FOUR WINNERS IN A ROW FOR 60 POINTS PROFIT IN A DAY: Daqman has belief; Daqman puts his own interpretation on the form; and yesterday he named FOUR winners in a row from three different meetings, including his supernap and excluding (in a photo-finish) a short-head defeat for a fifth winner at a fourth meeting!
Thursday: profit on the day: 60 points
WON 7-4 MEGALLAN (supernap), Salisbury
WON 5-6 CREATE BELIEF Leopardstown
WON 2-1 CRIMSON SAND Chelmsford
WON 1-1 INTERPRETATION Leopardstown
2ND 17-2 DREAM BIRD Beverley (beaten on the line)
SUPERNAPS AND LAYS LOGIC BOTH SHOW 75% STRIKE RATE: Magellan’s win means that in the last five days, Daqman has boosted the strike rate for his two rare special bets to 12-16 in each case for the whole of the Flat-racing season so far, following his lay of 6-4 Go Bears Go on Sunday. That’s 16 only bets since March; 12 correct in each case.
WON 7-4 MEGALLAN (Thursday): 12-16 Supernaps; 75%
WON (3rd 6-4) GO BEARS GO (Sunday): 12-16 Lays Logic; 75%
MEN IN FORM COMBINE WITH DREAM
⚠️ HEADS UP David Probert, in tremendous form with figures in the last two days of 111111310201, has six rides at Newbury today, including one for Rod Millman, who landed gambles with his last two runners yesterday, both starting favourite at Ffos Las and Salisbury.
Rod bids for the hat-trick today with Amazonian Dream (3.55) in the nursery, dropping him down from the Windsor Castle Stakes and the Super Sprint at Newbury. BETDAQ 6.8 taken.
⭕ 3.35 Nottingham (Colwick Cup) This race has no stats as today is the first running over 2m. Two old-timers meet: 2020 Ascot Stakes winner Coeur De Lion and Stargazer, a surprise 50-1 winner at Haydock last autumn.
The year-younger Speedo Boy has held his form for three summer shots (221) but it’s cost him 8lb., and he’s giving weight all round.
Byron Hill and Margaret Dumont should improve at age four, but so far neither is making headway, both stuck in a ratings rut.
Roar has been the improver this year. He won over hurdles in the Spring and scored on the Flat just 10 days ago.
His Flat form now looks wrong, 42lb below his 115 hurdles mark, which – at the weights today – would put him clear of the NH ratings of Speedo Boy and Coeur De Lion.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 4.6 Roar
EARLSWOOD TO HAVE THE WHIP HAND
⭕ 6.00 The Curragh (Royal Whip) Winners by stall of this Group 3 (nine years) 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2 are largely accounted for by the small number of starters. Yet those results have persisted with recent larger fields.
Or is the coincidence that the best horses seem to be in the lowest stalls? The paper forecast had at the front of today’s market Leo De Fury (stall 3), Innisfree (out of the one stall), Earlswood (2) and Visualisation (4) so, theoretically, the form horses are the 1, 2, 3, 4 line-up in the gate!
I put up Innisfree in my 2019 Fortune Cookies as likely winner of the next 2,000 Guineas when he won the Beresford Stakes but quickly switched to Kameko after that one took the Futurity at Newcastle, with Inisfree beaten into second and never to race again until today. Kameko (WON 10-1), of course, was my hero of the 2020 Newmarket Guineas.
Leo De Fury was stone last to Armory in this Royal Whip a year ago, after being second the year before, and looks destined for a place again at best, now aged five.
The favourite this morning, Earlswood won the Gallinule here over this 1m 2f CD in the Spring but, after being bumped and getting tightened up, was an unlucky nine-lengths fourth in the Irish Derby, just behind Wordsworth.
I’d have to qualify that by saying ‘unlucky not to get third,’ because the front two – Hurricane Lane and Lone Eagle – flew clear of the tiring animals behind them.
It’s also a worry that Earlswood’s peak form seems to be on heavy but Johnny Murtagh, who won the Desmond with Create Belief yesterday, says he’s already looking forward to a crack at British Champions day.
Visualisation is up 24lb in four runs this year, but winning form has also come only on soft-heavy.
She was beaten on her sole start at 10 furlongs but it was no shame to run up to Foxes Tales, giving a lump of weight to the winner who has scored again since in a Group 3. Oodnadatta has won only her maiden; always a bad sign, so I’m leaving her out.
Into the fray on the ratings comes Reve De Vol, a CD winner first run back but disappointing next time. He did the same thing last year so gelding seems to have made no difference to his brain at the other end.
BETDAQ value 3.15 Earlswood
WORDSWORTH CAN PASS LEGER TEST
⭕ 7.00 Curragh (Irish St Leger Trial) Wordsworth, third in the Irish Derby when Earlswood was blocked, then second, a similar distance behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Partis, is brother to Kew Gardens so he could be sheer poetry stepped up in trip for this Leger test.
Princess Zoe, who has to give him 8lb, presumably rules herself out of the Ebor, by running here, though that’s never held back the Irish. All her best form is on soft-heavy so the drying ground may be against her tonight.
Emperor Of The Sun wasn’t far off in the Vintage Crop over this far and at this level and, with that first run of the season under his belt, won the Saval Beg three weeks later.
His efforts in Group-1 Cup races over extreme distances shouldn’t put you off. He’s probably been saved up for this; for sure they haven’t had a penny on him so far, his SPs in the last year or so 11-1, 40-1, 18-1, 16-1, 10-1.
The alternative view is that he’s not up to much and beat an average bunch of stayers in the Saval Beg.
BETDAQ value 2.82 Wordsworth
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.35 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 2.25pts win ROAR
3.55 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win AMAZONIAN DREAM
6.0 The Curragh (win 12)
BET 5.5pts win EARLSWOOD
7.00 The Curragh (win 12 nap)
BET 6.5pts win WORDSWORTH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
