Friday can only be described as disastrous. If Roger Federer’s surprise defeat to Julien Benneteau was hard to stomach, a double blow in the form of David Nalbandian defeating Nicolas Almagro in Brazil was just as tough to take. Saturday wasn’t much better with John Isner succumbing to a fairly tame defeat to Tommy Haas in San Jose. I suppose each of Nalbandian, Benneteau, and Haas all made their respective finals and so were clearly playing some decent stuff. Nevertheless, some disappointing efforts from players in what were certainly winnable events.
Three more events to get stuck into over the next seven days in Argentina, France, and United States and despite last week’s performances, I’m fairly bullish on all three selections.
ATP Buenos Aires
Argentina hosts the first clay court event of the season that Rafael Nadal does not participate in and for that reason, top seed and defending champion David Ferrer is a confident selection. Aside from Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and to an extent Federer, Ferrer really is a cut above the field on the red stuff and should take all the beating this week. Defeating David Nalbandian and Nicolas Almagro en route to the title last year, the pair are in opposition once again this week and neither will savour a potential rematch with Ferrer. Nalbandian himself defeated Almagro last week in Sao Paolo and will be full of confidence returning home. Ferrer however comes into the event fresh following a semi final defeat to eventual champion Novak Djokovic in Australia and will without question relish the return to the his favourite surface.
Ferrer may need to defeat a number of South Americans to defend his title. An Argentinian wildcard in round one will be followed by another Argentinian in either Carlos Berlocq or Sao Paolo finalist David Nalbandian in round two. Beyond that, Brazil’s Thomas Bellucci could be Ferrer’s quarter final opponent with another in-form Argentinian and Vina Del Mar champion Horacio Zeballos a potential semi final opponent. Should Ferrer advance to next weekend’s final, compatriot Nicolas Almagro may lie in wait, over whom Ferrer has an emphatic 13-0 head-to-head record.
If Ferrer is fully tuned up and ready to rock on his beloved dirt this week, he should prove too strong and subsequently secure his second ATP Tour title of 2013.
Selection: David Ferrer
ATP Marseille
Rotterdam champion Juan Martin Del Potro tends to play some of his best tennis at this time of year and clearly thrives on the indoor European courts. If we look at 2012, Del Potro made the final of Rotterdam before coming to Marseille to win the event, admittedly riding his luck at times, dropping sets to Davydenko in round two and Tsonga in the semi finals. Having seen a fair amount of Del Potro over the last seven days, his serve looks absolutely rock solid. Up to and including Saturday’s semi final against Dimitrov, Del Potro faced nine break points and has saved every single one of them.
Looking at the draw in Marseille, neither Del Potro nor top seed Tomas Berdych have particularly kind draws but one has to favour Del Potro, particularly given the level of tennis the Argentinian has displayed in Rotterdam. First up for Del Potro will either be David Goffin or Michael Llodra. The former was handed a double bagel (6-0 6-0) defeat by Jarkko Nieminen last week and the latter was beaten by Del Potro on two occasions this time last year so I’d be hopeful that whoever Del Potro faces, he’d see them off. Beyond that, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may pose the chief threat to Del Potro reaching his second consecutive Marseille final but such is the impression he has left on me of late, he should seriously be thinking about securing a second title in France in as many years.
In terms of a likely finalist from the other half of the draw, any number of players could advance. Tomas Berdych looks the most likely candidate, although one mustn’t discount Richard Gasquet, Janko Tipsarevic, or Julien Benneteau as all have demonstrated some very good early season form. The smart money would be on a Berdych/Del Potro final and with Del Potro’s draw looking slightly more favourable, I’ll take him to extend his 4-0 record in Marseille to 8-0.
Selection: Juan Martin Del Potro
ATP Memphis
Croatia’s Marin Cilic is the top seed this week in Memphis but looks opposable to me. Nobody can argue with a title win in his native Croatia but I’m not sure he beat much. I think it’s fair to say Grega Zemlja, Blaz Kavcic, Mikhail Youzhny, and Jurgen Melzer won’t be tearing up any trees in 2013 but Cilic could only beat what was put in front of him and that he did. Coming over to the States and competing in an event he’s never competed in, laced with eight seeded players from the World’s top 25 is vastly different to a ‘home’ competition and whilst I’m not saying he can’t win, I don’t believe he will.
Looking elsewhere, second seed Milos Raonic could go one better in 2013. Finalist in both 2011 and 2012, Raonic is in terrific form at present and but for two very narrow final defeats, could be seeking a trio of Tennessee titles this coming week. I’m always wary of these ‘serve offs’ where anybody could beat anybody in two blood and thunder sets that may be over in a blink of an eye. It’s just very difficult to ignore both Raonic’s current and tournament form and for that reason, he has to be the bet this week.
Selection: Milos Raonic
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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