Rafael Nadal made a quite stunning return to hardcourt tennis this past week with victory at Indian Wells, this season’s fourth winning selection at an appetising pre-tournament price of 10/1.
Despite finding himself down a set and a break of serve to Juan Martin Del Potro in Sunday’s final, Nadal was able to out-grind Novak Djokovic’s semi final conqueror to inform the tennis world he was well and truly back. His double figure price before proceedings commenced obviously factored in the uncertainty of how his body would react to the rigours of this surface but for me, at what place his general game was posed no concern whatsoever, given his dismantling of compatriot and clay court specialist David Ferrer in Mexico two weeks earlier.
Nevertheless, it was pleasing not to hit the crossbar in Indian Wells with Nadal in California, particularly as it looked increasingly likely he’d come up just short against Del Potro. Thankfully, Rafa did indeed do the business and will relish his return to the European clay courts in the coming weeks. Indeed Nadal along with Roger Federer will bypass the second ATP 1000 event in as many weeks in Florida as they cleverly manage their bodies ahead of what is likely to be a gruelling spring.
ATP Miami
Suffice to say the event in Miami this week is a particularly strong one with just Nadal, Federer, and Stanislas Wawrinka absent from the world’s top twenty players so to say the tournament is well attended might be a slight understatement. For that reason, it may serve not to look beyond the cream of the crop for a likely winner, especially when you consider that since the turn of the century, only Nikolay Davydenko in 2008 has been the only non-major winner to secure victory here. The roll of honour in Miami is quite something, with Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Andy Roddick, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray all boasting a tournament success here.
Murray was fairly disappointing in losing to Juan Martin Del Potro last week as I felt he’d have enough ‘game’ to see off the big-serving Argentinian. On reflection, when you consider what Del Potro went on to do against Djokovic and Nadal, there’s perhaps no shame in defeat, albeit from a leading position. I expect a better showing from Murray at a tournament where he’s twice reached the final, even if his draw hasn’t been the kindest. He’ll likely need to beat a couple of young guns in Bernard Tomic, Grigor Dimitrov, and possibly Jerzy Janowicz before reaching the semis but I fancy him to oblige to the last four at least. How easy that may prove is anybody’s guess.
Djokovic on the other hand may actually enjoy a more straightforward path to his semi final and could advance with relative ease. Naturally the matches at this level take some winning and there are sufficient threats to keep Djokovic focused this week, with the likes of Alexandr Dolgopolov, Tommy Haas, and Kevin Anderson lurking within the Serbian’s quarter. I’d be fairly confident he’d have enough in the locker to advance and I’m struggling desperately to pick holes in the world number one this week. Whether there’s any even money around for Djokovic this week remains to be seen and if I’m honest, I’m dubious but I’d be inclined to back the Serbian to win his fourth Miami title. He won’t make us rich but looks a more than solid proposition, given the form he’s shown in the early part of 2013. Seventeen wins to one defeat further highlights how difficult he may be to defeat this week and with Nadal and Federer both absent, Djokovic must fancy his chances. Looking more closely at his record in Miami, Djokovic has won 24 of his 28 matches here and other than disappointing early losses in 2008 and 2010, has made the final each and every year since 2007. Imperious is a word that springs to mind. I wouldn’t bet against a Djokovic/Murray final next weekend and with the pair being the two highest ranked players in the field, it could make for a quite a spectacle.
Looking at some first round matches that may throw up a surprise or two, Gilles Simon could be vulnerable against a still hungry Lleyton Hewitt if he’s able to make round two, Janko Tipsarevic will need to step up on the form he’s shown of late, should he face Australia’s Marinko Matosevic, Fabio Fognini may struggle to see off a Frenchman in round two, should that be Michael Llodra or Benoit Paire, and Martin Klizan looks to have a tough second round match against either David Nalbandian or Jarkko Nieminen. There certainly looks to be some potential upsets on the cards and with the likelihood of any outright winnings being on the small side this week, I’ll be looking to boost the bank with some match betting over the first couple of days.
Selection – Novak Djokovic
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
