NOT-SO-FINAL FLING OVER JUMPS: Says Daqman: ‘There is no end to the Jumps these days and we have Aintree and Punchestown soon to come, but there is no real start to the Flat either. We’ll draw the line today with a final-fling Jumps banker and bull’s-eye bet.’
THE LINCOLN HANDICAPS WEEKEND: ‘The Flat season will start for me tomorrow with the Lincoln handicap and on Sunday, the Irish Lincolnshire.’ Good luck from Daqman, who will be going flat out for big winners as usual.
PEARL CASTLE A BULL’S-EYE BET IN THIS GRADE
2.10 Newcastle After back-to-back wins in 2012-13, but no runner last year, Keith Reveley picks up on the hat-trick trail in this race with Donna’s Pride, like his two previous winners already placed at Newcastle this season.
Reveley is currently striking at 50% and the mare that beat Donna’s Pride at Newcastle earlier has been a 14-lengths winner since.
Mossies Well beat a field of losers at Ayr; Looking Well has not been seen since early November and Itchmei’Mscratch since October.
3.10 Newcastle I was going to put up Azure Glamour as outsider of the day in his first handicap, although the Racing Post computer has missed him out of its Handicap Debut list.
In November, Azure Glamour was made favourite for a big-field race at Ayr and then ran in rear of stable champion Glingerburn at Doncaster.
Azure Glamour has missed out the bad ground in the winter months and Nicky Richards has returned to form this year with a great run. Outsider of the day? No, the gelding has leapfrogged into the favourite’s spot on BETDAQ this morning.
3.40 Newcastle While Richards was out of form, And The Man ran up a sequence of PPP but, in the past, has won all his races in the early part of the year: 1112 in February.
And The Man was runner-up over today’s course and distance in February this year. Was that his chance gone to waste? He’s always needed mud to show his best and all his wins have been at Ayr.
Today he’s up against sequence builders Montoya’s Son (four in a row) and De Vous A Moi (going for a hat-trick).
Montoya’s Son can again beat Trust Thomas on CD form earlier in the month and is one of those we know favours a sounder surface. The others are Gleann Na Ndochais (back to his right trip), Orsippus (not won for two years) and Shadows Lengthen (stable out of form).
De Vous A Moi has gone up 22lb in a month for back-to-back wins and that may stop him. So I reckon this between Montoya’s Son (4.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) and Gleann Na Ndochais, who looks big on this ground at 14.0.
4.15 Newcastle Dark Dune is 131 at Newcastle, where he beat Midnight Game in February, but didn’t like the tough hurdles at Haydock on the last day.
Ivan Boru is back to form over hurdles after a poor spell chasing, and both Jet Master and Robbie have also switched back to the lesser obstacles.
At ages 9 and 10, they may not have the speed to get to front-runner Dark Dune, while Avidity and Emral Silk are winners only in class 4.
But Pearl Castle would eat these for breakfast on a good day, and is a huge offer at 6.0 on BETDAQ as I write. He won both his races in ordinary company but drops back to this level after running in the Triumph Hurdle, and Punchestown Champion Four-year-Old and Galway hurdles.
TOM SCU MOUNT IS THE WORD IN THE VILLAGE
3.55 Wetherby Two long-distance raiders could battle out this handicap hurdle: Le Fin Bois, all the way up from Welsh Wales under Richard Johnson, and Mr Burbidge, first time in a handicap.
The handicapper may regret dropping the Auteuil winner Le Fin Bois fully 15lb since November, now that the five-year-old is down in grade.
Mr Burbidge is from a stable in massive form. Neil Mulholland, currently 1141, has had 46 winners this season from his yard near Bath. I took 5.4 Le Fin Bois and 7.8 Mr Burbidge offers on BETDAQ this morning.
4.30 Wetherby Mulholland sees a big future for Shantou Village, and specifically wanted Tom Scudamore to take the ride on this Irish point winner. Finale-day nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5.7pts win DONNA’S PRIDE (2.10 Newcastle)
BET 4pts win AZURE GLAMOUR (3.10 Newcastle)
BET 5.7pts win MONTOYA‘S SON and 1.5pts win and place GLEANN NA NDOCHAIS (3.40 Newcastle)
BET 4.5pts win LE FIN BOIS and 3pts win MR BURBIDGE (3.55 Wetherby)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 10pts win PEARL CASTLE and (win 20) 4.4pts win DARK DUNE (4.15 Newcastle)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SHANTOU VILLAGE (4.30 Wetherby)
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