LOOKING FOR A NAPS DOUBLE: Last week Daqman completed a run of five consecutive winning naps. Was another sequence launched yesterday when he scored with Whisper (WON 4-9)? His follow-up today was 4.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
CHELTENHAM: BETTER-VALUE BETDAQ: Days 1 and 2: As promised, Daqman looks at Cheltenham today and tomorrow in the light of a possible change from the heavy ground to a sound surface at the festival. Along the way he finds BETDAQ value, including a double-your-money position over the bookies on the Neptune Hurdle.
CHELTENHAM TUESDAY MARCH 12: Supreme Novices Hurdle: My Tent Or Yours has won on differing surfaces from good to very soft, and his sire’s progeny generally don’t seem to be ground dependent, which also applies to Jezki.
Jezki’s best form is all on soft going but Jessica Harrington has always maintained that he is better with a sounder surface and he has won a bumper on good.
But we have seen Un Atout only on soft-heavy (‘he was very strong in that ground’, says the stable) and his dam’s best progeny all wanted to go in deep.
Oliver Sherwood thought Puffin Billy his best since Large Action before Melodic Rendezvous trounced him nine lengths at Exeter.
That was on heavy ground but all 12 get of Melodic Rendezvous’ sire, Where Or When, have won on a sound surface, Flat and Jumps.
Melodic Rendezvous is 7-1 and 8-1 with bookmakers for this Supreme but was on offer at 12.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
Arkle Trophy: Simonsig has acted on good and heavy but Overturn’s magnificent motor is best served by a sounder surface and he’s won over hurdles on good to soft or better, steering clear of the mud.
He did win a Flat race on soft but his hurdles form-figures on official soft are 42. On good and good-to-firm: 2112103112.
Champion Hurdle: All ground comes alike to Hurricane Fly and Zarkander but Rock On Ruby (form figures on soft 43) definitely needs only a bit of cut. On good to soft, he is 1111212.
Grandouet won in the French version of ‘very soft’ on the Flat but his only defeat since Cheltenham has come on heavy ground; otherwise he’s 1F11 on good and good to soft after being brought down at Aintree.
Mares’ Hurdle: Quevega can win on a road or a bog. Une Artiste also seems to act on any ground but you have to look back to her Flat form to support a bet on Unaccompanied if the going became ‘on top’.
Tarla, a faller twice over fences, might revert to hurdles in this, but her 172.0 offers suggests that Willie Mullins will give her a break and target the Punchestown Festival.
CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY March 13: Champion Chase: Sprinter Sacre has done just that – sprinted way away from all opponents – on good or on heavy, and Sizing Europe takes the ground in his stride, too.
But Finians Rainbow is a much better horse on a sound surface: delete soft and heavy ground and his CV reads 9 out of 12 and two seconds, the only blot on decent going being his Neptune fifth in 2010.
Neptune Hurdle: We haven’t seen Pont Alexandre extended on a sound surface but his family doesn’t mind either way.
The New One has scored on good and on soft but came unstuck in the heavy when At Fishers Cross charged at him up the Cheltenham hill.
Taquin Du Seul has done well on heavy but Jonjo O’Neill says: ‘A lovely horse with a lovely attitude, he doesn’t mind the bad ground but will be just as good on better.’
Rule The World is, like many Irish contenders, exposed only on soft and heavy and, as ‘a big raw bugger’ (trainer Mouse Morris’s words about him to the Racing Post), he may not handle a fast surface. His sire’s stock hasn’t minded but the dam’s produce want plenty of cut.
Melodic Rendezvous (see Supreme above) is also low with the bookies (8-1 Hills) but a double-your-money 17.0 on BETDAQ this morning. At those offers for Supreme and Neptune, we can afford to cover both races and have enough left to claim we’ve bagged some ‘overs’!
RSA Chase: Dynaste had been kept to good and good-to-soft ground since his arrival from France and there were nerves showing when connections took him to Kempton for the Feltham on Boxing Day.
But, while the stats are against Feltham winners for the RSA, Dynaste was impressive as ever, strolling nine lengths clear of a horse who had been a short-head behind Unioniste.
So it was that Unioniste, behind Dynaste in November, franked both lots of form with December and January successes.
Boston Bob is another Irishman we’ve seen only on heavy ground over fences, though he won a bumper on good to soft.
Rocky Creek was raised 2lb for winning on good to soft but improved 7lb on soft, if the handicapper has got it right and, after Saturday’s performance, I see him more as a stayer, maybe headed for the 4m NH Chase or on some slow trajectory to next year’s Grand National.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.6pts win (nap) MADAM LILIBET (2.00 Carlisle)
BET 2.2pts win and place MY BOY PADDY and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) EMPEROR’S CHOICE (3.40 Carlisle)
BET 6.6pts win MINELLA FOR STEAK (4.00 Southwell)
LAY 10pts IMJOEKING and BET 5pts win NOWURHURLIN (4.40 Carlisle)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.7pts win MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (12.0, Supreme Novice Hurdle, Cheltenham) and 1.7pts win MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (18.0, Neptune Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham)
Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, except for ‘savers’, which are intended to cover the stake on the main bet. Jackpot bets, on the day and ante-post, have 30, 40 or even 50 points as the target.
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