The preamble to today’s Scottish Grand National has centred around Auroras Encore and the ground.
On Wednesday they were predicting good to soft ground, then they had a deluge on Wednesday afternoon and through Wednesday night, and there was talk of the meeting not being in doubt (every time you read that the meeting is not in doubt you tend to think that the meeting must be in doubt). There was standing water on the track and the money flooded in for the soft ground horses.
Then yesterday at Ayr, the sun shone.
They changed the ground from soft after the first race yesterday to good to soft, soft in places. They were getting home all right yesterday, it looks like those soft places have disappeared overnight, so, it might be a bit tacky, as drying ground tends to go, but we could have perfect National Hunt racing ground this afternoon.
That gives Auroras Encore a chance of sorts. It is great that the Grand National hero is set to line up now, and that Ryan Mania has recovered from his scary-looking air-ambulance-lifting fall at Hexham the day after the National in order to take the ride.
You can argue the case for him. He has a lot of weight, but this is not as classy a Scottish National as we usually get, and consequently there is a chance that, unusually, the highweights will have their chance. He is a spring horse, he goes well at Ayr, the ground is coming in his favour, and he is only 5lb higher today than the mark off which he was just nutted by Merigo in last year’s renewal. He was 15 lengths clear of the third horse last year so, had Merigo not been in the race, he probably would have had the winning of last year’s race off today’s mark.
However, it is going to be a tough task for Sue Smith’s horse. The fact remains that nine of the last 11 winners of the race carried 10st 9lb or less, it is a lowweights race. Also, he was trained for the race last year. This year, he was trained for the Aintree Grand National, this is an after-thought, and he is 11lb higher now than he would have been had he not run at Aintree.
You don’t win an Aintree Grand National without having had a hard race, and it is no coincidence that Red Rum in 1974 is the last horse to win both races in the same year. Aintree was only two weeks ago and, admirable performer though Auroras Encore is, it is not difficult to be against him.
I backed Monsieur Cadou earlier in the week when it looked like the ground wasn’t going to be too bad, I tore up the ticket when the deluge came, and I went scrambling about with sellotape and Pritstick when it started to dry out again. (I also backed Beneficial Reform, but no need for the sellotape with that one. Pity, he would have had a chance now that the ground isn’t going to be too bad.)
Monsieur Cadeau has good form on soft and heavy ground, but the best performance of his career by some way was the performance that he put up on his most recent appearance in the Tim Molony Chase at Haydock three weeks ago on good to soft ground. He travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out that day, and he found lots when Alain Cawley gave him a squeeze to beat King Fontaine as easily as he liked.
He has been raised 12lb for that, but it is difficult to argue that he didn’t win with at least that much in hand. He has improved significantly for the step up to these marathon trips, and he gets to race off a lovely racing weight of just 10st 4lb today. As an eight-year-old, he is a good age for the race and, with just six runs over fences on his cv, he has lots of scope for progression. Tom George has his horses in good form, and it is easy to see Monsieur Cadou out-perform odds of around 16.
Our Mick and Nuts N Bolts and Problema Tic are all interesting at decent prices, but the other horse who is worth having on side at the prices is Auroras Encore’s stable companion Fill The Power. Sue Smith’s horse has been racing like a step up to this type of trip would suit all season, he was just out-paced by Night Force over three miles on good ground at Doncaster last month, and he has good form with good horses like Wyck Hill and Rocky Creek over the shorter trips.
He did step up to four miles for the Midlands National last time, but the ground at Uttoxeter that day was just too soft for him, and heavy ground at Uttoxeter is like heavy ground nowhere else, so you can easily forgive him that. He is well worth another try over four miles on much better ground.
He is only seven, but he is all stamina, he should stay the trip, and he has enough experience to be tough enough for this type of test. He has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lb, and a mark of 130, 5lb below his peak, could under-estimate his ability by a fair way. He has raced just eight times over fences, so has the scope to improve and, with Ryan Mania obviously staying loyal to the Grand National winner, Dougie Costello is a good booking. He has been backed this morning, but he still looks over-priced at around 22.
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