ATP Moscow, Stockholm, and Vienna (Monday 15th October – Sunday 21st October 2012)
Shanghai on Sunday saw Novak Djokovic defeat Andy Murray in a match that gave the clearest indication yet that these two icons are likely to have many more epic battles over the coming years. In winning the title, Djokovic saved FIVE match points before coming through 5-7 7-6 6-3 in three hours and twenty one minutes. By his own admission, Murray wasn’t too downbeat after his gruelling defeat. Indeed only a couple of centimetres here and there would have resulted in a different outcome but Murray should be proud of his week in Shanghai and will enter the World Tour Finals at the O2 (and possibly the Paris 1000 event) in great spirit. Column pick Jo-Wilfried Tsonga succumbed to eventual semi-finalist Tomas Berdych in the last eight stage and wasn’t overly convincing the entire week in truth. The Frenchman appeared to be struggling physically during his match with Berdych, which isn’t altogether surprising given the amount of tennis the top players have played throughout the whole of 2012.
Moving onto the next seven days and we’ll start with the first of three ATP 250 events in Moscow where the Kremlin Cup takes centre stage. Top seed Alexandr Dolgopolov has to feel like this is a week where he can really assert his authority on a pretty weak-looking event in fairness and if the tournament roll of honour is anything to go by, he must stand a pretty good chance. With the exception of France’s Paul-Henri Mathieu in 2002 and American Taylor Dent in 2003, Eastern and South Eastern Europe tends to fair rather well at the tournament. Indeed fourteen of the last sixteen champions have hailed from Russia, Serbia, or Croatia and for my money, Dolgopolov’s native Ukraine fits the bill. Encouragingly for Dolgopolov, he is starting to show the level of form that saw him lift the title in Washington back in July. Regular tennis punters will know the Ukrainian as a bit inconsistent to say the least and I would always add a cautionary caveat if parting with any money on him. In reality there is no middle ground with Dolgopolov and you really are never sure whether you’ll get ‘cabbage or caviar’ from him. I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised to see him eliminated at the hands of the qualifier or the Russian wildcard he’ll face in round two. By the same token, I wouldn’t be remotely shocked to see him sweep aside all before him and lift his second trophy of a highly respectable season. A likely price of around the 5.0 mark seems fair under the circumstances and I’ll cautiously give ‘Dolgo’ a chance this week.
Selection – Alexandr Dolgopolov
The second event of the week comes from Stockholm, Sweden and Tomas Berdych may appear to be the obvious choice here. The Czech world number seven can boast the best recent form as he is coming off the back of a semi final appearance in Shanghai, during which he defeated this week’s top seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Needless to say Berdych will be keen to maintain his good form with the Davis Cup final only a month or so away and he should take all the beating in Scandinavia this week. However Berdych’s undoing may come in the form of the first seeded player he is scheduled to meet at the event, Mikhail Youzhny, in the last eight, with whom he shares a 6-6 head to head record. Berdych may have won four of their last six meetings but Youzhny has won their only two meetings indoors and could therefore represent a spot of value. The Russian will probably need to advance past talented Frenchman Gael Monfils in round two before a likely encounter with Berdych but does hold a positive looking 3-0 record against Monfils. That said, I’ll stick my neck out and say the winner of the event will come from the Youzhny/Berdych quarter final. Tsonga deserves respect but I was concerned that he showed signs of struggling with injury during his defeat in Shanghai and may be worth taking on this week. Berdych’s likely appearances in both the Tour Finals and the Davis Cup Final may hinder rather than help the big-serving Czech player and I’ll take a chance that Mikhail Youzhny can improve on his one and only defeat during his solitary Stockholm appearance in 2000. Curiously, Youzhny could have thrown his hat into the Moscow ring and taken part in an event that wouldn’t have actually taken much winning. Instead he heads to Sweden and has a fighting chance. I’m anticipating a healthy double figure price about the Russian and if anything between say 14.0 and 18.0 becomes available to back, my recommendation would be to take it.
Selection – Mikhail Youzhny
The third and final event is located in the Austrian capital of Vienna where Juan Martin Del Potro makes a return to the tour, his first tournament appearance since the US Open. Finalist in 2011, Del Potro will be keen to go one step further this year and I think he can. Not yet guaranteed a place at the O2 next month, Del Potro looks to have an ideal opportunity to secure an invaluable 250 points. Likely threats include second seed Janko Tipsarevic and the evergreen German Tommy Haas but I fancy the Argentine to prove too strong for the pair. Haas defeated Tipsarevic in Shanghai last week and the Serbian has reportedly been struggling with a flu-like virus over the last ten days or so and for this reason, I wouldn’t be looking to back him, particularly after a timid enough display against Haas last week. Indeed it could be Haas that puts up the biggest fight this week but ultimately in vain in my opinion as I foresee Del Potro securing his third title of 2012. His price won’t be a huge one and I anticipate something around the 1.75 mark. I’d be having a saver on the Argentine however, on the off chance things don’t work out for Dolgopolov and Youzhny, both of whom have the frustrating capability of jetting home at the earliest opportunity.
Selection – Juan Martin Del Potro
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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