ARC MARKET CAN’T SPLIT TOP TWO DESPITE THE DRAW: The draw for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe appears to favour Hurricane Lane and Tarnawa, and is not particularly good news for Snowfall and Adayar from wide berths but the market finds Adayar and Tarnawa hard to split. Daqman today presents his final close-up on the five aces for the race: Tarnawa.
DAQMAN AIMS FOR BULL TO WIN 50 POINTS AT ASCOT: Daqman has a 14.0 bull’s-eye bet at Ascot this afternoon and a right royal nap in the feature race. Don’t miss tomorrow’s preview of Ascot, Newmarket and Day 1 at Longchamp. Headlines:
TARNAWA NEEDS SOUMILLON SKILL
PYLE TAKES THE DRIVING SEAT
CHALK SUCCESS IS ON STREAM
GET ON SHIRTY AT BETDAQ 14.0
TARNAWA NEEDS SOUMILLON SKILL
🇫🇷 ARC UPDATE Adayar is drawn on the outside in Sunday’s Arc and Tarnawa is the new favourite out of stall 3, though the race becomes tactical for her, as a hold-up horse. Over to you, Christophe Soumillon!
Fifteen of the last 19 winners came from stall 6 or lower, with Sunday’s low-draw line-up: 1 Mojo Star, 2 Hurricane Lane*, 3 Tarnawa*, 4 Love, 5 Deep Bond, 6 Bubble Gift, 7 Broome, 8 Alenquer.
Drawn wide are 9 Snowfall*, 10 Sealiway, 11 Adayar*, 12 Torquator Tasso, 13 Baby Rider, 14 Chrono Genesis*, 15 Raabibah. Those with an asterisk * are Daqman’s five aces, featured daily this week, the last of them profiled below:
TARNAWA 5yo ch m. Rating: 122. Nine wins from 16 starts (322/1310110/1111/12) for earnings of £2,393,058 (H H Aga Khan – Dermot Weld – Christophe Soumillon)
Breeding: By Shamardal out of a Cape Cross mare (first foal) who was a Listed winner related to Listed winners. Shamardal beat Arc hero Hurricane Run in the French Derby (1m 2f). Cape Cross was sire of the 2015 Arc winner, Golden Horn, and the 2009 winner, Sea The Stars.
Big-race form: Tarnawa came into her third season off a rating of only 108 but won five in a row as she improved with age, including the 2020 Vermeille, the Opera on Longchamp heavy, and the Breeders Cup Turf on firm.
Just two races this term, giving 3lb and carried right when just outbattled by St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes three weeks back, the pair fending off 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare in third.
Stats: Fillies and mares have won the Arc eight times in 13 years with Zarkava (2008), Danedream (2011), Solemia (2012), Treve (2013, 2014), Found (2016) and Enable (2017, 2018).
Style: Sometimes outdone for speed over shorter but two years’ form over 1m 4f reads 11111. Straightforward mare with great cruise control. Hold-up horse but drawn 3 on Sunday, alongside Hurricane Lane (in 2).
Going: Has won on firm, good, good to yielding, yielding to soft, and heavy.
Trainerform: Dermot Weld’s fortunes seemed to have dipped but Tarnawa has been pivotal in his return to the top five Irish trainers.
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon has already won the Arc on a filly, Zarkava (2008), as well as on the colt Dalakhani (2003).
PYLE TAKES THE DRIVING SEAT
⭕ 2.30 Ascot I tipped you 10 winners you’ve forgotten you had! I advised following the Wood Ditton form way back in April.
It regularly produces a string of successes and the winner (two wins since), second (three), third (three) and fourth (two) have scored a total of 10 times in the last 22 weeks.
Andrew Balding is running at 2-43 and Kingsofthemidlands is the only one from the first five home in the Wood Ditton to let the race down.
Country Pyle was favourite for a maiden at Goodwood in July and was beaten little more than a length by Bartzella at levels.
Country Pyle is better off at the weights now and suited to today’s trip, as was her half-brother Pyledriver.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3.65 Country Pyle
CHALK SUCCESS IS ON STREAM
⭕ 3.05 Ascot (Noel Murless Stakes) Named after the Newmarket trainer of 19 Classic races in England, who started out in Yorkshire, and took the same pleasure in winning there as does William Haggas, who was born in the county.
Haggas sent Chalk Stream to York and Ripon for two of his handicap hat-trick at 1m 4f during the summer, culminating in a strike here early this month.
Chalk Stream’s reward has been 23lb in penalties, hiking his rating to 105, hence switching to this Listed level today.
The royal runner has raced as though today’s step up in trip will suit, which is supported in his breeding.
Scope was beaten only about two lengths by Belmont Jockey Club Derby winner Yibir at York, slightly closer than Mandoob’s second to the same horse on the July Course.
Scope has already tried the step up to 1m 6f but that was in the St Leger three weeks ago; outclassed but not disgraced.
First Light is also a possible at the trip but currently 10lb behind the top three in the ratings here. Classic Lord won the Young Stayers race at Sandown but has even more improvement to make.
BETDAQ value 3.45 Chalk Stream
GET ON SHIRTY AT BETDAQ 14.0
⭕ 4.15 Ascot (25 Years Since Frankie’s Magnificent Seven Handicap) And here he is back at Ascot with two chances today: First Light (3.05) and Sunray Major (4.50), a half-brother to Kingman and his best chance all day.
Dettori won yesterday’s Bellewstown race in memory of Barney Curley but has nothing in this reminder of his glory day at Ascot on Saturday, September 28 in 1996.
The two-miler is invariably won by young horses, aged three and four, and the only time Ryan Moore rode Royaume Uni for his dad, Gary, he landed the odds at Lingfield.
But I fancy a win-and-place bet on Get Shirty, tried in Group contests in France last season; has been gradually getting back to form under new trainer, David O’Meara, and sent down from Yorkshire today with his first real chance.
BETDAQ value 14.0 Get Shirty (4.15) and 2.58 Sunray Major (4.50)
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3.75pts win COUNTRY PYLE
3.05 Ascot (win 15, nap)
BET 6pts win CHALK STREAM
4.15 Ascot (win 50 bull’s-eye bet, place win 12)
BET 3.75pts win and 3.25pts place GET SHIRTY
4.50 Ascot (win 10)
BET 6pts win SUNRAY MAJOR
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
