YES, THERE IS JUSTICE! 11-2 NAP: It was 007 Daqman at Chester yesterday, licensed to slay the layers, with 9-1 winner Ian Fleming, named after the creator of James Bond. But then they faced the added spectre of an 11-2 pay-out on his nap, Justice Angel!
ONE-TWO BETDAQ RACE BID: Daqman also named the one-two in the Chester Vase trial for the Derby, and expects to do the same today in the BETDAQ Dee Stakes. His day’s tally yesterday looked like this:
WON 9-1 Ian Fleming
WON 11-2 (nap) Justice Angel
WON 4-11 US Army Ranger
2nd 11-2 Port Douglas (win and place, 8.8 on BETDAQ)
3rd 10-1 Dance Of Fire (win and place)
GROUNDS FOR A DERBY BET ON RANGER
DELETE? Galileo Gold Do you remember this in Tuesday’s Fortune Cookies’ column? I said that Galileo Gold might be worth our horses-to-follow list for further Group success ONLY if there is a weak turnout for the Irish Guineas.
Today he has been virtually ruled out of racing beyond a mile, so I hope I saved you a pound from your Derby wallet. All that hullabaloo about Epsom for this colt was what I thought it was: so much Press hot-air and bookie hyping.
ADD: US Army Ranger Conversely, US Army Ranger has now been eased to a price worth taking for Epsom. Yes, as I forecast, Port Douglas made him work yesterday, then helped him a little near the line.
It would have really disappointed the Ranger and dented his confidence had he been beaten in those last few strides. As it is, he will come on the proverbial stone for the clever ride by Ryan Moore that nearly wasn’t so clever after all.
Look at it this way, the Epsom market was so daft that they had Galileo Rock in there at 8-1 (some bookies still do), and the Minding thing is an annual now. Every year they say of the best filly: will she go for the Derby? It’s one of the bookies’ regular cash cows.
That leaves Midterm, a colt of exceptional promise but whose worth will not be revealed until next week’s Dante, though the form-book says he already has too much to do and is more an Irish Derby hope.
You see, High Grounds as a yardstick suggests that Midterm requires a similar ‘stone’ of improvement even to get alongside US Army Ranger!
High Grounds ran fifth, 19 lengths off the Ranger in the Chester Vase but was third, nine-and-a-half lengths behind Midterm at Sandown (and you’d think he would have improved yesterday for the Sandown run).
You never know how precise a measure is collateral form. Sometimes it’s surprisingly exact; sometimes way off the beam, particularly with these immature horses aged only three, and different ground and circumstances.
But which do you want this morning? The 4.5 Midterm that I saw in the BETDAQ orange or, at the same time I checked, 6.0 US Army Ranger? (see my bets list below).
Midterm is a lazy horse who doesn’t do a tap at home. He now needs in the Dante the kind of education US Army Ranger had yesterday, when he showed the essentials for Epsom: a high cruising speed allied with the ability to switch off; oh and turn corners!
BETDAQ DEE-LIGHT FOR BALLYDOYLE
2.40 Chester (BETDAQ Dee Stakes ABC Guide) After yesterday’s controversial domination of the Chester Vase, another one-two is on the cards for Aiden O’Brien, with only his pair, Housesofparliament and Cook Island, ticking the top boxes.
But that’s not least because they are Ballydoyle trained: the stable which has won 250 Group-1 races, has taken this one five times, as a Group 3 and then as a Listed. Here’s the tick-list of 10 past winners:
A Trained Aidan O’Brien (form in the race 113301114)
B Had raced between 3 and 5 times (8 out of 10)
C Sire’s stamina index 10.4 to 11.2 (8 out of 10)
D Trainer in form
E Drawn in stalls 3 to 6 (7 from 8)
ABCD Housesofparliament
Galileo colt out of a Grade-1-winning US mare, not launched until October, broke his maiden by five lengths on the Dundalk Polytrack.
Holds the English and Irish Derby engagements, and the Royal Ascot alternative, the King Edward V11 Stakes.
ABD Cook Islands
The same engagements are held and though, on breeding, this one is a 10-furlong horse, he won over a mile as a two-year-old, his dam is half-sister to an Arc runner-up, and his sire, Fastnet Rock, continues to do well (Somehow)!
Disappointing start this year, only fourth in the Ballysax but probably not liking the heavy ground.
BDE Kingston
Kurrajong A son of Derby winner Authorized, whose progeny like a bit of cut in the ground.
A winner already at Chester (7f) and runner-up at Epsom, but was then beaten in a handicap, back on the Roodeye.
BDE Linguistic
The progeny of the sire, Lope De Vega, have only an 8.0 average stallion-stamina index but the dam won at 1m 4f.
Runner-up in a maiden to subsequent Feilden Stakes second, and launched the new campaign by pocketing £108,000 of Tattersalls Millions at the Craven Meeting. Misses next week’s Dante for this.
BDE Platitude
Sir Michael Stoute has fewer runners in this than Aidan O’Brien, but emerges with figures of 1340142 since 2003.
Platitude’s dam is closely related to Oaks winner Reams Of Verse but we won’t see ‘him’ (he’s gelded) on the Classic scene.
Form tailed off last season but the trainer has a formidable record with horses like this kept in training, improving yet another one yesterday when Cannock Chase won the Group 3. Give this one time.
B Ban Shoof
Son of Shirocco who gets stamina horses and the dam won over 1m 4f.
The half-brother to Educate broke his maiden at Wolverhampton on April 1 but was easy to back and down the field in a Doncaster handicap on the last day.
DE Viren’s Army
Third in a Group 3 in Italy after winning a Nottingham handicap, and third in a seemingly modest Epsom Derby Trial on his reappearance.
Seems to enjoy testing ground, and related to Group winners up to 1m 1f.
VERDICT: No big reputations in this one, and the market suggests that Linguistic might beat them, but his running here is backpedalling from a confrontation with Midterm next week and he’s going to have to defy the twin tactics of Ballydoyle.
With the two O’Brien runners at 3.15 and 5.5 as I write, I can bet the bigger offer and save on the other.
STATS-CHOICE ARCHIE IS A 7.2 SNIP
2.10 Chester It’s virtually impossible for older horses who have lost their speed to win this 7f-plus helter-skelter: 21 over the age of five have tried in the last five years, with just the occasional place to show for it.
It’s five-year-olds 6, four-year-olds 4 in the decade, with stalls 1, 2, 3 and 5 winning in four of the last five seasons.
It all goes to confirm my view that the morning BETDAQ 7.2 offer Archie – prepped at Kempton a month or so back – can go close for in-form Clive Cox, who did me a big favour with Profitable (20-1) in the Palace House Stakes.
3.10 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) For fans of Aidan O’Brien (three times a winner of this) who think he’s Father Christmas, Willie Mullins’ followers are a match any day. They won’t have spent their Cheltenham winnings until.. well, Cheltenham 2017.
Between these two Irish maestros, there’s not a lot left for the home money-boxes, though Dartmouth must have a chance of repelling them.
Dartmouth is yet another improver for Sir Michael Stoute – he’s won the Ormonde five times – from a handicap win in August through to a Group 3 on the last day, showing an OR rise of 25lb.
As Wicklow Brave is a hold-up staying type, whose Flat success has come only on heavy ground, William Buick is called upon for the ride of his life to get him freewheeling round the Roodeye bends.
Like Oriental Fox, Wicklow surely needs further, and the Irish best is probably Father Christmas, placed in the Royal Ascot ‘Derby’, King Edward V11 Stakes, despite having broken his maiden only 11 days earlier.
He was a big price this morning – BETDAQ offers of 8.2 – because we haven’t seen him since Ascot. Dartmouth (2.74) the saver, with Ryan Moore 3-3 on him.
WIN-WIN IF BAYDAR’S UP FOR THE CUP
8.10 Ascot Hugo Palmer, who is on a hat-trick today, has just one runner, a Rock of Gibraltar colt which he thinks will win the Royal Hunt Cup.
That’s why Baydar is running at Ascot tonight. That’s why Frankie Dettori is booked. That’s why I am napping Baydar at 6.6 on BETDAQ, as I write.
I can only invoke the old adage ‘the bigger the field, the bigger the certainty.’ (Come again?).
Baydar needs to climb the ratings from a lowly 82 in this class-4 contest, and then win again, to get a Hunt Cup mark. If he cannot easily dispose of these, he won’t be seen at Ascot again! Is that a better reason?
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 3.2pts win ARCHIE (2.10 Chester)
BET 4.4pts win HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) COOK ISLANDS (2.40 Chester)
BET 2.7pts win FATHER CHRISTMAS and 1.6pts (stakes saver) DARTMOUTH (3.10 Chester)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) BAYDAR (8.10 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BET (ANTE-POST to win 50 points): 10pts win US ARMY RANGER (Epsom Derby, June 4)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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