ANOTHER CHOICE NAP FOR WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN: Now it’s four days in a row unbeaten for Daqman’s winning formula, with a second nap of the week enough to earn a profitable Thursday. Here are the week’s daily hits:
WON 6-5 NEENEE’S CHOICE (Thursday nap)
WON 5-4 TEMPER TRAP (Wednesday)
WON 1-1 HEY TEACHER (Tuesday nap)
WON 11-2 HARRANDA (Monday)
TODAY: Daqman finds BETDAQ value for a nap as he analyses two handicaps at Ascot and reckons he has spotted a stayer of the future at Kempton tonight.
TOMORROW: Daqman’s verdict on the Haydock Sprint, previewed in his ABC style yesterday, and more value tips in his challenge to Pricewise (current score Daqman 51 Pricewise 30)
MY, MY! STOUTE PLOT REVEALED
⚠️ HEADS UP Piece Of History (2.30 Ascot), back from a break, is the overnight gamble of the day, in from 18-1 to 7-1 with one firm of bookmakers but with still some value left on BETDAQ (9.4 as I write).
⭕ 3.05 Ascot Last year, Sir Michael Stoute had Laafy spot on to win this 1m 4f handicap, a four-year-old carrying 10st, who had run down the field off 101 in the Summer Handicap over two furlongs further at Goodwood.
Today Stoute’s My Frankel, a four-year-old carrying 10st, who ran down the field carrying 100 in the same Summer Handicap at Goodwood, also drops back in trip for this.
The difference is that My Frankel took in a York handicap in between and has dropped 3lb to 97.
This indicates that today’s is a weaker race than Laafy’s was, and York leaves the Frankel colt closer to his last winning mark of 94.
Bugle Major has not won on turf since he started life with Pascal Bary aged three. Now six, and gelded before joining Richard Hughes, he’s been backed twice after a break but failed to reach the frame over 1m 2f, and there’s nothing to suggest that this step up in trip will help.
Recovery Run was placed in a Group 3 (1m 2f) last autumn, and has been tried in the pattern twice since, both times stepped up to 1m 6f. His best form was at today’s trip on the soft when staying on from the rear, third in a Glorious Goodwood handicap.
He came to win a race like today’s at Ascot when 25-1 but weakened towards the finish and David Probert will have a hard task kidding him home.
Protected Guest hasn’t won on turf for two years and his AW success in March was two grades lower than today.
As a three-year-old Love Is Golden has won two, both at Chester, and his three career strikes have all been on soft ground at a lower level.
If he’s a typical Mark Johnston, he will probably try to win from the front but, when he did that at Chester in May, he beat a 71 rated by a neck, and both Recovery Run and My Frankel (off 98 and 97) look different class.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3.5 My Frankel
UNCLE BRYN COULD BOUNCE BACK
⭕ 3.40 Ascot Another top weight in a handicap on a sound surface here today is Fantastic Fox, after a 6lb rise for winning a class 3 at Haydock on soft.
He’d been beaten here at Ascot at today’s level off 94, returning to the track as favourite to try (unsuccessfully) to prove he was better than he’d been at the royal meeting over further (a bit of a handful, ran too freely, faded).
Uncle Bryn was favourite for a Derby trial (the Blue Riband) at Epsom in the Spring but was coltish. They’ve gelded him since and, clearly thought to have some ability, he could bounce back.
Walhaan has changed hands twice and is 0-10 since coming over from France as a soft-ground winner nearly three years ago now.
Gifted Ruler hasn’t won since his maiden – always a bad sign – and the handicapper says he hasn’t improved a pound in four races since being gelded during the winter.
Ebury won here two years ago and could be fancied on his second at York in July for his new yard but has mostly been disappointing at big prices.
Ropey Guest has been to Ascot nine times, placed once and fourth in the 2020 Jersey Stakes, which is probably why they backed him for the Wokingham in June (12th of 21 at 7-1); 33-1 either side of that. Watch the market!
Amanda Perrett has had a winner or two recently but the eight-year-old You’re Hired has raced off 92 for most of his nine starts in the last 14 months and won a small race at Bath. The result is he’s been dropped a pound.
BETDAQ value 4.5 Uncle Bryn
BYRON CLIMBS CESAREWITCH HILL
⭕ 8.45 Kempton William Buick has ridden six winners in a row in September, two out of two at Lingfield on Wednesday and four at Haydock yesterday.
That followed an Epsom hat-trick on the last day of August, giving him a grand total of 9-12 in the three days.
He misses out on Ascot and Haydock this afternoon for seven booked rides at Kempton tonight, and by now may already have scored on one or more of Maplewood (5.45), Camerata (6.15), Al Jaddaf, (6.35), Brazilian Beach (7.15) and Saaty (7.45), two of them for Charlie Appleby, who himself has landed four in a row in the last three days and is on 9-19 (47%) in the last fortnight.
Friday could be Saatty day, with Buick determined to avenge defeat at Epsom just four days ago, but I’ll keep my Buick pound in my pocket another half hour.
I’m told that Byron Hill is trying to catch the handicapper’s eye with a view to a racing weight in the Cesarewitch.
Byron Hill is out of a daughter of top-sprinter Dandy Man but, as a son of St Leger winner, Kingston Hill, has shown dad’s grit and stamina, after being gelded and stepped up to staying trips.
He beat the Brown Jack winner, Speedo Boy, in the Colwick Cup at Nottingham, with another unexposed in third, Monsieur Lambrays, who runs at Newcastle on Monday and is also Mission Cesarewitch.
In today’s test for Byron Hill, Gentleman At Arms has been beaten all three attempts at 2m, and Geremia has his first crack at the trip.
BETDAQ value 3.8 Byron Hill
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win PIECE OF HISTORY
3.05 Ascot (win 20, nap)
BET 8pts win MY FRANKEL
3.40 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win UNCLE BRYN
8.45 Kempton (win 20)
BET 7pts win BYRON HILL
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
