Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ New York Giants (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -4 (50)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: G Justin Blalock (out– back), WR Harry Douglas (out– foot)
New York: LB Jon Beason (questionable– foot), WR Odell Beckham (questionable– hamstring), LB Devon Kennard (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games
New York is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points
The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games following a win
The UNDER is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons have an explosive offense that ranks 1st in yards per game (444 ypg) and 2nd in points scored (32.8 ppg), so it’s going to be difficult for the New York offense, which has produced more than 30 points just once in 4 attempts, to keep pace in this game.
2. Only Geno Smith has turned the ball over more than Giants quarterback Eli Manning since the beginning of last season, and Manning’s turnovers are a big reason why New York has faded into irrelevance. The Falcons are currently tied for the NFL lead in recovered fumbles, so Manning needs be careful on Sunday.
3. The Giants simply don’t have the personnel in the secondary to match up with Julio Jones and Roddy White, Atlanta’s Pro Bowl tandem of receivers. In week 1 the Giants had no answer for the Matt Stafford-led Detroit passing attack, surrendering 346 passing yards and 35 points in a loss, and the Falcons are averaging nearly 50 more pass yards per game than Detroit this season.
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Giants are on a roll, as they’ve scored 75 combined points in their last two games, both wins. Eli Manning seems to have finally grasped new coordinator Ben McAdoo’s offense, and Rashad Jennings is currently 3rd in the league in rushing. The offense is beginning to look like a championship-caliber group.
2. The Falcons have an atrocious defense that is surrendering a whopping 28.3 points per game, so the New York offense will encounter little resistance on Sunday. Atlanta is especially bad against the pass, surrendering 276 yards per game through the air. Only Jacksonville is worse.
3. Atlanta’s skill-position talent on offense doesn’t mean much when the line can’t keep Matt Ryan upright, and the line has had tremendous difficulty keeping defenders off of Ryan this season. The New York pass rush has improved of late and the team currently ranks 10th in sacks, so Ryan will be running for his life on Sunday, as he was in Atlanta’s losses to Cincinnati and Minnesota.
Prediction
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