BMW PGA: After a happy start to the PGA Tour’s wraparound season that saw us land a winner with Joaqun Niemann at 29.0, this column takes a 1-week detour across the pond for the European Tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship.
Long held in May, this event was essentially forced into moving dates after the (US)PGA Championship was moved to May, just four weeks before the U.S. Open. But the change seems to have worked out well, as this tournament now has the stage all to itself, and the field reflects that– not only are the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, and Paul Casey in attendance, but an American contingent that includes Tony Finau, Billy Horchel, and Patrick Reed has made the trip over as well, giving the event a WGC-esque feel.
The venue is familiar to most in the field– Wentworth’s West Course has played host to this tournament since 1984, though it has been renovated and altered a few times through the years, most recently by Ernie Els in 2017. It’s not particularly long by Tour standards, measuring 7,284 yards, but putting the ball in the fairway is a must, so players will often club down off the tee. This makes Wentworth a place where shorter players can thrive– guys like Francesco Molinari, last year’s champion, and Luke Donald, who won back-to-back titles earlier this decade. That’s not to say that length will be a handicap this week– Rory McIlroy said last year that the 2017 renovations have helped the longer guys by giving them more opportunities to be aggressive, and he should certainly know what he’s talking about in regards to the course, being that he won this tournament in 2014.
McIlroy, fresh off being named the PGA Tour Player of the Year, heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 7.2, and he’s followed by the usual suspects like Rahm (12.0), Casey (17.5), and Tommy Fleetwood (21.0). And I do think this might be a week to give the top of the market a hard look– Wentworth has generally produced “name” champions. That said, there’s plenty of talent a little further down the board as well, and I’ve certainly never shied away from throwing a couple of bucks at a live longshot. Here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tommy Fleetwood (21.0)- Wentworth is traditionally regarded as a ball-striker’s layout, and there aren’t many people out there these days who strike it better than Fleetwood. He’s been playing excellent golf lately, posting top-15s in 5 of his last 6 outings, including a T8 at the Omega European Masters a couple of weeks ago. And though his record in this event isn’t spectacular– a T6 in 2015 is his best finish in a handful of starts– he has consistently professed his love for the course, saying just a couple of days ago, “I feel comfortable on the course and feel like it suits me.” I mean… what else can you ask for? It makes you think that Fleetwood’s time at Wentworth is coming, and it may just come this week.
Bernd Wiesberger (50.0)- After a bad run to start the year Wiesberger turned things around and has been playing very well over the last 3+ months, picking up two victories and a runner-up over his last 10 starts to vault all the way to second in the Race for Dubai. He was sharp his last time out, firing a Sunday 64 to finish solo 5th at the Porsche European Open two weeks ago. The one drawback here is his record at Wentworth, which isn’t particularly stellar– he’s yet to crack the top-10 in this event, though he has made the cut in 5 of 7 appearances, so it’s not like the course always beats him up, either. And, hey, if he had landed a few top-10s here, his price would likely be cut in half. As it is, I feel very good about backing an in-form Wiesberger at a price like 50.0.
Joost Luiten (76.0)- Luiten’s game is clearly rounding into form as the year winds down– he finished 29th in Scandinavia a month ago, then followed that with a T23 in the Omega European Masters, and then, after a week off, finished 10th in last week’s KLM Open while leading the field in Greens in Regulation. Being that Wentworth is the type of place that puts a premium on fairways and greens, you would think that Luiten feels pretty good about his chances this week after striping it for four days in Amsterdam. Plus, he’s had decent success in this event, finishing 27th or better in 4 of his past 5 appearances despite shaky pre-tournament form on a couple of occasions. A win this week would be a career achievement for Luiten, and I don’t think it’s out of the question. He’s certainly worth a bet at a price like 76.0.
