Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1, 6-4-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9, 4-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -3.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: LB Vontaze Burfict (questionable– knee), DE Margus Hunt (questionable– ankle), OT Andre Smith (out– tricep)
Tampa Bay: TE Brandon Myers (questionable– calf), LB Lavonte David (questionable– knee), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (questionable– back), S Major Wright (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss
Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. This is an obvious mismatch: The Bengals sit atop the AFC North and have lost just three times all season, while the Bucs are 2-9 and firmly in the “NFL’s worst teams” discussion. The fact that Cincinnati is favored by just 3.5 points here speaks to the misguided respect that bettors have had for Tampa all season, which is why they’re a dismal 4-7 against the spread.
2. The Bengals have been playing very well on offense in recent weeks, scoring 22 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games. They shouldn’t have any trouble lighting up the scoreboard against the dreadful Tampa defense, a unit that is surrendering 27.3 points per game this season.
3. The Bucs have a terrible offense that averages just 18.8 points per game and has produced 17 points or fewer in 5 of their past 6 games. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been playing exceptionally well on defense over the past couple of weeks, limiting their last two opponents to just 23 combined points. It’s difficult to imaging the Tampa offense having much success on Sunday.
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs got off to a terrible start this season but they’re playing their best football at the moment, as they’ve had a chance to win each of their past 5 games and finished the job two weeks ago, hammering the Redskins 27-7. This week they’re a generous 3.5-point home underdog against an inconsistent Cincinnati team that hasn’t covered as a favorite since Week 3.
2. The Cincinnati defense has been horrendous this season, ranking 24th in yards allowed and 27th against the run. The Bucs, on the other hand, have an underrated offense that has improved immensely since veteran quarterback Josh McCown was re-inserted into the starting lineup two weeks ago. Over his last two games McCown has produced nearly 600 combined passing yards.
3. The Tampa defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, surrendering 27 points or fewer in each of their past 5 games after allowing over 30 per game during the first 6 weeks of the season. They should be able to build on their recent success against the mediocre Cincinnati offense, a unit that is averaging just 17.5 points per game on the road this year.
Prediction
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