It was so nearly the perfect return to competitive tennis this week for Rafael Nadal with an almost effective demolition job in Chile. 4/7 shots aren’t something I make a habit of backing but with Nadal seemingly only having to answer questions on his well-being, the opposition shouldn’t have been up to scratch. Take nothing away from outsider Horacio Zaballos who defeated Nadal in three sets during Sunday’s final. Nadal traded at around the 1.02 mark on BETDAQ for the majority of the final but was unable to see of Zaballos. I think it goes without saying that this was still a more than satisfactory return to the tour for Nadal.
Particularly frustrating this past week was neither Grigor Dimitrov or Nikolay Davydenko being able to put up much of a fight in their respective events. Davydenko was dispatched by Finland’s Jarkko Nieminen whilst Dimitrov lost to Ivo Karlovic in two tight tie breaks, despite not having his serve broken or even facing a single break point. That is the nature of these best-of-three set matches and Dimitrov will need to learn how to win through against these tricky opponents if he is to truly scale the heights many feel his talent deserves.
Three separate continents are under the spotlight on the ATP tour this week as Rotterdam (Netherlands), San Jose (United States), and Sao Paolo (Brazil) each host their annual competitions. Many of the tour’s top players take to the court for the first time since their Australian Open campaigns and despite a trio of events to relish, the quality is far from diluted.
ATP Rotterdam
Top seed and defending champion Roger Federer appears to have been dealt a particularly favourable draw at the ABN AMRO event and it’d be a major surprise if he wasn’t able to capitalise. In my view, Federer’s chief threat looks to be the man he defeated in last year’s final Juan Martin Del Potro. However, his draw looks far from straightforward. Dangerous players in Gael Monfils, Jarkko Nieminen, Montpellier champion Richard Gasquet, Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic, and Nikolay Davydenko all lurk within Del Potro’s half and it looks an ultra competitive section, within which any number of players wouldn’t look out of place in a Rotterdam final. By contrast, Federer looks likely to have to see off Jerzy Janowicz and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to reach his fourth final here and it’d take a brave man to oppose him. He appears to possess the hunger and desire to continue competing at the highest level and only a fool would question his ability, even at this stage of his career. A likely price around the 11/8 mark is about right in my mind and looks a strong selection on paper.
Selection: Roger Federer
ATP San Jose
Perhaps the most competitive of this week’s tournaments is in San Jose, California where I’d genuinely give around a dozen players a realistic chance of winning. If we look at the roll of honour for the event, it would seem that if your serve is a crucial part of your game, San Jose is the place to come. Pete Sampras, Mark Philippousis, Greg Rusedski, and more recently Milos Raonic further highlight how well big servers tend to fare on the west coast of the United States. Raonic is certainly a deserved favourite because of his tournament record but I’m yet to be fully convinced by the young Canadian and 5/2 is short enough. If however you can get John Isner onside at somewhere close to 5/1, that simply has to be the bet this week. Isner ticks all the right boxes this week and whilst he hasn’t yet won an indoor title on tour, the home favourite looks sure to go close, especially as he won’t have to play five sets! Much has been made of Isner’s dreadful five-set record recently, particularly after a surprising Davis Cup defeat to Brazil’s Thomaz Bellucci just last week. I’m of the opinion that San Jose could develop into a bit of a ‘serve off’ with tie breaks in abundance and Isner could benefit from this set of circumstances. He missed the Australian Open through injury so hasn’t had a great deal of court time. His draw though looks slightly more favourable than other big servers in Raonic and fellow American Sam Querrey so it’s Isner for me to kick start his 2013 campaign.
Selection: John Isner
ATP Sao Paolo
Given his form in Vina Del Mar this past week, it comes as no surprise that Rafael Nadal’s price is considerably shorter than this time seven days ago and 1/2 effectively means the Spaniard isn’t backable for a second time in as many weeks in South America. The field in Brazil doesn’t look a great deal stronger than Chile aside from the presence of three-time champion Nicolas Almagro and I fail to see Nadal going one better this week. Providing his exertions haven’t taken their toll and he takes his place in the event, I don’t see him being beaten. Almagro could be a spot of value to reach the final though. He clearly loves the place, as anyone would if they’d won a trio of titles and if demonstrating the same level of form he showed in Australia last month when reaching the last eight of the year’s first grand slam, he could face off against Nadal next weekend. 7/1 is the outright price I expect Almagro to possibly be and if anyone can capitalise on a half-fit or fatigued Nadal, it could be Almagro. As previously mentioned, Nadal should take all the beating but Almagro is certainly a player to keep onside both this week and for the remainder of the season on his beloved clay.
Selection: Nicolas Almagro
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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