BNP Paribas Masters, Paris (Monday 29th October – Sunday 4th November 2012)
Gilles Simon and Stanislas Wawrinka ensured from a very early stage last week that my BETDAQ column wasn’t going to be a vintage one. In Valencia, Simon succumbed against Marcel Granollers despite finding himself in a winning position whilst in Basel, Wawrinka lost against a player other than Djokovic, Federer, or Murray for the first time since his last visit to his native Switzerland against Nikolay Davydenko. Clearly this time of year is difficult to identify nice priced winners given a lot of players have pretty much written off 2012 and is probably why October has been dominated in the most part by top seeded or second seeded tournament winners. Nevertheless we’ll press on and look to pick out a winner or two before the season concludes at the year-ending ATP World Tour Finals in London a week from now.
Over the next seven days, the final ATP 1000 event takes place in Paris where defending champion Roger Federer will not be present. Late on Sunday, Federer announced he’d be bypassing the Palais Omnisports in Bercy to focus all his time and energy in preparing for the O2 and to be honest, I don’t blame him. At 31, Federer now more than ever has to take care of his body and playing three weeks running (Basel, Paris, and London) would have been ill-advised. I would think the Swiss has privately admitted defeat in his quest to end the year as world number one and for Federer to have the best chance possible in London, one has to think skipping the year’s final 1000 event is a smart move. Even prior to Federer’s withdrawal, it was his section of the draw where I was looking for a selection so I feel even more confident in my pick of Tomas Berdych. With Federer off the agenda, Berdych has to feel that making the last four is a realistic goal. The likes of home favourite Richard Gasquet and Tokyo champion Kei Nishikori won’t be a walkover but I feel Berdych may have the measure of the pair on what are likely to prove fairly slow courts, particularly for an indoor event.
Elsewhere in the draw, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are justifiable favourites but I can’t help but feel their minds will be on London and should the going get tough in any of their Paris matches, I wouldn’t be wholly surprised to see one or both suffer early exits. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might be an interesting one however. Still not assured of a place at the O2, Tsonga clearly has something to play for and no doubt desperate to put on a show for his home crowd (not to mention having won the event in 2008), he’ll give it everything he has this week and should make the last eight at worse. His withdrawal last week in Valencia because of a back problem is obviously of concern but if genuinely an issue, I don’t think we’d have seen him this week as he would probably have written off his O2 chances and focused on 2013. As it is, he’s scheduled to play and now hooked up with a new coach in Roger Rasheed. Having worked with Lleyton Hewitt between 2003 and 2007, Rasheed clearly knows how to get the very best out players and I don’t think it is any coincidence that Tsonga hasn’t showed anything like his best form since he split with former coach Eric Winogradsky in April 2011. I’m not expecting miracles from Tsonga this week but if fully tuned up and not feeling the effects of his back problem, he’ll be a threat this week.
Tournament jolly Novak Djokovic could be vulnerable this week and this might just be the week to take him on. Clearly in devastating form since his US Open final defeat to Andy Murray, Djokovic is playing the sort of tennis that saw him tear up trees in 2011. He could be ‘served out’ of the tournament this week however. Despite the courts likely to play slow and Djokovic being one of the best service returners on tour, names such as Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic, John Isner, and Juan Martin Del Potro are likely to irritate Djokovic at various points this week and I wouldn’t be in a rush to take a short price about the Serbian. In terms of Andy Murray, I can only see motivation as an issue for him this week. His section of the draw is certainly more favourable than Djokovic’s so should put up a decent showing this week. It has to be noted however that Murray has never advanced past the last eight in Paris in four previous attempts so again, I wouldn’t be fancying his chances at a short enough price.
Selection #1 – Tomas Berdych
Selection #2 – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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