517 POINTS LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman scored a 2-0 win over Pricewise at Kempton Park yesterday, with Ar Mad (WON 5-2) and a bull’s-eye bet on The Last Samurai (WON 9-2) to take his lead to 16-4 (totals 262-99 to Daqman overall in two years). Daqman is 92 points in profit to 20-point level stakes this Jumps season, with Pricewise showing a loss of 425 points.
16-4 UP AFTER KEMPTON DOUBLE: From four winning bets, including a Daq Multiples double, Ar Mad with The Last Samurai, Daqman made a profit on the day of 68 points. For the last week in 2015, and the start of a New Year, Daqman’s sequences are:
Naps: Five out eight (24 for the season)
Naps profit: 396 Points (20-point stakes)
Bankers: Five out of eight
Lays: Six out of seven (34 out of 38)
Daqman 16, Pricewise 4 (overall 262-99)
NOW DAQMAN LUMPS ON LEXUS BANKER: Daqman posts a gold banker in his renewed clash with Pricewise in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown this afternoon, and he takes a 16-1 ante-post bet on the World Hurdle at Cheltenham about one of the runners in the Christmas Hurdle.
SEVEN-RACE BETDAQ CARD TOMORROW
TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s analysis of the seven-race BETDAQ-sponsored card at Doncaster. He’s had nine winning bets, then a fabulous14, in two of the last three Betdaq meetings from win, place and lay on each race..
WEDNESDAY: Haydock appropriately features The Last Fling Chase but the ground is officially heavy already, and the executive is holding an inspection.
THURSDAY: Inspections are also likely for Warwick and Uttoxeter on Thursday, with ‘heavy’ currently figuring in the weather forecasts.
FRIDAY: New Year’s Day racing at Cheltenham features the Relkeel Hurdle, which two years ago threw up the subsequent World Hurdle winner, More Of That.
LIZZIE CAN PLAY UP ON ITALIAN JOB
2.00 Leicester (Silver Fox Chase) The Italian Yob is a once-a-year winner at best but Lizzie Kelly has been booked by the stable for whom she won the Feltham on Boxing Day, first win in a top chase in Britain for a lady rider. I take her to play up the winnings here.
Noble Legend has put back-to-back wins together before and, even with the 7lb penalty, is lower than for his last success, but all that was back in 2013.
Valadom has been aimed high and will be more comfortable in this company but success has come only on a sound surface.
Neither Smart Catch nor Moorlands Jack has ever been able to hack it higher than class 4. Great Link (3.75 offers on BETDAQ early mouse) should be fitter than for his first run back at Aintree and may be the main danger to Tne Italian Yob (I took 5.4 as a first position).
2.10 Catterick With Verko up in weight and up in trip, I’m looking elsewhere. Best handicapped horses here are Swing Hard and Whats Up Woody.
It’s a question of catching each one on the day he puts it together. Today it’s more likely to go the way of Swing Hard (10.5 offers on BETDAQ), with his stable in such good form.
Gonalston Cloud, five out of six in Points, was not much of a hurdler but may improve switched to fences. Drumlister seldom runs a bad race, though his bridesmaid form of 232 suggests he’s short of pace.
3.40 Leicester There were 14 lengths back to the third horse home when Prairie Town was the moral a week ago at Lingfield, beaten a neck giving 11lb to the winner of 10 races.
Prairie Town, 5.9 on BETDAQ as I write, had earlier won at Sandown, so will have no trouble with the hills and dales of Oadby Park.
Trade-paper-favourite Blackfire is only three and making his English debut, without a win in France. He was nowhere near his paper forecast at 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Fair Loch is not penalised for winning a claimer at Huntingdon but climbs two grades here and success this autumn came on sounder surfaces.
Hill Fort is raised 16lb for running away from a race of slow maidens at Ludlow. Tara Flow dealt with novices in a similar way at Worcester, and has that ‘could be anything’ look.
16-1 TOWER TILT AT THE WORLD
1.55 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle) Irish SPs can be heavily loaded in the bookmakers’ favour. So it was a Christmas bonus to wake up to 100-101% lists in the orange for both the Christmas Hurdle and the Lexus Chase this morning.
According to the Racing Post, yesterday’s PP Chase at Leopardstown had a total SP of 158%, and the hurdles handicap won by Copy That 128%. You copy?
Arctic Fire is the obvious choice in this Christmas Hurdle. He’s the nearly horse you can hardly call a bridesmaid, since his sequence of 2233222, still standing, was largely against Hurricane Fly and Faugheen.
And he emerged from the shadows of giants for back-to-back wins in November, which culminated in the Hattons Grace, when he outpaced Apha Des Obeaux over 20 furlongs.
But today’s 3m has never before been attempted, and it’s also his first race on heavy ground under Rules.
Alpha might better him, though I think it doubtful; he has similar bridesmaid form figures (2222) in slightly lesser company, and the one I want to be on is Martello Tower.
This is a much underrated horse, in fact officially 20lb behind Arctic Fire, though his 3lb in arrears of Alpha Des Obeaux tells a truer tale.
We haven’t seen Martello Tower since he took the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham in March but he’s won first time for the last two seasons, is a genuine three-miler of power and courage, and may have his day here.
The BETDAQ market for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle is top heavy with the burgeoning Thistlecraft clear at 3.55, as is Ladbrokes own at an even shorter 5-2.
Never be afraid of one horse – particularly with more than 10 weeks to go – and I shall step up for the mouth-watering 16-1 Ladbrokes’ offer about Martello Tower.
If he wins, or goes close today, we’re sure to be able to do a trade on BETDAQ, and at least end up with a free bet.
POLI TRACK TO CHELTENHAM GOLD
3.05 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase) Those hot Cheltenham favourites have had mixed results over Christmas. The ones I went for – Un De Sceaux and Don Cossack – both came unstuck. Murphy’s law!
That’s why (I hope you’ve noticed) I always try to vary my bets and aim for an overall profit on the day.
The Lexus is a race of riches, names steeped in history: Beef Or Salmon, Denman, Synchronised, Bobs Worth. All bar one of the winners in the last nine years were aged seven or eight, one of them nine.
It would seem that First Lieutenant (just one win since 2011) and On His Own (rating dropped 7lb for poor recent form) are just making up the numbers but you can never be sure on heavy ground.
Carlingford Lough pipped Foxrock in the Leopardstown Hennessy in February, but the going may be too deep for Carlingford and Foxrock is blinkered first time after three consecutive bad runs.
The 2013 Hennessy went to Sir Des Champs, who bounced back at Thurles in November. He’s often done well after a break (though injury is a different matter) and usually improves as the season goes on.
But, after all these ifs and buts, forgiveness and mere hopes, leading Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate Don Poli stands out here, shining 20lb above the lowest rated in the race. Surely I can’t put the mockers on him, too, with a gold banker!
DAQMAN BETS (each one staked to win 20 points, except banker at SP, and ton-up ante-post bet)
BET 6pts win MARTELLO TOWER (1.55 Leopardstown)
BET 7pts win GREAT LINK and 4.5pts win THE ITALIAN YOB (2.00 Leicester)
BET 2pts win and place SWING HARD (2.10 Catterick)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) DON POLI (3.05 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win PRAIRIE TOWN and 2pts win (stakes saver) TARA FLOW (3.40 Leicester)
WORLD HURDLE ANTE-POST TON-UP BET (to win 100): 6.25pts win MARTELLO TOWER at 16-1 with Ladbrokes (Cheltenham, March)
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