WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP YOUR DAQ UP: Watch Betdaq offers right to the ‘off’ time to follow Daqman’s tips at Newcastle. Tonight, get the early prices for the November Handicap with Daqman’s hints of today and yesterday. Tomorrow, check out the best morning prices with lists in the orange as low as 102%. In fact, keep your Daq up all day, as the Breeders’ Cup starts tonight!
BREEDERS’ CUP TWO-DAY GUIDE: Tonight Daqman launches his Breeders’ Cup challenge against Pricewise, with their scores before the last two days of the Flat season: Daqman 82, Pricewise 39.
A JOLLY GOOD DAY AT NEWCASTLE
System doing well; send more money. The old joke about the punter doing the rounds of the racecourses, fatally relying on a single system or one set of stats, is not always on the mark. But mostly so.
Algorithmic trading is good if you have wallet management and a whole set of stats and facts – and the BETDAQ tools – to feed in and work a profit, careful never to fall foul of the more modern (computer) adage: rubbish in, rubbish out.
But a simple, easy to use tick-the-winner-in-your-daily-paper system? I know very few from the good old bad old days and most have been overtaken by events.
The first still holds good (back two-year-olds that have raced when an unraced two-year-old is favourite) – but needs refinement to be worthwhile.
The best ever from the past was finally bulldozed out of existence; literally. That was the draw bias at Beverley in the Seventies and Eighties of the last century before they stopped it.
You just backed the two or three highest stalls and won eight maybe nine times out of 10. I didn’t emigrate with the proceeds but I know a man who did.
Now Bruce Millington has raised a hare in the Racing Post and gazumped the usual systemites in the paper – Pyman and Co – in the process.
He points out that around 37% of favourites are winning on the new Tapeta of the straight course at Newcastle, so fair is the new AW track.
First refinement to improve the profits is to cut out the shorter distances (when horses can spoilt their chance by being slow away): aim at a mile or so and you get 45% hits and the biggest level-stakes profit of any distance. Jolly backers can’t really lose!
There are snags of course: for example, the ’favourite’ is the shortest priced horse in the race at the off! Not in the paper forecast; not in the run-up to the race; not five minutes beforehand. But at the ‘off.’
In fact, I wonder if one refinement would be to apply one of my own ‘systems’ (I prefer to call them add-ons, because they enrich my betting opinion sometimes but are not systems to follow blind. There is no winning ‘system’ that lasts for very long).
I’m talking about backing ‘new favourites’ i.e. those that grabbed the lead in the market late in the day due to sustained interest or when the paper favourites were on the drift.
6.20 Newcastle This is the race I’d look at today, because it has – as a class 4 – a bit more quality than the others and is run over a mile; two reasons why the form is likely to work out better than in the other lower-grade heats.
This is still a low-class race for Palmerston (12.0 on BETDAQ). He’s been seen in class 2 and class 3 in four races since July, winning one of them at Newmarket, perhaps the fairest of the turf courses. I’ll back the favourite as well, of course!
There was one for the money early here: back-to-form Mont Ras, despite his age, was in to 5.4 market leader, as I write.
JUST LOOK AT 15.0 BREEDERS’ CUP BET!
9.25 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf) Previous winning trainers, Aidan O’Brien and Todd Fletcher, have each won this twice since its inception in 2007. Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore have each won it three times.
The common denominator is O’Brien’s Intelligence Cross, ridden by Moore, but a winner only in Group 3.
The difference today is that his Group 3, and his Middle Park fourth to The Last Lion, were 6f sprints. This is a mile and likely to be flat out all the way, as is the American style.
His stablemate Lancaster Bomber has seen the tail lights of Churchill in three consecutive races at The Curragh (including the Futurity), and at Newmarket (Dewhurst), all over 7f
He was well beaten on yielding-soft ground but got much closer on the last day, a length and a quarter down, on good ground for the Dewhurst, allowed to dictate the pace. Moore prefers Intelligence Cross.
He chose right last year with Hit It A Bomb won, Seamie Heffernan being left in the rear on Shogun.
Frankie Dettori jumps on Rodaini (and may jump off again from a great height if he wins). He landed three in a row before being unlucky to stumble when a shorter price than the first two in a Group 3 at Newmarket (1m) early last month.
A line through Harbour Master doesn’t inspire me to Big Score and Bowie’s Hero. The value may be 15.0 BETDAQ offer Made You Look.
He beat Keep Quiet who beat Ticoneroga, who is about ‘the same horse’ as Good Samaritan, who beat Channel Maker and J S Choice. Phew!
10.05 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile) Six-in-a-row over 6f and 7f, Runhappy was beaten on his return to the track in his first attempt at a mile.
The jury is out until tonight, but the snag with the odds-on Dortmund is that he’s placed three times from 8f to 10f behind another six-time winner, California Chrome.
His optimum trip is in doubt and, though there’s no California Chrome tonight, the 7.0 Runhappy is clearly the value..
10.50 Santa Anita (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Fillies) The favourite Spain Burg has beaten Group-3 fillies, and Cavale Doree seems to be that level, too.
Ryan Moore’s pick of the O’Brien runners this time is Roly Poly, the Cherry Hinton winner who was second in both the Lowther Stakes and the Cheveley Park.
He leaves Hydrangea to Heffernan, with that one having been beaten by Intricately in the Moyglare for O’Brien’s son, Joseph, and slammed by Rhododendron in the Fillies’ Mile.
So the most likely father-and-son one-two is Roly Poly and Intricately, but which way round? I think Intricately is the improver at the trip: 7.6 on BETDAQ.
Victory To Victory for last year’s winning stable need blinkers to get off the mark so I prefer his barn mate, 9.0 offer La Coronel. So does jockey Geroux.
TWO WITH THE NOVEMBER X-FACTOR
3.35 Doncaster (tomorrow, November Handicap) As I forecast yesterday, last year’s winner, Litigant, holds up the handicap and the winningmost weights area of 8st 10lb to 8st 13lb points up Mistiroc and Montaly under the age of six, plus Mark Johnston’s Soldier In Action.
All three have Factor-X (a double-figure stall) but, as ever with Johnston horses, Soldier In Action is exposed with nine runs already this term, more than previous winners of the race (see yesterday’s ABC key).
ABCX Mistiroc
Well beaten the last twice, after back-to-back wins over this favoured trip and ground at Chester and Ascot.
Fourth in this race last year on heavy but, though 5lb higher now, has his conditions tomorrow.
ABCX Montaly
A hidden horse in that he’s always raced beyond his winning trip (1m 4f Haydock good) of two years ago, but success in a soft-ground handicap back at Haydock in September hasn’t done his mark any favours.
STALLS: The draw also favours Buonarotti, Cymro, Erik The Red, Mukhaayam, Green Light, Not So Sleepy, Prize Money, What About Carlo, William Hunter, Wrangler.
FORM: Buonarotti was second to Litigant in the race last year, with Mistiroc fourth, in heavy ground. Mistiroc much prefers the going on top.
Cymro is a Haydock horse. Prize Money drops from Group 3, hooded first time. What About Carlo hasn’t improved his rating in 10 races since the Spring; Not So Sleepy is better off on their first and third at Newbury recently but prefers softer ground, as does Wrangler.
Mukhayyam has won only a class 4 this year. Erik The Red is struggling, 10lb higher than his winning mark, whereas William Hunter has improved 10lb.
TRAINERS: Saeed Bin Suroor, with five winners in as many days, and William Haggas are flying! Haggas trainers the plunge horse, Wrangler.
David O’Meara is back to form but has lost punters 79 points at Doncaster.
John Gosden has already had four winners in November but Micky Hammond and Tim Easterby are both 0-29 in a fortnight. Alan King concludes his best-ever Flat season.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win PINKIE BROWN (2.00 Warwick)
BET 4.5pts win MONT RAS, and 1.8pts win and place PALMERSTON (6.20 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win INTELLIGENCE CROSS, and 1.3pts win MADE YOU LOOK (9.25 Santa Anita)
BET 3.3pts win (nap) RUNHAPPY (10.05 Santa Anita)
BET 3pts win INTRICATELY and 2.5pts win LA CORONEL (10.50 Santa Anita)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble A Toi Phil (3.00 Down Royal) and Apple’s Jade (1.50 Down Royal) with Runhappy (10.05 Santa Anita)
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