Houston Texans (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -6.5 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Houston: WR Andre Johnson (questionable– ankle), LB Jadeveon Clowney (out– knee), CB Darryl Morris (out– ankle), S Edward Pleasant (out– ankle)
Dallas: DT Henry Melton (questionable– hamstring), LB Bruce Carter (out– thigh)
Recent Trends
Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Houston is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 14 points
The OVER is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 games following a win
The UNDER is 5-2 in Houston’s last 7 games overall
The OVER is 6-1 in Dallas’ last 7 games following a win
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans have been undervalued all season, so it’s not terribly surprising that they’re nearly a 7-point underdog here. Still, if you’ve seen the Texans play this year you know that they’re too good to be getting this many points, especially against a notoriously unreliable team like Dallas. Also worth noting is the fact that Dallas doesn’t handle prosperity particularly well, covering just twice in their last 7 games following a win of more than 14 points.
2. Houston is surrendering just 16.8 points per game this season, ranking 6th in the league. Their defense features All Pro end J.J. Watt, who just may be the NFL’s best player regardless of position. Watt will spend his day harassing Tony Romo, who hasn’t been quite as spry as usual this year after offseason back surgery.
3. The Cowboys have a leaky defense that ranks 27th in total yards allowed, so the balanced Houston offense, which ranks in the top-half of the league in both pass yards and rush yards per game, won’t have any trouble moving the ball. These two teams are very evenly-matched, which is why the Texans are such a good value as underdogs of nearly a touchdown.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys have the NFL’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, and on Sunday he’ll be going up against a Houston defense that ranks 25th against the run, so this is a great matchup for the Dallas offense. Behind Murray’s running and the arm of Tony Romo the Cowboys are averaging 28.8 points per game this season; don’t be surprised if they top that number against the Texans.
2. Houston has a pedestrian offense led by journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who would be a backup on most teams. Dallas, on the other hand, has plenty of offensive firepower, from the aforementioned Murray to All Pro wideout Dez Bryant, and they have a Pro Bowl quarterback– Tony Romo– orchestrating things. These offenses are not on the same level; the Texans are at a distinct disadvantage in this matchup.
3. The Texans have covered just once in their last 8 games following a win, while Dallas has been a moneymaker against winning teams, covering in 5 of their last 6 opportunities. And the Cowboys just demolished the New Orleans Saints, who sport the NFL’s 3rd-ranked offense and a defense that was a top-5 unit last season. This Dallas team is gaining momentum, and on Sunday they have a home game against an inferior opponent.
Prediction
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