Wimbledon
Monday 24th July, 2013. A date I’ve been waiting for since Andy Murray broke down in tears addressing the Centre Court crowd after a heartbreaking loss to Roger Federer in the men’s singles final last July. Wimbledon is back and I for one cannot wait. It’s been quite a year for Murray. No doubt spurred on by the defeat in his maiden Wimbledon final, the Scot now holds an Olympic gold medal (secured on the grass courts of Wimbledon) and a grand slam title in the shape of the US Open. In actual fact, Murray possibly boasts the best grass court form heading into this year’s championship and perhaps should be a little closer price-wise to pre-tournament favourite Novak Djokovic. If you consider his defeat in last year’s final, the gold-medal winning performance, and his recent victory at the traditional warm up event at Queen’s, Murray has every right to be considered second favourite behind world number one Novak Djokovic. Never eliminated before the semi final stage in each of the last four years, Murray appears to thrive on the lawns of SW19 and handles the pressure of the British public and media with aplomb. There’s no reason to expect he won’t be sticking around until the business end of proceedings and thus continuing his exemplary form in his home major.
2011 champion Djokovic currently trades around the 2.3 mark on BETDAQ at the time of writing and although he’s been handed a favourable draw, I just can’t have him at such a price. Some may argue that odds against about a previous champion and officially the best player on the planet is a bit of a gift but with dangerous players aplenty who are more than capable of giving the Serbian a match in his half of the draw alone, I’ll be steering well clear. Looking towards round four and beyond, the likes of Tommy Haas and Richard Gasquet or Tomas Berdych more than know their way around a grass court and for that reason, 2.3 looks a little on the skinny side. Should he negotiate those tricky-looking matches, there’s no reason why Djokovic shouldn’t line up in his second Wimbledon final.
The bottom half of the draw certainly looks to be a little more difficult to predict and with potential quarter finals involving Nadal, Federer, Murray, and Tsonga, it’s easy to see why. It’s understandable that Djokovic’s price has shortened since the announcement of the draw on Thursday morning, since the players in the bottom half will be doing their utmost to bring each other’s participation in this year’s event to an end but I just feel if a Nadal or a Murray could come through relatively unscathed to face off against Djokovic in the final, I fancy one of them to lift the title. For me, Djokovic isn’t at his best on a court that can throw up some unreliable bounces and grass certainly falls into that category. Nobody can take his title of 2011 away from him but I’m of the belief he’s more beatable on a grass court than say on an American hard court. I’d say he might even be more vulnerable if the roof remains open so I can see potential opponents hoping for a dry fortnight!
On closer inspection, I’d possibly favour Murray’s draw over Nadal’s. If I’ve called it right, Murray will probably face Yen Hsun Lu in round two (assuming he beats Benjamin Becker in round one), with matches against ‘s-Hertogenbosch champion and record breaker Nicolas Mahut, Mikhail Youzhny, and probably either Marin Cilic or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the last eight, both of whom he beat at Queen’s the week before last. Nadal on the other hand could face the likes of Benoit Paire and Stanislas Wawrinka before a potential quarter final showdown with Roger Federer. Should he advance to the last four, Andy Murray will likely await, not to mention a certain Novak Djokovic in the final. It won’t be easy for the Spaniard but if anyone is in the sort of form to achieve such a feat, it’s Nadal. Albeit in the most part on his beloved clay, his 2013 record stands at 43-2 which is a quite staggering effort. Wimbledon 2012 didn’t quite go to plan for the Spaniard with a five-set loss to Lukas Rosol in one of the most remarkable matches I’ve ever witnessed. Going back to his 2013 draw though, playing better players in the earlier rounds may well bring out the best in him and I don’t see lightning striking twice for Rafa. At 6.0 on BETDAQ, I think this represents terrific value and if we see the best of the Spaniard over the next 14 days, we could see a repeat of that epic French Open semi final from a few short weeks ago, that saw Nadal defeat Djokovic 9-7 in the final set. One thing is for sure. With over £300,000 already matched on the outright win market, this year’s event is shaping up to be the most exciting (and hopefully profitable) one yet.
Selection: Rafael Nadal @ 6.0
For those wanting to get involved in individual first round matches, I think there’s certainly potential for a few in-play opportunities:
Pablo Andujar vs Adrian Mannarino
The Spaniard has a woeful record at Wimbledon but is ranked 62 places higher than Mannarino and is the better player. Mannarino himself has only ever won one main draw match at Wimbledon (6-4 in the fifth against 181-ranked Irishman Conor Niland in 2011) and hasn’t won an ATP Tour level match in all of 2013. He’s had relative success on the challenger circuit but a major is a different ball game altogether. Andujar took part in the exhibition event in Liverpool without a great deal of success but practice on the grass will help. 1.32 looks a very short price about Mannarino and probably one I’ll look to take on and have a bit of a play with in-running.
Fernando Verdasco vs Xavier Malisse
Personally speaking, I absolutely love to get involved in best-of-five set matches that involve Verdasco. So many of his matches are topsy-turvy and usually see Verdasco winning (or losing) in five tumultuous sets. Malisse himself is a bit of a character so I expect their encounter might be one full of fireworks. The Belgian starts as marginal favourite at 1.86 but I can see both players trading as favourite on more than one occasion and this could be a traders dream. I’ll possibly wait for one of either player to drop a set or two and look to get involved from there.
Andreas Haider-Maurer vs Go Soeda
The only pointer I can really offer here is Soeda’s quite dreadful record on the grass. Having only won three matches on the surface at tour level, I’m not sure I could ever back such a player at 1.47. Haider-Maurer himself hasn’t torn up any trees on grass but could be one for in-play backers or perhaps an odds-against shot for your multiple. Soeda may well win but he’s a quite horrible price.
James Blake vs Thiemo De Bakker
Dutchman De Bakker might be worth a small investment at 2.28 against American Blake. He’s shown on previous occasions at Wimbledon that he can hang tough in a war of attrition and this could be a match that develops into just that. Five-set defeats to Wayne Arthurs in 2007 and Paul-Henri Mathieu in 2010 will have been tough to take but a 16-14 final set victory over Santiago Giraldo also in 2010 demonstrate that De Bakker could be the type of slogger that can play for hours and hours. He’s maybe not one to trust too much but could be a candidate for a 3-2 scoreline.
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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