LARK LANDS THE NAP: NOW FOR THE CUP: Daqman’s nap was back to form yesterday. A sequence which included Hallelujah (WON 7-1) was picked up again yesterday with The Lark (WON 15-8). Today’s best bet is another good offer. It’s in the Doncaster Cup.
LOOK OUT FOR ACES IN THE DONCASTER PACK TOMORROW: Daqman’s bets have been struck at his lowest stakes level this week, with the change of going, but he is upping the ante for Ladbrokes St Leger day tomorrow, hoping to turn a couple of aces, though he’d prefer a full house, like last weekend’s stunning spree of nine winning bets on the Sunday.
A 100-1 winner and one at 1,000.0 in running tells you what kind of week it’s been. I needed a faller to get my nap home yesterday, and my gamble of the week (Fairway To Heaven 9-2 from 10-1) failed by a neck. As the man said in the House of Games, it happens to the best and it happens to the rest.
1.40 Doncaster (Flying Childers Stakes) It’s 300 years come next Spring since Flying Childers was foaled. I wonder if they’ll still be celebrating Frankel in 2314?
Punters usually get this race right. Only one winner in eight years has been bigger than 9-2 and five favourites have won. On form, Wind Fire would be a decent bet to continue the trend, but for the vagaries of racing on good-to-soft ground, and the stats also say that it’s honours even (3-3) between colts and fillies since 2007.
Wind Fire was third in the Lowther but her best form was probably today’s 5f (form figures 131 at the minimum since her debut) when she ran third, the only filly against the colts, in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot.
The winner that day, No Nay Never, is a monster – he won the Prix Morny – and, though she is not so boosted by those immediately behind her (two places at Group-3 level since), last year’s winner of this had finished fourth in the Morny.
On a line through No Nay Never, Brown Sugar and Co., Wind Fire has more than three lengths over Ambiance, the Molecomb third (Sleeper King fourth), but that race is the only one in the pattern on softish ground among the form for all today’s runners, except for Excel’s Beauty’s modest Listed fourth at York.
That’s what you’re up against. And the trainers know it. They tell the Racing Post: “Ambiance doesn’t want it too soft.. Conditions might not be ideal for Extortionist.. Green Door will like the cut.. It would help if it dried up for Thunder Strike.. If they get a lot more rain I might decide against running Excel’s Beauty.. the ground is going to be easier than Wind Fire has encountered.’
The only good news is that BETDAQ layers make offers which add up to only 104%, at the time of writing. Yesterday at Doncaster, the bookies opened with a resounding 121% thump in the face of every backer. But I’ve kept my stakes down to win-20 for the third day running.
2.10 Doncaster (Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes): Sir Graham Wade last year broke my duck in this! Well, I have to keep my sense of humour, though, in fact, this ‘mallard’ is not a duck but a famous engine on the London N.E. Railway in the days when trains were treated like beautiful women (nowadays trains just behave like women: always late).
Sir Graham Wade returned a three-year-old to the podium for the first time in four years: they are 6-4 down overall to older horses in the decade.
The attraction of the older ones today is that they’ve had their share of racing on the soft – Camborne, Songcraft and Tenenbaum have all won with plenty of cut in the ground – whereas the second-season animals have endured the rare baking-hot summer.
The only clue we have to their ability to act is the one stable comment after Time For Action was a beaten favourite at Roscommon: ‘He did not enjoy the soft ground.’
In a 106% ‘book’ in the orange, Shwaiman looks the best of the three-year-olds, having been placed behind the smart Feel Like Dancing on good to soft last season, and Songcraft is a big price (11.5) of the older horses, running well this season in conditions far from ideal for this winner on good and soft ground only.
2.40 Doncaster Cup Last year’s winner (Times Up), second (High Jinx), fourth (Repeater) and seventh (Colour Vision) are back for more. But can we trust that result in a race run more than six seconds slower than average?
The BETDAQ market this morning says that High Jinx will turn around the form with Times Up, and that Biographer comes into the equation. All three are winners on good-to-soft ground.
The snag with High Jinx, last seen at Sandown in May, is that his form after a break is 344, and he is a notorious bridesmaid, with a sequence of 2222 and only one win on the CV in more than 26 months.
He did, indeed, finish in front of Times Up that day at Sandown but it was first run back for Times Up, recently third in the Lonsdale Cup at the Ebor Festival, despite running out of room at the business end of the race.
And, since there was only half a length between High Jinx and Colour Vision last autumn, you really are talking about a situation in line with the ratings: 112 High Jinx and Times Up, 110 Colour Vision. Biographer is only Listed level so far but we are unlikely to have seen the best of him at age four, and he doesn’t have to improve much to win this. He is already on 109 and he has the look of ‘laid out for the race’, with the Lanagan stable always great value at Doncaster.
3.15 Doncaster (May Hill Stakes) Only the front three in the market, Ihtimal, Majeyda and Qawaasem, have achieved a rating in line with previous winners of this race.
And the orange offers I see before me (102%) go well underround if you delete the maidens, Halljoy, Lady Lara and Vivere, most unlikely winners of a Group 2, with Lady Lara exposed after four runs, Vivere once raced and Halljoy already well behind Qawaasem.
Ihtimal (rated 104) stands out on form, having won the Group-3 Sweet Solera, and with just a neck between Majeyda (97) and Qawaasem (100) at Sandown in July.
Which of these has improved? What will go on good-to-soft? It’s the same Rubik’s Cube we’ve had for two days at Doncaster.
Ihtimal’s sire has had 72 winners on soft ground but that also applies to Qawaasem (same daddy), and I’m taking his 5.6 with a saver on the favourite.
Incidentally, Breden (3.05 Sandown) has the same soft-ground sire as this pair, and the Gosden yard has another hot chance with Munhamer (4.15), significantly upped in trip for first-time handicap.
4.25 Doncaster Guessing time again in the 3.50 for two-year-olds, so I’ve skipped to this handicap, hoping for better luck than with Fairway To Heaven.
This time – yes, it’s a grey day – the one to be on is Shropshire (8.0 on BETDAQ this morning), quiet at Goodwood on his first start since runner-up in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, getting his conditions today for the first time this year.
Shropshire has to give weight all round but several here are massively higher than their winning mark – Bertiewhittle, Corporal Maddox, Dubawi Sound (all 12lb above) – and the selection has gained his high rating running well on an unsuitable surface (he’s won twice on good to soft).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5.5pts win WIND FIRE (1.40 Doncaster)
BET 7pts win SHWAIMAN and 2pts win SONGCRAFT (2.10 Doncaster)
BET 5.8pts win (nap) BIOGRAPHER (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 5pts win BREDEN and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) RUSSIAN REALM (3.05 Sandown)
BET 4.3pts win QAWAASEM and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) IHTIMAL (3.15 Doncaster)
BET 4.5pts win MUNHAMER (4.15 Sandown)
BET 2.8pts win SHROPSHIRE (4.25 Doncaster)
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