WHAT’S IN A NAME? THE WINNER OF THE 1,000 GUINEAS: Daqman feels led astray by the Toronado hype yesterday but today a French filly beckons him to make the Snap decision and oppose another Hot favourite in another Gold Value BETDAQ Classic. What A Name for a winner!
THREE NAPS UP OUT OF FOUR: Daqman landed his third winning nap out of four when Duke Of Firenze (WON 6-4) scored at Goodwood yesterday, following Fencing (WON 9-2, Wednesday) and Mont Ras (WON 9-4, Thursday). His naps sequence is now 1121.
GOLD-VALUE BETDAQ ALL DAY: It’s not just in the 1,000 Guineas. Daqman found Gold Value BETDAQ lists of offers at 106%, 103% and as low as 101%, tempting him to a Banker Lay and more jackpot betting.
Just how many more champions can the genuine punter swallow? Are we to abandon the winning way of opposing the favourite? The problem with the Frankels, Sprinter Sacres, Hurricane Flys and Dawn Approachs that are coming in bucketloads these days is that they quickly become unbackable.
Yesterday’s Classic was a straight choice: do you take last year’s champion against this year’s new kid on the block? We are left gasping at the outcome: what on earth was all that hulabuloo about Toronado? He’s no more than a Jersey Stakes winner at best, on yesterday’s showing.
So we know one thing hasn’t changed: don’t believe anything you hear or read in the Press (particularly from trainer and jockey).
What about the 1,000 Guineas, then? Last year’s filly or this? The hype or the hottest form? The known fillies or the dark ones?
Something else hasn’t changed, and that’s why we must stick to our principles, confident that things will come our way: BETDAQ is queen of the 1,000 as well as king of the 2,000.
After yesterday’s super-value 103% list in the orange (SP Total 116%), the exchange offers again tot up to 103 this morning and no way should you fall for the offerings and beckonings elsewhere which last year produced an SP overround of a massive 123% in this race, the equivalent of giving away nearly a quarter of your stake.
2.05 Newmarket Favourites flop like Toronados year on year in this race – bar one in the decade – so that the 106% list of offers in the orange becomes a player’s paradise of 100-72 (at this morning’s prices), if we oppose Stencive. But can we?
Silver Lime and Sueigoo are right on top of him on July Course form at HQ and at Ascot in September, at the revised weights, suggesting that he must improve to carry 9st 10lb. Only one horse has done that in this race recently (Times Up 2011).
Opinion also has claims to reverse the Ascot placings of last September, badly hampered that day, looking for room.
The worry about Opinion – a 1m 2f winner – is that he wasn’t in the least ‘expected’ that day at Ascot (at 25-1) and he seems far too easy to back again today: 15.5 as I write.
Willie Wag Tail was another one hampered (when fourth at York in August) but that was when favourite to win a classy handicap. However, I have him down – until he proves otherwise – as one who creates his own trouble in running.
In the end you can’t avoid Fennel Bay (8.6 on BETDAQ), back to form recently and a winner at this level at Royal Ascot off a 3lb lower mark so not raised in class at all.
2.35 Newmarket (GOLD VALUE) Yes, the BETDAQ ‘book’ is an incredible 101%, as I write. Yes, I’m opposing the favourite. Yes, it’s more Gold Value.
I simply can’t have Shirocco Star, despite his good form in Group 2, and second (on the soft) in a Group 1. He’s just too unreliable for me as a win bet. A bridesmaid with form figures 2232422, he has never won beyond his maiden.
Thistle Bird and Chigun are Listed level – and only a neck apart on Newmarket form in September – so, despite the Group-3 penalty, I’m going for Dank at a fabulous 6.8 on BETDAQ.
Dank loves firm ground and has been ‘working the house down’, according to Ryan Moore, who is back from Kentucky playing catch-up at this Guineas meeting. Trainer Stoute is 11110 in this race.
With those bridesmaid form figures, Shirocco Star is a classic lay. I’m still in front, despite a ghastly mistake last time and, if I am to make something of this Guineas weekend, I need to put my head down and go, go, go! So he’s my first Banker Lay.
If it loses (and he wins), I will no doubt wring my hands, and tell the bank manager: ‘I know! I promised myself I would never listen to another jockey!’
3.10 Newmarket (VALUE) I don’t know whether it’s Stan or James, but one leading bookmaker was 52 points worse than BETDAQ – if you tot up the difference in offers, horse by horse – in yet another Value race (only 108% in the orange this morning, though the SP Total returned last year was a staggering 132%).
The grey Shropshire was the neck runner-up that day (now 9lb higher) but the going was good to soft, as for all his turf wins. Gabriel’s Lad, Ladyship, Pearl Ice and Whaileyy have also won only with cut in the ground on turf, and 7.0 the field is an indication of the ‘ifs and buts’ in the form book. There is a possible edge.
A single-figure draw is normally best in this, and that was borne out yesterday, with the 3 and 9 stalls winning the sprints from big fields.
But only Ladyship (stall 13) of the front-runners in the market seems kyboshed by her stalls position, though I’m also knocking out the old boys, Hitchens and Johannes, since young horses (4 and 5) have taken this race in nine of the last 10 years.
Though the handicap is supposedly the equalizer, lower-class horses in sprints literally don’t have the speed: so out go Al Khan, Goldream and Poole Harbour.
The verdict has to be for Hamza. He’s beaten Gabriel’s Lad on similar terms and he’s better off with second and third, Shropshire and Hitchens, on Doncaster form in April when he was the only one of the three without a previous run.
With Kieren Fallon terrific form when banished to Goodwood yesterday, I shall have to back Gabriel’s Lad, who also has good form on a sound surface, despite winning only with cut: 7.2 and 8.0 for a dutch.
3.50 Newmarket (GOLD VALUE, 1,000 Guineas) I ask the same question again: last year’s form or this? Go back to my ABC Guide (Friday in the Daqman Archive) or check out the runners, filly by filly, like this:
Last year: Just The Judge completed a hat-trick in the Rockfel. Maureen, the Cherry Hinton runner-up, won the Princess Margaret but ran poorly in the Cheveley Park.
After Group-3 success, What A Name was beaten only by the colt, Olympic Glory. Sky Lantern won a Group 1 in September. Ollie Olga beat her in a Group-3 at Goodwood.
This year: Hot Snap (pictured) was impressive in the Nell Gwyn, beating Sky Lantern. Maureen won the Fred Darling but with Agent Allison coming off the pace, too.
Snow Queen was third in one of Ireland’s Guineas trials, while What A Name won the trusted French Spring test, the Prix Imprudence.
Verdict: If we concentrate on fillies common to both sets of form, this year and last, we have to find against Sky Lantern, second best in both seasons.
We have to find that Maureen is an in-and-out performer, and we have to go for What A Name, as close to the top of the pile, colts and fillies, in 2012 and winner of a reliable trial in 2013.
Hot Snap is the equivalent of Toronado (she won this Spring but can you place your faith in it?); Just The Judge is the Dawn Approach (done nothing wrong but has she trained on?).
Of the dark’uns, I would fancy Rasmeyaa – by the same sire as Dawn Approach – and I thought Agent Allison too big the other day at 33.0. I was wrong – she’s 40.0, as I write – or she is a massive blot in the market: I doubt the latter but you never know what’s hidden in a yard that’s currently low on form and ambition.
Market dictates: Just The Judge and Maureen seem far too easy to back at 8.2 and 18.0, and one or more of the lightly-raced sorts (Hot Snap, Moth and Rasmeyaa) will reach the frame behind What A Name (5.8 first choice).
Order in, 1-2-3-4: What A Name, Rasmeyaa, Hot Snap, Just The Judge.
DAQMAN’S BETS
GOLD-VALUE JACKPOT BET (win 30): 3.9pts win FENNELL BAY (2.05 Newmarket)
BANKER LAY: SHIROCCO STAR, and GOLD VALUE JACKPOT BET (win 30): 5pts win DANK (nap, 2.35 Newmarket)
VALUE BET (win 20): 3.2pts win HAMZA and 2.8pts win GABRIEL’S LAD (3.10 Newmarket)
GOLD-VALUE JACKPOT BET (win 40): 8.3pts win WHAT A NAME, 3.3pts win RASMEYAA. Plus already ante-post 1pt win AGENT ALLISON 33.0 (all 3.50 Newmarket)
This is an ‘above average’ day for Gold Value betting. For a full explanation, check out the Daqman Library.
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