KINGFISHER FOR DERBY-TRIAL DOUBLE: For the second year running, Aidan O’Brien can complete the Chester Derby-trials double of Vase and Dee Stakes when Kingfisher is Daqman’s selection on the Roodeye this afternoon.
IT’S DAQMAN 27, PRICEWISE 7: Daqman again locks horns with the Racing Post tipster, Pricewise, when it’s heads down in the 1.45 and 2.15 at Chester. The Flat-season score is 27-7 to Daqman (overall 66-19).
GO WITH THE FLOW TONIGHT: Daqman continues his race analysis into this evening’s meetings, when he rates Chocola a 10-pointer at Ascot and makes Flow his best of the day at Ripon..
14.0 DANCING IRISH FILLY IS BEST OUTSIDER Ballydoyle magician Aidan O’Brien can land the same Derby-trial double. With Orchestra playing up his last year’s Chester Vase winnings with Ruler Of The World, he now has two chances in today’s Dee Stakes, which he also won last year with Magician.
Orchestra looked a big lugger but I wrote off Ruler Of The World after he rolled about up the Roodeye straight last season, and O’Brien is just now starting to get purchase from the potential in his team.
I opened my betting yesterday with another Irish trainer, Kilkenny’s John Patrick Shanahan, who does well at Chester but just missed out with my nap, That’s Plenty.
Today he has Drummore Road in the Dee Stakes and Dancing Cosmos (see 3.50 below for my outsider of the day) in the 7f handicap, in with a chance of the headlines, if only in the local paper, the Kilkenny People.
I pass on a reader’s quote its PRs have culled for a Facebook blurb: “Sure, tis a good local paper; great to be in it, as long as you’re not in the obituaries.’ I’ve heard of ghostwriters but you’d have to be a ghost reader to know if you were in the obits!
Yes, it’s good to be alive on the second day of Chester, if only narrowly in profit yesterday thanks to Orchestra (WON 3-1).
The ground was riding about 5secs slow and the bookies were down on their knees, offering around 115% average per race against their usual 130-something, which all goes to show what a trappy card it was.
If you don’t know already, the BETDAQ overround of offers in the orange is invariably in single figures of a morning so, even if you – and I – can’t pick the winner when the markets are shaping up, we ought to be getting an early position.
I once asked an Australian professional punter, Murray Dwyer – best in the business I’ve ever known – what to look for when considering your first bet in a race. ‘A runner!’ came his reply, with the rider ‘if the book is punter friendly.’
1.45 Chester In this opener, it’s currently 5-5 in the decade, a dead-heat, between four and five year olds in the race. The draw? Ditto yesterday: you need one tucked in on the rails that can make the burst at that cutaway, or a stormer down the outside.
In fact, with the rail pushed out over the churned-up ground, some jocks were angling across to the other side yesterday.
Big Johnny D looks likely to take them all on down the rail. The ground helps but the handicapper doesn’t: he has failed so far to overcome a 22lb stopper since August, though is lightly raced, with just 11 starts on his CV.
With Capo Rosso out, Richard Kingscote may switch to one of the other Tom Dascombe runners – they haven’t told me – probably Deauville Prince, who ran only in the Pattern as a three-year-old, and won a Listed, but hasn’t been seen for more than a year.
Here Comes When is another dropped from Group and Listed company, and also returning from a long absence after injury. The difference is that he’s won over today’s course and distance – drawn in the one stall, which he has again today – and he goes well fresh.
As for Abseil, second guessing Sir Michael Stoute is hard work. ‘Could be anything’, despite the 13 stall; ‘beat nothing’ at Yarmouth though, in handicapping terms, finished a stone in front of the second horse.
Pintura won at this meeting last year and likes soft ground but he’s older – yet up in the weights – and Kevin Ryan’s seven turf winners so far have cost 67 losers.
Laffan is out near the city walls in 14 but is 50% win and place on left-handed turning tracks (Epsom, Chester, Southwell) and Tim Easterby, who won here yesterday, has leapt several rungs up the trainer’s ladder in the last year, Flat and jumps.
VERDICT: Pricewise spoils our Easterby indicators (his horses are backed when they win), because the lemmings will see to it that it shortens up, which will disguise the real market information.
Laffan was very hard to win with last year and is racing off a mark that has so far proved beyond him. But, if you want to back him, the 19.0 on BETDAQ this morning was sure to shorten. Maybe even a back and lay.
I’ll dutch the two four-year-olds, Here Comes When and Abseil, one either side of the track, at 4.8 and 6.0 respectively on BETDAQ as I write.
2.15 Chester (Dee Stakes) Strange are the ways of race-planning: Magician won £34,000 when this was a Group 3 last year. Now it’s downgraded to Listed level, the first-prize money (penalty value) has gone up to £42,000.
A fact not lost on Messrs Magnier, Tabor and Smith, with recent Ballydoyle form figures in this: 1133011. They are back for more but which one to go for after Ryan Moore stole yesterday’s Vase from Joseph O’Brien?
As that illustrated, even Aidan the Magus simply doesn’t know which from among his Classic animals at this stage (that’s why these races are called trials): not even Ladbrokes could split Century and Kingfisher this morning (3-1 each of two).
VERDICT: Kingfisher has had an outing and his assertive style of running suggests that Chester will suit and that a change of surface can turn around the firm-ground form with Somewhat in the Royal Lodge, run at a time when Ballydoyle was under a cloud.
2.45 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) We have and have not Ernest Hemingway; withdrawn, with his success so far on firm ground. Mount Athos, who beat only a steeplechaser and a handicapper in this last year, also bows out.
In any case, Mount Athos was remote behind Brown Panther in the Goodwood Cup and this was always a matter of whether Tom Dascombe’s older horse can win a tactical match with Hillstar, whose
trainer produced a King George winner in this in 2010 with Harbinger.
This column was ‘on’ Harbinger that day, and at Ascot, but I have no vibes from the gallops, from the ‘good book’ or from my instinct about Hillstar.
VERDICT: In fact, Hillstar seems to have wasted his second season by pulling too hard, and is dropped in class for this.
So will he be given his head here, or is this the place to find out whether he can be a good boy and save his energy?
There are even mixed messages from his entries – the Hardwicke Stakes (1m 4f) and the Eclipse (1m 2f) – which is hardly inspiring for today’s 1m 5f on the soft. Has Stoutie worked the oracle again; can Brown Panther score on his local track? Pass.
3.15 Chester Fine Cut for J P McManus has won back to back on the Dundalk Polytrack (rated 80) but looks hard done by here, having to race on turf off 90 (still a maiden; form figures 0000).
Both the tiny filly Blithe Spirirt and Fine ‘n Dandy have course winning form from the front on softish ground. See The Sun is another who can lead but he gets 6f well and may be strongest at the finish.
3.50 Chester Back to Kilkenny and, despite her wide draw, the progressive Dancing Cosmos, 14.0 on BETDAQ as I write, is brought right in by Ladbrokes to only 8-1. My outsider of the day, win and place.
6.05 Ascot Four-year-olds almost always win this, and Chocola is held in high regard, likes the ground and is giving only a handful of pounds to a class-4 performer, Ashdown Lad, his only rival in the BETDAQ market this morning.
Chocola has stepped up from class-4 winner to class-3 second and then class-2 third on the last day, when placed behind two of those in the frame in the Chester Cup.
7.35 Ripon Flow, unlucky at Newbury, and the ‘moral’ at York, beaten a head but giving 10lb to the winner, has a future belied by tempting 4.4 offers on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win HERE COMES WHEN and 4pts win ABSEIL (1.45 Chester)
BET 4pts win KINGFISHER (2.15 Chester)
BET 6pts win SEE THE SUN (3.15 Chester)
BET 1.5pts win and place DANCING COSMOS (3.50 Chester)
BET 10pts win CHOCOLA (6.05 Ascot)
BET 6pts win (nap) FLOW (7.35 Ripon)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
