SIX NAPS IN A ROW WITH HIS NECK ON THE LINE: Daqman was nervous about his banker yesterday and, sure enough, Joyeuse (WON 8-11) held on by a rapidly diminishing neck on the line in a photo-finish at Salisbury. It was our man’s sixth consecutive winning nap, and his 20th winning bet in a week:
BANKER Saturday INTEGRAL (WON 13-8 dd ht)
BANKER Sunday NOVELLIST (WON 3-10)
NAP Monday PILATES (WON 5-2)
NAP Tuesday GOAL (WON 7-4)
NAP Wednesday SUGAR HICCUP (WON 6-4)
BANKER Yesterday JOYEUSE (WON 8-11)
ANOTHER BANKER BET TODAY: Daqman goes to Newcastle for another banker bet today, hoping for winning nap number seven to maximum stakes. But, with no quality conditions race like the Joyeuse event, he adds some good-odds BETDAQ offers in the handicaps as he scours the afternoon meetings up and down the country.
What do these races have in common? Sprints, maidens, two-year-old races, sellers and apprentice-only stakes. Too many imponderables or, as W C Fields might have put it: ‘They don’t give a sucker an even break.’
Sprints can be affected by the draw, a bad start, a breakneck pace. Two-year-old races almost always contain unknown quantities. Sellers and auction races have ulterior motives of buying and selling at the right price. Claimers’ races are about skill and no skill in the saddle.
But maidens are probably most difficult of all, since it’s anybody’s guess (however shrewd that guess) which of the horses are intended to ‘go for it’ and which are totting up their three runs before being eligible for a handicap mark, so keeping their true worth well concealed.
My list of races to avoid reduces to nine those most likely to yield us winning nap number seven on turf this afternoon. And they are all handicaps, usually swerved by professional punters because finding an edge is difficult when the handicapper has had his go at equalizing the horses and having them finish in line.
Today is not normally a day for favourites. Winning outright market leaders over five years in the nine races on which I’m concentrating: 3.40 Newcastle: none; 4.40 one; 5.45 none. Chepstow 2.50 two; 3.20 one; 5.20 none. Haydock 4.00 one; 4.30 one; 5.00 one.
CHEPSTOW The race to chase may be the 3.20 (7f handicap), for which high numbers are best. In fact, no horse drawn lower than seven has reached the first two in the last three seasons.
Valdaw was runner-up last year but is 8lb higher today and, in fact, has never managed to win beyond 6f. And, like The Great Gabrial, he has scored only on AW.
Emiratesdotcom also struggles to win beyond sprint distances, and the most interesting pair – both dropped in grade – are Carlarajah (blinkered first time) and the lightly-raced Thankyouverymuch (high drawn in 12, thankyou very much).
But even old-timer My Learned Friend has a chance in this (if it doesn’t rain) in a low-flying class-6. No nap material here, then.
And the last race on the card (5.20) is tough: Flash Crash is reckoned 10lb head of the handicapper – goes up tomorrow – but I shall take him on.
What on earth is he doing being hiked that much for winning a slow-run apprentice race? He’s not even proved at today’s trip, and animals at this low level (class 5) rarely put back-to-back wins together. That also applies to Whitefall and Eton Rambler.
Afro probably needs rain for in-form Peter Hedger, but that would spoil the chances of Knights Parade for the leading Chepstow trainer, percentage-wise, Amanda Perrett.
I’d back Almail, returning after a long absence, and crashed down the handicap, if there’s any money for him. Interesting jockey booking.
HAYDOCK The racing is much better class than at Chepstow, and we ought to be able to fathom a bet or two, if only the ground remains stable (there is rain about, with potentially heavy showers during the afternoon).
Ryan Moore has had a winner every day for four days now and, leaving aside long-odds-on shot Merletta (2.30), should pay to follow.
Two things immediately spoil the opener (2.00) for me, apart from the tricky trip of 5f: Moore has an excellent strike-rate for David Elsworth (Senator Song) but I can no more trap an Elzy winner than catch a wasp at a picnic. Secondly, the race is handed to the 2011 winner, Mayoman, if the rain comes in any quantity.
Conversely, Moore’s next choice, Lionheart (3.00) doesn’t want a spot of precipitation, and the first solid chance of finding a quality horse is in the class-3 at 4 o’clock.
Croquembouche and Love Marmalade are likely to make a strong pace, and you can leave out older horses, which never figure in this. In fact, I would leave it to the three-year-olds, if it wasn’t for the enigma, Anomaly.
The 2012 King George V Handicap fourth shoud be ready after a quiet run back after injury and, as a Pivotal, would probably welcome any rain. But the Appleby stable also runs Ennistown, twice a Haydock winner.
CD-scorer Double Discount was not wanted at Goodwood at 12-1, upped in grade, and could bounce back here at the main expense of Ryan Moore’s ride, Gworn, who has looked in need of this trip and wouldn’t mind rain. But, with the Appleby stable clouding the crystal ball, it’s hard to be nap confident of anything.
At level 3, horses can hold their form, and Big Johnny D (4.30) will be favourite to land the hat-trick though, as a front-runner, would be vulnerable to an improver, with his ratings rise of 13lb.
Well, there are only two three-year-olds likely to be climbing ladders. One of them, Purcell, likes to race on the turn, is raised only 3lb for two good runs and is not ground dependent.
But there’s a punting decision to be made about Purcell: he is up a furlong, and the pace of the race will be a whole lot different. The question to be answered is: has he been doing well over 6f, despite needing further, or is this a 6f horse chancing his arm at 7f today?
The sire says he’s a sprinter but the dam’s side says he’s a stayer (7f to 1m 4f). So this race is worth a try. But is he worth the nap?
NEWCASTLE Back to the depths of class 5 and 6 here. But the meeting has another Flash Crash. This time, it’s Filia Regina (3.40) 8lb ahead of the handicapper, with Jamie Spencer travelling up for Ed Dunlop.
This is a daughter of Ed’s super-mare Ouija Board. Bred in the purple, by Galileo, she came from her three maidens and entered handicapping at Yarmouth, hardly off the bit to win in a canter.
The time was slow. In fact, she’s never been in a race yet. But the signs are that she can land the odds this afternoon, with nothing of note in the opposition and 10.5 bar one on BETDAQ this morning.
At 1.82 at the time of writing, in a 108% list of offers, she is still punter friendly, giving a better-than-80% return on investment. I’m forced into the maximum-stakes situation again, and I just hope she holds her form.
NAP VERDICT: I don’t like betting in low-level races and I don’t like to see an animal kept to a low level after winning easily but Dunlop and Spencer are travelling to the Northeast for Ouija Board’s owner, Lord Derby, glad to have had a win out of her for paddocks purposes and hoping she holds her form.
At long last we have a conditions race at Kempton tonight (8.20) but choosing between Night Song and Sound Reflection is for suckers (back to W C Fields). The rest of the day of moderate handicaps dictates what the nap shall be and the price dictates that she must be banker staked.
DAQMAN’S BETS
staked to win 20 points, except the banker
BET 3pts win THANKYOU VERY MUCH (3.20 Chepstow)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FILIA REGINA (3.40 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win GWORN and 3pts win DOUBLE DISCOUNT (4.00 Haydock)
BET 5pts win PURCELL (4.30 Haydock)
BET 0.4pts win and place ALMAIL (5.20 Chepstow)
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