The St Jude Classic would be a great time to tip a winner of a golf tournament for this correspondent. Certainly, Tiger Woods looked a solid lay last week and duly obliged as the World No.1 produced a ho-hum eight-over-par in the Memorial Tournament in Ohio. But tipping winners is what this game is about.
And the irony in the name of this week’s event is not lost on this beleaguered hack. For the Apostle Saint Jude Thaddeus is “The Miraculous Saint,” the Catholic Patron Saint “lost causes”. So, when all other avenues are closed, he is the one to call upon, and his help often comes at the last moment.
Lost cause Harrison Frazar was a veteran of 354 starts on tour before he won his first – and only – tournament in the 2011 St Jude Classic.
Having spent over two months on the sidelines with a back injury, Dustin Johnson thought 2012 was a lost cause, but in only his second start back, he won this tournament.
No doubt anyone who whacks themselves five times over the head with their own putter and bends the shaft thinks of themselves as something of a lost cause. Step forward (rather groggily) Albert Woody Austin, who did just that in the 1997 Verizon Heritage. His prayers were answered eventually, for 10 years later he won the St Jude Classic.
Could bad-boy golfers and lost causes be the ones to watch out for this week?
That strategy worked in 2000. Who could forget Notah Begay III’s victory, which came after a seven-day spell in jail a couple of months previously after being convicted of drink-driving?
Well, most people, actually.
Tiger is not playing, sadly. So no teeing off about numerous popsies, or about driving better on the fairway than he fairs on the driveway.
Should we go for long-shot John Daly, who is arguably more famous for his off-course escapades than what he has achieved on the fairways? A man who turned up for his second round at the 2007 St Jude Classic with cuts and scrapes across his face, claiming that his then-wife Sherrie attacked him with a steak knife after they fought at a restaurant in Memphis, Tennessee ? Daly is available at 985.0 with BETDAQ. Sadly there are no odds on JD’s fifth wedding. The man has rice marks.
Or should we plump for bad boy 14-year-old Guan Tianlang for failing to hand in his homework? The Chinese sensation is a 990.0 shot. (You’d balk at double those odds for getting out of bed before noon or tidying his room once a month).
Sean O’Hair will feel that Saint Jude has already answered his prayers, as Rick Reilly’s masterful column, highlighting the torment he suffered from his abusive father, outlines (read it here). There are worse 200.0 shots than O’Hair. Add in the fact that Sunday is Father’s Day in the UK, and he would be a very apt winner.
Low scoring is always probable at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, as there are few bunkers or hazards to capture tee shots. The par 70, 7,239-yard course is long and does favour the big hitters, even though there are 12 par 4s and only two par 5s, but you have to rank high in Greens In Regulation to succeed. In 2012, Southwind was the most difficult non-major par-70 course on the PGA Tour. The rough can be punishing as can the conditions – most players who do well here can handle the hot, sticky conditions that affect this area at this time of year. Fitness and patience will help. Par 4 scoring and those with solid putting stats should be kept in mind.
You need to have the patience of a saint as the winner of the tournament each year is given a blue and white seersucker jacket. Imagine turning up to your best friend’s wedding in jeans after glossing your woodwork, and you’ll soon realise that the winner gets brought down to earth quickly.
This is the final stop on the tour before the U.S. Open and Phil Mickelson heads a weak field where only 22 of the top 100 players are lining up. ‘Lefty’ is obviously using this as a tune-up for next week and while he has won the week before a major on multiple occasions, it is worth noting that no player has won this event before going on to win America’s oldest Major championship. Mickelson ranks 10th in Par 4 Birdie or Better percentage. He could easily dominate but just as easily implode on a course where he’s only played twice before, without too much success.
Mickelson is too big at around 16.0 to take on, even in this large field. He’s simply too good on a going day.
So here’s the five for the weekend…
Brandt Snedeker @ 15.5
With five cuts made from six starts at TPC Southwind, Snedeker has plenty of course experience. He had a T5 finish here in 2007 and was T15 last year. Nashville born and bred, he is 11th in GIR, 10th in Driving Accuracy percentage, 3rd in Birdie Average and has 170 birdies or eagles in 666 holes played. Crucially, he ranks 3rd in the Par Four Birdie or Better category. Snedeker has eight top 10 finishes this season and though his stats are somewhat front-loaded after a great start to the season, do not be put off by the fact that he missed the cut in the Memorial, as he had two top-eight finishes in his three starts after The Masters. In a weak field, he looks the most consistent among the ‘elite’ players teeing off.
Ryan Palmer @ 27.0
Palmer is much longer off the tee than Snedeker. In fact, he ranks ninth in Driving Distance. There is a lot to like about his other stats, too, notably 28th in GIR, T26 in Par 4 Performance and 16th in the category of Par 4 Birdie or Better. And he converts his chances a third of the time, holing 208 birdies from 624 greens hit. With six consecutive cuts made, with T15, T5 and T14 finishes, Palmer looks set to build on his three top-10s this season. The only downside is that he has missed the cut on three of his five visits to TPC Southwind. The upside is he’s finished inside the top 10 both times he’s made the cut (T3 and T10).
Charles Howell III @ 40.0
Howell ticks plenty of boxes. Born in Augusta and residing in Orlando, he is used to the likely humid conditions. The number you need to keep in mind is Par 4 Performance, where he ranks fourth. He’s long off the tee (ranking 36th), has reasonable GIR stats (49th) and is fourth in Scrambling. What you really should love about Howell is his hot putter. While a poor T66 at The Players, he was T10 at the Wells Fargo, T17 at the Byron Nelson and T21 at the Memorial, and gained strokes putting in each of those four events, including more than 1.5 strokes in each of his last two starts. He has decent course form, making the cut in four of his six starts, with a T3 in two top 10 finishes and is in decent form, with five top 10 finishes this season.
John Rollins @ 66.0
With just one top-10 finish this season and three missed cuts in his last six tournaments, there won’t be too many who would put much faith in Rollins gaining a fourth career victory. But of the 11 cuts he has made, nine have produced top 25 finishes and in his last two tournaments, the Byron Nelson and Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, he’s shot five rounds in the 60s. He’s 10th in GIR, 21st in Par 4 Birdie or Better, and is 30th in Driving Distance, all stats you can go to war with. A T4 last week shows he’s ready to challenge again.
David Toms @ 88.0
Looking at some of the bigger priced fancies, Gary Woodland, Jeff Overton, Brian Gay and Robert Allenby all made some appeal. But the vote goes to Toms, purely on course form.
In the past 11 years of this event, Toms has been in the top five six times, including back-to-back wins in 2003 and 2004 and runner-ups in 2005 and 2009. While he missed the cut in his last two visits, he is still one of the most accurate drivers around. Despite form which has seen him miss the cut at The Players and at Colonial, you can’t knock his Par 4 Birdie of Better stats, where he ranks ninth. It would be nice to see the veteran bounce back and build on his T13 at The Masters.
Top European Player
BETDAQ have markets for Top Euro, Top Australian player, as well as some interesting Group Betting and Tournament Match bets. And don’t forget to dabble in the 1st Round 3 Balls markets.
Our pick for Top European goes to Robert Karlsson at 5.5, purely on the basis of course form. He’s been runner-up twice in three trips to TPC Southwind, but he’s also been gaining momentum of late, with a T4 at Wells Fargo and he opened with a three-under 69 at the Memorial.
He looks a better bet than out-of-form Ian Poulter, who is available at 8.0. Mind you, with his off-the-wall fashion sense, he is one player who probably wouldn’t mind winning a blue and white seersucker jacket.
Match Betting
Ben Crane to beat Cameron Tringale
Crane has finished in the top 15 in two of the past three times he’s played TPC Southwind and he also had a T6 in 2003. With temperatures in Tennessee expected to be in the upper 80s all week, Crane just needs to make sure he paces himself during his rounds. And that’s one thing you can be certain of.
Russell Henley to beat Boo Weekley
Henley has no course history but the Sony Open winner has notched some great performances on courses of less than a par 72. He was T6 at RBC Heritage (par 71), T13 at the Honda Classic (par 70) and is tied with Dustin Johnson for fourth in Par 4 Birdie or Better. Weekley’s form coming off a win (he took the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial) is less than adequate. Who knows, perhaps he parties too hard? He has one top 10 and two top 25s in seven visits here, though, so a tough call.
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