WHO ARE TRAINERS TO FOLLOW? Daqman opens his trainerform files – who’s doing best in what department? – before checking out their value at two meetings today: Catterick and Chepstow.
WHO IS HOT TV FAVOURITE? Daqman doesn’t read the other papers – what’s to read? – so he’s just caught up on the news of a man who could take racing interviews to a new level.
WHO’S GOT A CATTERICK BANKER? Daqman’s banker is at Catterick this afternoon but he spends his day’s wallet mainly on win-and-place bets, two of them at Chepstow.
WHO GIVES PRICEWISE A PASTING? Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s analyses at Ffos Las, Leopardstown and Sandown, including the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Irish Gold Cup, in which he tries to maintain his 24-8 lead over Pricewise.
IT’S WORTH KEEPING A STABLE WHO’S-WHO
I’m glad yesterday happened. Nap lost; lay won. It’s no good asking with hindsight – that old enemy – how could I have opposed Paul Nicholls’ double on his home track?
Answer: quite easily. He’s not the man he was (1-28 in two weeks up to yesterday) And we now have to treat the current champion like any in-and-out offender: stable not stable.
I can’t see him having a good Cheltenham (what with?) and he must now lodge in the same drawer as David Elsworth, Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies. It’s marked: Don’t expect to make a living from them; they’ll win races, but hard to know when anymore.
In the very bottom drawer are Don McCain, David Pipe, Michael Easterby, marked: not as good as they once were.
Top-drawer gold trainers – expect them to hit paydirt most of the time – are Alan King, Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Dan Skelton.
Then there are files for up-and-coming (Kerry Lee, Ben Pauling, Neil Mulholland), the cock o’the north having a great season (Nicky Richards) and handicap specialists (Philip Hobbs, Sue Smith, Venetia Williams and Oliver Sherwood).
Finally, there’s one marked: ‘pending’. Is a Jonjo O’Neill revival on the cards? Can Colin Tizzard’s Christmas spurt be sustained at Cheltenham? When, if ever, is Dr Richard Newland returning to that file designated for handicap kings?
Is Tony Martin still capable of the cunning coup? Who has the ‘hidden horses’ for the festival season of Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown?
Racing is a never-ending story, a treasure island of drama, surprises and intrigue.
And your money pays for it, whether you bet every day or you are hunting that one big whale of a winner, your Moby Dick.
Without the punter, the racing world could not revolve; would not bother to right its wrongs; and will be in deep doo-doo if it forgets you.
Your role is pleasure but also, if you want to make it pay, to keep your nose to the form and stats grindstone and the changing fortunes within the game. Like keeping files on the trainers.
JUST THE MAN TO SPOT THE ARKLE RINGER
They gave me three guesses. Who is favourite to host the terrestrial racing prog that will take over from Channel 4?
Is it Jeremy ‘I became unbusy’ Clarkson, Piers Morganyoucantake, or that old ‘poker player in a deerstalker’ John McCririck, who is as far from Sherlock Holmes as David Cameron is from Karl Marx.
Nope; none of those worthies. It’s a 50-year-old domestic-boxing referee called Kyle, the fights being kitchen-sink and bedroom dilemmas that he airs on his show between members of the great unwashed of England’s green and unpleasant land.
Those in the bookies at Warrington, Lancashire, in November 2014 would be the first to believe that he could join the sport of kings.
They watched Jeremy Nicholas Kyle perform a leaping and hugging frenzy of joy when his horse, Dormello Mo, landed him a gamble at Exeter.
Said an ITV source: ‘Jeremy is a fantastic presenter and has a great knowledge of racing due to his love of the sport. He speaks to a lot of trainers’.
I think he should guest on Channel-4 at Cheltenham in March, give us a taste of the attacking interview.
Kyle to trainer: ‘You say this horse is Don Poli. I can tell viewers now that it might be a ringer called Arkle. The DNA results will be revealed before the Gold Cup. We’ll be back after the break, folks.’
JUMP IN WITH MAXIMUM STAKES ON JALEO
1.20 Catterick John Ferguson has a specialist file all of his own: good on certain courses; good with a certain type of horse.
One of those courses would be Catterick, where he has a 71% hurdles strike-rate. And the ‘certain type’ would be the novice or juvenile hurdler.
Jaleo (1.20) has already scored on the A1 track, and those he gives weight to include a contender trained by Don McCain, who is going through lean times.
Jaleo’s market rival is Our Thomas, who has to overcome a long absence and the poor form of trainer, Tim Easterby, whose last five runners have been beaten a total of 192 lengths. So Jaleo looks a banker.
2.55 Catterick A trainer in my ‘handicap specialists’ file, Sue Smith, has angled course-winner Hainan into a handy weight mark for this much-needed step up in trip.
He now has his ground. BETDAQ offers of 6.2 early mouse.
Hartforth is not out of it; nor, too, Iron Butterfly, though up 18lb for a Doncaster hat-trick. I’m laying morning-favourite Tambura, a bit of a bridesmaid who is best in mud.
BALLYEGAN THE EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
2.45 and 3.15 Chepstow Bob Buckler is another trainer who has his own specialist slot: stayers. He currently does not have the riches of types like The Sawyer and Irish Grand National winner Niche Market.
But he still has his moments with Ballyegan (3.15) a winner five times for him, and Say My Name (2.45) likely to have a big say in the novices’ staying hurdle.
Say My Name’s biggest headache may be Dan Skelton’s Mister Kalanisi, a tasty 6.0 on BETDAQ, who showed a potential for stamina at Doncaster in December in a Betdaq.com maiden hurdle.
Ballyegan’s success has come only at Towcester and Taunton but he is ultra consistent, so courageously resisting the handicapper’s attempts to stop him that he’s been out of the first four only once in 15 starts.
A nice little earner for the trainer and the owner, who just happens to be Bob Buckler, himself. How to keep a stable going in these lean times!
Ballyegan is big at 6.8, with the in-and-out Venetia Williams seven-year-old Kings River at the front of market. He’ll slog it out if he’s in the mood.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) JALEO (1.20 Catterick)
BET 4pts win and place MISTER KALANISI, and 3pts win (stakes saver) SAY MY NAME (2.45 Chepstow)
LAY 5pts TAMBURA and BET 4pts win and place HAINAN (2.55 Catterick)
BET 3.4pts win and place BALLYEGAN, and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) KINGS RIVER (3.15 Chepstow)
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