BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: The third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs gets underway on Thursday, as the top 70 in the points standings tee it up at famed Crooked Stick in suburban Indianapolis. Well, “top 70” isn’t technically correct– the field is now 69 strong after Henrik Stenson withdrew due to a knee injury, and only 30 advance to the upcoming Tour Championship at East Lake. So it’s crunch time for the world’s best players, and bettors certainly have plenty of attractive options from which to choose. In other words, it should be a fun week.
Crooked Stick last hosted this tournament in 2012, but it is best known for being the site of the 1991 PGA Championship, where an unknown country boy who hit the ball ungodly distances burst onto the scene and became an American sporting icon overnight. John Daly may have faded from relevance long ago, but his name will be forever linked with Pete Dye’s cornfield masterpiece.
Dye designed Crooked Stick with the help of his wife, Alice, way back in 1964, and it’s generally regarded as his first championship-worthy layout. Measuring over 7,500 yards and featuring generous but heavily-bunkered fairways, it’s a bomber’s paradise in every way. Daly’s win speaks for itself, but in 2012 the results were even more eye-opening: Rory McIlroy prevailed, and six of the top seven finishers ranked in the top-15 in driving distance for the week. There’s no ambiguity here– length off the tee should be a primary factor in the decision-making process this week.
McIlroy’s win at the Deutsche Bank Championship last week surely took the sting out of an underwhelming year, and when combined with his aforementioned win in this tournament back in 2012 it should come as no surprise that he heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 6.6. That’s a pretty short price, however, especially when you consider the depth and talent of the field. My money will be elsewhere this week, though I certainly understand where McIlroy backers are coming from. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Adam Scott (17.0)- Scott went through a bit of a quiet patch earlier this year, but back-to-back 4th-place finishes in the first two playoff events indicate that he’s returned to top form. He’s long off the tee, ranking 14th on the PGA Tour in driving distance this season, and he’s one of the best long-iron players in the world, so he should devour the par-5s this week. Crooked Stick seems like a perfect fit for Scott, and the last time he saw the place– back in 2012– he breezed around in 16-under and tied for sixth. There’s no reason to think he can’t improve on that performance this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (45.0)- A pure ball-striker with plenty of length off the tee, Matsuyama fits the profile of someone who should succeed at Crooked Stick, although he’s never played the course in competition. His recent results have been encouraging– 4th at the PGA last month, 3rd at the Wyndham Championship the following week, and 15th in last week’s Deutsche Bank Championship. Matsuyama has proven repeatedly that he can contend on the biggest of stages, and his putting is the only thing that has prevented him from truly breaking through and establishing himself on the level of a Day, Spieth, or McIlroy. Maybe his experience this week will be similar to Rory’s last week, with the putts finally dropping. His price makes it well worth the risk.
Jason Kokrak (112.0)- Unlike Matsuyama and Scott, Kokrak doesn’t have much experience contending in events of this magnitude. He may be getting there, though, as he’s reeled off back-to-back top-10s in the last two playoff events and boasts a stroke average of 67.0 in his past four final rounds. Could he channel John Daly this week at Crooked Stick? He certainly has one thing in common with Long John: the ability to hit a golf ball further than 99.99% of golfers on the planet. Kokrak averages an eye-popping 307.1 yards per drive, ranking 6th on Tour, and he also ranks in the top-10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, so his tee-ball is a formidable weapon indeed. That will serve him well this week, and when you take it all into consideration– the recent form, the venue, the ability with the driver– I’m not sure there is a better value on the board.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Patrick Reed (1.91) vs. Justin Rose (1.91)
Is it just me, or does it seem like the Olympic gold medal has immensely satisfied Rose and slightly blurred his focus? I can’t say I blame him– he has all the money he could ever spend, and despite the PGA Tour’s best efforts there’s no doubt that these “playoffs” don’t carry the same weight with players as do majors. Rose has finished no better than 31st since returning from Rio, while Patrick Reed has been on an absolute tear, winning The Barclays two weeks ago, finishing 5th in last week’s Deutsche Bank Championship, and recording five top-15 finishes in his last six events. Recommendation: Reed at 1.91
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.91)
Crooked Stick has a reputation as a “bombers only” course, and Watson and Koepka both clearly fit the bill. Neither man has been playing exceptionally well of late, though, and that is especially true of Watson, who missed the cut last week and has now gone 11 consecutive starts without finding the top 10. He did finish 12th at Crooked Stick back in 2012, however, and making the Ryder Cup team is a clear goal and motivator. Koepka, meanwhile, has never played Crooked Stick and has only broken 72 twice in his last 8 competitive rounds. Recommendation: Watson at 1.91
