hurdles at Cheltenham Festival (2009) but 15lb lower as a chaser. Fell (15th) when fancied for the Irish Grand National.
AD Poker De Sivola Another NH Chase winner at Cheltenham (2010) and took Sandown Gold Cup (2011), both races on a sound surface. No form to speak of since, stable having had a poor season.
AD Quiscover Fontaine Fell second Bechers, going quite well, as a 50-1 outsider last year. Has won just once, and that was over hurdles, in 12 starts over the last three years.
BCDEX Forpadydeplaster One-time champion novice, winner of the Cheltenham Arkle (2009), and runner-up 2010 Champion Chase. Continued to keep top company but just one win in four years.
BCDE Always Waining Won the Topham Trophy over the National fences three years running and fourth in the Becher Chase. Poor form in two runs this season and doubtful he stays this far.
BCDE Ballabriggs The National winner of 2011 who was sixth off a 10lb higher mark last year. Back down in the weights and, though modest form in two runs this year, is earning bullish words at home from trainer McCain.
BCDE Big Fella Thanks Sixth in Mon Mome’s National (2009) and fourth to Don’t Push It (2010), both for Paul Nicholls, he was then seventh for Ferdy Murphy behind Ballabriggs (2009). Third in the Becher Chase in December for Tom George and has held his form well since but that’s cost him and he must carry his highest National weight this year.
BCDE Cappa Bleu Excellent fourth last year, despite arduous third earlier in Welsh National. Swerved Chepstow this time around and ran a good trial, first run back at Ascot in February. Paul Moloney a plus.
BCDE Join Together Paul Nicholls probably picked the wrong race when he missed the NH Chase in 2012 and pulled up in the RSA. Back to form, beaten a neck in the Becher Chase over the big fences in December, only his seventh steeplechase. Last year’s winning jockey will ride.
BCDE Roberto Goldback Had Join Together back in seventh when winning the United House Gold Cup at Ascot in November, returning to form after 18 months without success, though had run second in the Irish Hennessy in that time.
BCDE Treacle A faller last year when strongly fancied, the former Munster National winner was racing 12lb higher than when a close second in the Paddy Power Chase (November 2011) on his return to form at Down Royal last month.
BCD Oscar Time Irish Grand National runner-up (2010) and second again to Ballabriggs in the 2011 Grand National. Had to miss last year’s race through injury. Poor form this season.
BDE Saint Are Won the John Smiths Chase at the Aintree meeting of April 2012, giving him form figures on the different Liverpool courses of 121. But fell in this season’s Hennessy and well behind in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
BDE Swing Bill Did well to complete last year (first-time cheekpieces) after being hampered and excellent fourth in the Becher Chase in December. But he’s 12 now.
BX Lost Glory (J P McManus and Jonjo O’Neill). Has never fallen and always completed the course in 20 Rules races. Four wins out of five culminating in good performance at Chepstow but not on Tony McCoy’s short-list.
DEX Harry The Viking Disappointing since four in a row novice hurdling and chasing, and when seeming a top-class stayer in the making, second to Teaforthree in the NH Chase at Cheltenham a year ago. Has looked overfaced since and down 2lb on that festival form. Likes the going on top.
DEX Rare Bob Has never fallen in 28 chases. Fifth in Becher Chase of 2011 but brought down early on in 2012 National. Good run, fourth (Seabass third) in Bobbyjo Chase and again when third off top weight in the Leinster National a month ago.
DEX Soll Unexposed after only seven Rules races. Strongly fancied for 2012 NH Chase at Cheltenham (brought down). Fair eighth in the Hennessy but best form in 14 months was when winning small-field 3m-plus chase at Sandown on heavy.
DE Auroras Encore Listed chase winner, second in the Scottish Grand National a year ago but not in the same form since, albeit overfaced in Graded chases.
DE Backstage Winner of seven successive point-to-points but pulled up in Foxhunter at Cheltenham, and last regulation win under Rules was in August 2009.
DE Viking Blond Fell as an 80-1 chance last year. Good third in stayers’ race at Cheltenham in November but heavy ground against him since.
DX Imperial Commander Cheltenham Gold Cup winner of 2010, after taking the Ryanair the previous year, and followed up by winning the BF Chase at Haydock. But only two runs since because of injury, pulled up in 2011 Gold Cup and courageous second in the Argento this January.
Potential ‘bounce’ factor on second run back is no worse others: his second-race record after a long break (431P0U) includes being pulled up in a bog at Punchestown and unseating his rider.
D Mumbles Head Spring-summer hat-trick last year on Northern tracks but fell when he tried the National fences (Becher Chase, December). Pulled up since.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7pts win MONTJESS and 1.8pts win AMANDA WOLF (2.50 Southwell)
BET 5.5pts win BEAUTY PAGEANT (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win COOL BARANCA and 2.5pts win DORMOUSE (3.40 Wetherby)
BET 12pts win (nap) FAMOUSANDFEARLESS (5.40 Wetherby)
BET 3.4pts win FLEXIBLE FLYER (7.30 Kempton, BETDAQ race)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 2.5pts win double REAL MILAN (3.10 Wetherby) and Famousandfearless (5.40 Wetherby)
ANTE-POST WIN-50 JACKPOT: BET 2.4pts win BALTHAZAR KING @ 22.0 (Liverpool Grand National, Saturday).
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
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