YES, IT’S A FABULOUS FIVE NAPS IN A ROW: It’s the Oaks today and the Derby tomorrow, and Daqman yesterday followed up a best-bets bonanza at 2-1, 15-8, 6-4 and 4-7 with Alcaeus (WON 1-2), making it five consecutive winning naps.
100 UP SIX TIMES IN MAGICAL MAY: If you’ve just joined us for this Classic weekend, it dawns on the final day of Daqman’s magical May, marked by six big hits of 100-plus points:
115 points profit with eight winners in four days up to May 2.
137 points on May 5 and 6 (including a Bank Holiday) and with first sequence of naps this month of five out of six.
115 points in one day, a super Saturday of eight winners (May 11)
114 points up Monday-Thursday last week with wins day after day
165 points on Tuesday, with 6-1 and 7-2 winners, plus three doubles and a treble
103 points from Wednesday’s haul of three more doubles and a treble, winners including 7-2, 3-1 and 5-2.
NOW IT’S 284 POINTS FROM THREE WINNING DAYS: The two-day blitz, of 168 then 103 points on Tuesday and Wednesday, was added to yesterday with Alcaeus and Spa’s Dancer (WON 2-1) to bring his total profit since Tuesday to 284 points.
1.35 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) One of Sir Michael Stoute’s favourite races but Ultrasonic hasn’t won since first-time hooded on soft ground last July.
She’s got some cut today but was kept to 6f all last year so this mile-plus is an adventure. However, Sir Michael, a master at improving older animals, started her off in a Group 3 over 7f three weeks ago in a race which has produced the winner of this several times and as if better things are expected.
Ultrasonic was badly away and then denied a clear run at the business end of that race, which was won by the progressive Lily’s Angel. She’s bred for this trip and time spent at 6f should have injected some speed into her.
A middle draw up to this mile-and-a-bit is useful, though the rails squeeze can easily be overcome by classy animals over longer distances.
In the last seven years, the Princess Elizabeth has been won every time by fillies and mares drawn from 5 to 7 (three each in 5 and 6, and one in 7) and Ultrasonic has 6.
At 8.6 in a 104% BETDAQ-value list of offers in the orange, she is taken to beat Starscope, who is a frustrating ‘nearly horse’ because she has been placed at the highest level but is reluctant to win.
Lady’s First is also difficult to win with. Thistle Bird is badly drawn in the ‘coffin box’, stall 1. Sentaril has a shout but is yet another with a poor strike-rate.
It’s one of those races where any one of half a dozen in a quirky bunch could win on the nod on the day and I could cover two or three but I’ll just spend a modicum and take a chance on Ultrasonic.
2.10 Epsom The last six winners have all carried more than 9st, as if this is a ‘class will out’ race. Five of the last six have been aged four or five.
Though giving weight all round, the three-races-fit Fattsota is a van runner suited to this track and plummets from a Group race to a class-2 handicap. Boonga Roogeta is in a very similar situation, a van runner also back to her class, but a more prolific winner.
Area Fifty One won here in the Spring but has never been a horse to get his head in front back to back. But Blue Surf wins when fresh and has already taken care of several of these.
Pilgrims Rest also wins first time, though his success has come at a lower level and you would expect that Resurge, who has a modest strike-rate (like Tres Coronas), will need the run.
2.45 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) This is usually a horrible race for punters – the favourite never wins – but it’s a small field today. The last eight had all had two or three runs, or one win, prior to the race.
None in the last eight seasons carried a Group penalty and nine out of 10 have weighed out with 9st 4lb (which is 9st 5lb equivalent today).
Gabrial, Gregorian, Producer.. that’s how it’s looking. Oh dear, they would be the first three favourites. But, then, we’re talking BETDAQ, and so there is intrinsic value (the orange list is only 103%).
Gabrial is visored. This is a wise move for a horse who hangs; but the camber could still be his undoing. Producer has failed at all mile attempts.
So it is that I’m going Gregorian, a rare thing for me siding with a ‘nearly horse’ but his places without winning were in Group 1s. He really ought to win this and the 4.6 on BETDAQ this morning is generous.
4.00 Epsom (The Oaks) Check out my ABC guide and X-Factor from Tuesday’s Daqman Archive. A fabulous 102% list of offers on BETDAQ, and my conclusion is that this is a five-filly race: for me they were the stars of five trials, and this is my order in:
1 Secret Gesture A 10-lengths winner of the Lingfield trial, this is a not-overly-big nippy filly who handled similar turns to that which she will encounter today and on similar ground.
Beat nothing special but impressed the handicapper to give her the highest rating in today’s field. The perfect breeding for this, by Galileo out of an Arc-winning family, she has the ‘coffin box’ stall, trap-1 draw to overcome, though there’s plenty of time and several fillies with no early pace will fall away on the first hill.
Draw effect is most serious up to 1m and in handicaps – it’s a big edge when the handicapper has them all weighted to finish level – and there are few non-handicaps over 1m 4f at Epsom: Salsabil won the Oaks from stall 1 in 1990 and Eswarah from stall 2 in 2005.
2 The Lark There was a small field, with no pace on, in the Swettenham trial at Newbury a fortnight ago and The Lark was beaten in a poor time.
Similar lightly-raced types have won the Oaks, and on the few occasions her sire, Pivotal, has been mated with stamina, he produced Sariska, also trained by Michael Bell and winner of the English and Irish Oaks.
You and I were winners already this morning, with a 104% list of offers in the BETDAQ orange and 21.0 The Lark was good value.
3 Moth Finished well in the 1,000 Guineas and Classic form is often better than any trial, though her jockey, Joseph O’Brien, is on record as saying she is best on an even track. That suggests she’ll be a tricky ride on the Epsom hills and bends.
The Galileo filly has stamina on the dam’s side and the second horse in her Guineas won The Curragh version. Should reach the frame.
4 Liber Nauticus Like The Lark, we didn’t see her at her best in the Musidora trial, finding her stride late on the tacky ground. Sweating up beforehand, she herself wasn’t impressive.
Seemingly endowed with stamina, and unbeaten in two runs, she is by a stallion who gets good fillies, and master trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, should have her in rude health today. Something to prove but bullish noises from Ryan Moore.
5 Banoffee She didn’t beat much in the Cheshire Oaks but handled the turning track well and surged to the line showing her strength at the business end of the race.
Her sire has yet to get a Group-1 winner and the dam’s side suggests the uphill finish may find her out. But she is unexposed and has done no wrong so far.
DAQMAN’S BETS
GOLD VALUE BET: 2.6pts win ULTRASONIC (1.35 Epsom)
VALUE BETS: 5.4pts win BLUE SURF, plus 1.4pts win FATTSOTA and 1.1pts win BOONGA ROOGETA (2.10 Epsom)
VALUE BET: 6.6pts win (nap) GREGORIAN (2.45 Epsom)
VALUE BETS: 8pts win SECRET GESTURE, and 1pt win and place THE LARK (4.00 Epsom)
BET 1.8pts win PICABO (7.45 Goodwood)
BET 1.25pts win and place RICARDO’S GIRL (5.30 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble GREGORIAN (2.45 Epsom) with ATHENIAN (7.45 Goodwood) and INTERIOR MINISTER (8.00 Bath)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: Despite top-class racing, bets remain staked to win 20 points, because of the inconsistent going.
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