Vegas Line Moves: Week 7
Las Vegas is the epicenter of NFL betting, so examining line moves and betting patterns at the biggest Vegas sportsbooks can be instructive. Here are a few lines that have been on the move in Week 7:
* VegasInsider “consensus” data used
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Redskins
Vegas opening line: Washington -3.5 Vegas current line: Washington -5.5
BETDAQ Line: Washington -6
When two bad teams meet the result is often difficult to predict, but bettors apparently have confidence in a 1-5 Washington team’s ability to easily handle the visiting Titans this week. How anyone can have confidence in the Redskins, whose lone win this season came over winless Jacksonville, is a bit puzzling, but a dismissive attitude towards Tennessee is certainly understandable. After all, the Titans managed just 16 points against Jacksonville’s 32nd-ranked defense last week while surrendering 336 passing yards to rookie Blake Bortles. They’re now 2-4, and their -49 point differential is a good deal worse than Washington’s mark of -34 despite the fact that the Redskins have won one fewer game. Plus, Tennessee starting quarterback Jake Locker is still recovering from a hand injury and may be forced to miss another start, which means the Titans could once again be led by Clipboard Jesus himself, Charlie Whitehurst. Still, I’m surprised that so many people are eager to throw money at a 1-5 team that’s favored by nearly a touchdown, especially since the Redskins haven’t really shown any tangible signs of improvement over the past few weeks.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas opening line: Cleveland -3 Vegas current line: Cleveland -5.5
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -5.5
The Fade the Jags trains rolls on and this week it has plenty of passengers, as bettors have pounced on Cleveland as a road favorite of less than a touchdown. It’s understandable, after all– the Browns have won 3 of 4 and are beginning to look like a playoff contender, while the Jags are 0-6 and 1-5 against the spread. And the Browns are generally good in situations like this, going 16-4-1 against the number in their last 21 road games against teams with losing records. The Jags did cover last week for the first time all season, though, and rookie quarterback Blake Bortles seems to be an upgrade over what they’ve had at the position in years past. Throw in a Cleveland defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed and you have a genuine case for the home ‘dog, which is why I think this line will drift back Jacksonville’s way prior to kickoff on Sunday. However, before you try to outsmart everybody with a bet on the winless Jags, you should know that they rank last in points scored, next-to-last in points allowed, and have covered just 7 times in their last 27 games despite being an underdog in every one of those games. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas opening line: Buffalo -3.5 Vegas current line: Buffalo -5.5
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -5.5
People have been slow to declare Minnesota a bad team this season partially because their two wins– a Week 1 road victory in St. Louis and a Week 4 home win over Atlanta– have come by 41 combined points. There’s been just enough to like to keep the sharks at bay, so to speak, but after back-to-back blowout losses in which they produced just 13 combined points, the Vikings have become a popular team to fade as they head to Buffalo for a meeting with the 3-3 Bills. The Bills were pretty disappointing themselves last week, blowing an opportunity to change the power dynamic in the AFC East for the first time in years with their 15-point home loss to longtime nemesis New England. That performance aside, though, and the Bills have been playing very well on the defensive side of the ball, while the Minnesota offense is producing just 17.3 points per game. Buffalo has their own issues on offense, but it’s easy to understand why the majority of bettors like the home team’s chances here.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas opening line: Dallas -3 Vegas current line: Dallas -6
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -6.5
Will the clock strike midnight on this Cowboys team, or are we seeing the rise of a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Bettors are leaning towards the latter option after watching Romo and the Boys march into Seattle and beat the defending champion Seahawks last week, but students of history know the former is certainly in play, as well. The Giants can rightfully be painted with the same unpredictable/unreliable brush, as the good feelings created by three straight double-digit victories in Weeks 3-5 were utterly extinguished by an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Philadelphia last week. The news of a season-ending injury to leading receiver Victor Cruz has further darkened the skies in New York, and bettors this week have jumped at the opportunity to make a buck off of what seems to be a sinking ship. However, “reliability” has never been one of Tony Romo’s primary attributes, and the Dallas defense remains vulnerable despite their recent improvement. Any more northward movement out of this line and bettors would be wise to start looking at the other side, in my opinion.
