DAQMAN EXPECTS A TENNESSEE WALTZ IN THE ORMONDE: Daring Daqman puts it on the line today, siding with Aidan O’Brien’s stable in a double double-whammy at Chester, banking on Memphis Tennessee and laying the morning favourites in both the Dee Stakes and the Ormonde.
GOLD VALUE AGAIN AND AGAIN ON BETDAQ: Daqman bombed yesterday on Day 2 of Chester after Address Unknown (WON 12-1 from 18.5) had paid for the opening day in the Chester Cup. He’d piled up the profits before this meeting, and so today spends the bank he built up then, spurred on by Gold Value offers on BETDAQ (one list was only 101% this morning).
What is the antidote to a choker at Chester? I started well with the 12-1 Chester Cup winner at 18.5 on BETDAQ. Then the dizzy spells began.. round and round the Roodeye, going off at a tangent with my bets.
It’s a crazy helter-skelter (to think they might have hurdles there!) and I’ve seen my fancies drift in the betting and drift off the rails, race after race.
It seems there are three golden rules: follow the afternoon market (winners at 10-3 twice, 9-4, 13-8 and 10-11 yesterday); follow the locals (Tom Dascombe and Marwan Koukash); and follow the jockeys with brains.
Having said that, only two races so far have gone to a double-figure stall. The results by draw in the two days have been 8, 7, 2, 3, 7, 3, 6, 11, 3, 4, 1, 3, 2, 11. One of the 11-stall winners, Sir John Hawkwood, has Royal Ascot written all over him.
But it’s no good my making predictions for June when my May treasure is being squandered. How to put it back on course, literally? Checking out the final day, to see if there are any nuggets left, I see a Dascombe in the very first race.
1.45 Chester The softened surface favours Gandalak, Chosen Character and Captain Bertie, who are all well drawn. ‘Bertie’ won his maiden at Chester as a two-year-old but has been seen only in big-field handicaps on straight courses since those days.
Dascombe’s Chosen Character scored here in September from stall 10 when he got to the front early on. His local trainer has done well here this week but the Choisir gelding would be winning off his highest mark.
Gandalak has made all the last twice and Daniel Tudhope should have no problem getting to the rail from stall 5 but, in a 107% list of offers in the orange this morning, I shall dutch Captain Bertie (7.6) and Chosen Character (9.2) as gold value to beat him.
2.15 Chester (Dee Stakes) Last produced a Derby horse 10 years ago when, in a sub-standard year, Kris Kin took it at 20-1 before winning the Epsom Classic (but nothing else after).
In fact, the three recent Dee Stakes winners have all failed to win again in 17 attempts, and it badly needs a boost if it is to live up to its Group-3 Derby trial billing.
That Contributer was clear of the Ballydoyle runner, Magician, in the BETDAQ market this morning, speaks strongly, but Contributer’s Newbury time was slow and Ryan Moore has deserted him for Magician.
The handicapper considers Holy Warrior and Willie The Whipper are better horses (both 101 to his 99), both having already won in the pattern.
Magician and Willie The Whipper are the Derby entries and, with Magician plus two higher ratings on my side, I shall take on Contributer at 2-1 the lay (maximum) to my old 10 points, with a bet on Magician at 3.9 this morning on the basis that he’s sure to be backed when the Ballydoyle lemmings make their leap of faith.
2.45 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) Harbinger and St Nicholas Abbey (2010 and 2011) made this Group 3 look good but last year’s winner, Memphis Tennessee, who goes for back-to-back wins today, was stone last in the Hardwicke Stakes after taking this last year and hasn’t been seen since.
With just seven runs to his name, the five-year-old is clearly hard to keep right, but goes well fresh and will have been got up for this.
The Ballydoyle stable is going for a hat-trick in the race and today’s rider, Ryan Moore, was on both those star winners, Harbinger and St Nicholas Abbey.
Four-year-olds are five out of six and their absence from this may be an indicator that the Classic year could get all its own way over middle distances this season.
Despite connections claiming that he might need the run, Danadana swooped like a very fit horse to score under Kieren Fallon yesterday and the same yard now saddles Mount Athos in the Koukash colours, though rain may have scuppered his chances.
A 101% total in the BETDAQ orange means you know you’re getting an incredible deal and, since they were taking the top off the ground yesterday, I rate Memphis Tennessee, in the frame in two Derbys, a banker here.
On the two occasions that Mount Athos has run on the soft, he has trailed in 11 of 15 and 12 of 16. He was beat en in the 2011 Chester Cup and is Group-3 level at best, whereas at his best Memphis Tennessee was able to reach the frame in two Derbys.
I believe Memphis Tennessee will start odds on, and I shall take the 2.14 to maximum stakes this morning.
3.15 Chester Three-year-old handicaps are tricky enough but those who reach for Chester form to help them will have that sinking feeling.
There are 12 course winners running today but only three contenders in this particular race have even seen Chester before and all three were beaten.
The draw dictates Storm Moon but Mark Johnston’s runners missed strike badly yesterday, returning form figures of 032230. And Richard Fahey says he’s worried about the softened ground for Bispham Green.
It still leaves a mad cavalry-charge among three front-runners: All Ablaze, Normal Equilibrium and Dutch Masterpiece.
I have no definite opinions but, at the magnificent offers this morning – 13.5 in a 105% orange on BETDAQ – it’s worth taking a chance that Rory Cleary can get across on All Ablaze. This sprinter is a machine and, if he doesn’t make it today, money is only lent.
3.50 Chester It’s a bit of an All Or Nothin day for me and this dual Chester winner, one of them on the soft, is a value offer at 10.0 as I write. Personal Touch is the obvious saver but has to put back-to-back wins together. That’s been beyond him so far.
5.10 Nottingham Clive Brittain’s Pastoral Witness was only ninth, unfancied at 40-1, on the debut at Newbury in April but the daughter of July Cup winner Pastoral Pursuits is well thought of and warranted a bit each way this morning to get in the first two at 11.0.
6.00 Ascot Four-year-olds are five out of six in this and Kieren Fallon was keen to keep the ride on Clive’s Quixote, who may have been tilting at windmills in Listed and class-2 events.
But Fallon reports that Quixote gave him a good feel on the last day at Kempton, only about two lengths down in the Queens Prize, and 16.5 this morning on BETDAQ is too big.
Kuda Huraa was second in the Great Met at Epsom but is up in the weights for that, now racing off a rating 8lb higher than he’s ever won off.
The question mark is whether this dual firm-ground winner can act on an easier surface, assuming the rain has got into the ground at Ascot.
Her Majesty’s Sign Manual is also lofted 8lb but he beat horses that won immediately before and after that race, and he will love any rain.
Gabrial’s Star hasn’t won since his maiden, which I never like to see, and Silver Samba has to climb two grades.
8.15 Ascot Ajmany has everything on him to help today – Kieren Fallon and blinkers for the first time – and his missing parts could help him even more (he’s been gelded).
With Luca Cumani turning them out to win first time, the 9.6 on BETDAQ seems too big an offer. I’ve been blinkered at Chester this week, and I could lose the same as Ajmany if today’s make-a-fortune or break-the-bank day is a disaster.
DAQMAN’S BETS
GOLD VALUE: BET 4.5pts win CAPTAIN BERTIE and 3.6pts win CHOSEN CHARACTER (1.45 Chester)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts CONTRIBUTER and BET (GOLD VALUE) 10pts win MAGICIAN (2.15 Chester)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts MOUNT ATHOS and BANKER 20pts win (nap at GOLD VALUE) MEMPHIS TENNESSEE (2.45 Chester)
GOLD VALUE: BET 2.4pts win and place ALL ABLAZE (3.15 Chester)
BET 3.3pts win ALL OR NOTHIN and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) PERSONAL TOUCH (3.50 Chester)
BET 2pts win and place PASTORAL WITNESS (5.20 Nottingham)
BET 2pt s win and place QUIXOTE, plus 1.25pts win (stakes saver) SIGN MANUAL (6.00 Ascot)
BET 3.75pts win AJMANY (8.15 Ascot)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An above-average day, so Daqman’s stakes are raised to win 30 points on each bet, but it’s been a stinker of a week for him. On the other hand, BETDAQ offers have been magnificent with many races below 110% overround. Daqman knows there’s Gold Value (see Daqman Library) in opposing the favourites in those races, and hopes to come good this afternoon.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
