Davis Cup tennis over the last couple of days has meant we’ve had no tournament tennis since Novak Djokovic’s deserved win over Andy Murray in last weekend’s Australian Open final and after several late nights and early mornings down under, a brief hiatus was most welcome.
After much R&R, it’s time to get stuck back into the bread and butter of the tour as a trio of ATP 250 events await in France, Croatia, and lastly Chile where a certain Rafael Nadal makes his long-awaited return to the circuit. Having not hit a competitive ball in anger since his now infamous shock defeat at Wimbledon to Lukas Rosol, Nadal will surely be chomping at the bit to get back on the court and it is therefore no surprise he’s chosen a smaller event on his beloved red clay to get his 2013 season underway.
ATP Vina Del Mar
We’ll start in Chile where a rusty Rafael Nadal is likely to be a very short-priced favourite for the title, yet it is still very difficult to look beyond the Spaniard. Since 2005, Nadal has a 245/12 winning record on the dirt which equates to a 95% success rate when he takes to a clay court and short of match practice or not, I can’t possibly oppose him. His record on this surface is quite imperious and having never lost more than two clay court matches in a single calendar year, looks to be without question the greatest clay court player we’ve ever seen. There are some ‘useful’ players lurking in the draw with 2012 champion Juan Monaco looking the most likely to serve up the sternest examination of Nadal’s tennis. Failing that, Rafa at 70% should be good enough to see off the remainder of the competition.
The only concern is obviously how Nadal’s knees will hold up throughout a demanding week back on the clay and providing he passes this test, I can see Rafa sending out a message to the likes of Djokovic and Murray by winning on his belated return to the tour. I won’t be steaming into Nadal at what I believe will be a short enough price, nor would I recommend it. He just looks to me the likely winner in a weak enough event and I look forward to seeing how quickly he can get back into his groove in deepest, darkest South America.
Selection: Rafael Nadal
ATP Montpellier
Montpellier looks to be much more competitive than Vina Del Mar and it is top seed and defending champion Tomas Berdych the field all have to beat. Having played the event for the first time last year, Berdych has a perfect 4-0 record and could take all the beating once again this week. I’m looking to take him on however, mainly down to the sheer amount of Davis Cup tennis he played over the weekend. In two singles rubbers and one doubles (the latter of which was a record at just over 7 hours), Berdych’s court time totalled 12 hours and 51 minutes, an amount he couldn’t possibly legislate for ahead of his title defence. Is Berdych the best player in the field? Probably. Is he a 2/1 shot in light of his Davis Cup exertions? Probably not.
Nikolay Davydenko looked somewhere like his best in Doha in early January and if reproducing that level of form this week, has to be a real contender. Straight set defeats of Mikhail Youzhny and David Ferrer demonstrated that Davydenko is playing some decent tennis and but for a tough draw in Australia where Roger Federer saw him off in round two, his season could have gone even better. Should Davydenko defeat Sergiy Stakhovsky in round one and either Edouard Roger-Vasselin or Tatsuma Ito in round 2, top seed Berdych awaits. This isn’t a match-up that should faze Davydenko too much, particularly as he has a 9-2 head to head record against the Czech player and clearly thrives when the pair clash. Davydenko isn’t what I’d call a rock solid proposition this week but could outplay his odds and continue on an upward curve this season.
Selection: Nikolay Davydenko
ATP Zagreb
If one risky bet in Davydenko wasn’t enough for one week, I must be barking mad putting up Grigor Dimitrov as a selection! Not one to rely on at the best of times, Dimitrov started 2013 in much the same way Davydenko did by making a final in his first event of the year. Since then however, things haven’t exactly gone to plan with two consecutive defeats to Fognini in Sydney and Benneteau in Melbourne. A couple of weeks off and a return to Europe might just allow Dimitrov to refocus and if the Bulgarian can apply himself in a way that he’s proved he can, he could be very dangerous this week. One thing in Dimitrov’s favour this week is that his fellow seeds are similarly undependable. Top seed Marin Cilic threatens to be the player he can be but on occasion goes missing, the same of which can be said for the fragile but talented quartet of Andreas Seppi, Mikhail Youzhny, Jurgen Melzer, and Martin Klizan. Any number of players could feasibly win this ultra-competitive tournament in the Croatian capital but if we’re taking 2013 bare form on face value, Dimitrov has to be the bet this week
Selection: Grigor Dimitrov
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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