Tennessee Titans (2-9, 3-7-1 ATS) @ Houston Texans (5-6, 6-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Houston -7.5 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Tennessee: S Marqueston Huff (questionable– hamstring), CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson (questionable– back), S Michael Griffin (questionable– shoulder), OT Taylor Lewan (questionable– ankle), RB Dexter McCluster (questionable– concussion)
Houston: CB Kareem Jackson (questionable– knee), LB Max Bullough (questionable– hamstring), QB Ryan Mallett (out– pectoral)
Recent Trends
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
Tennessee is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall
Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Houston is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
The UNDER is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 8-2 in Houston’s last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Titans are coming off their highest-scoring two week stretch of the season, as rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger has injected some life into the offense. On Sunday Mettenberger will face a Houston defense that has allowed more passing yards than all but one team leaguewide, so the Tennessee offense should be able to build on their recent success.
2. Houston lost starting quarterback Ryan Mallett to a pectoral injury last week, meaning they’ll have to turn back to journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was awful before he was mercifully benched a couple of weeks ago. Prior to the benching the Texans had scored 17 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games with Fitzpatrick at the helm, and this week Fitz makes his return against a talented Tennessee secondary that ranks 11th in pass defense.
1. The Titans have struggled this season but they’re still playing hard for 1st-year coach Ken Whisenhunt, and this week they’re a generous 7.5-point ‘dog against one of the league’s worst home teams, the Houston Texans. The Texans have lost three straight home games and have covered just 3 times in their last 13 opportunities.
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans are better than the Titans on both sides of the ball and they demonstrated their superiority back in Week 8, when they traveled to Nashville and cruised to a 14-point win. Since then Tennessee has dropped three straight games, so there’s little reason to have faith in them this week.
2. Houston is a run-first team that ranks 3rd in the NFL in rush yards per game, and on Sunday they have a dream matchup: a Tennessee defense that ranks last against the run, surrendering over 145 yards per game on the ground. Expect the Texans to dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup.
3. Tennessee is now starting rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, a 6th-round pick who has never won a game. Mettenberger is likely to struggle against a Houston defense that ranks 11th in points allowed and is led by the NFL’s best defensive player, J.J. Watt.
Prediction
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