GRAND NATIONAL COUNTDOWN: THE MODERN RED RUM? It’s Grand National week and Daqman goes down memory lane with a purpose: what happens to National winners; can they be followed? Can the modern winner like Tiger Roll do a Red Rum? He will also ask: what is the truth about the weights; how should the handicapper affect your bets? But that’s for tomorrow.
SPOTTING THE STABLES SURE TO DO WELL AT AINTREE: Trainers are creatures of habit and Daqman will be researching the stables that do well in Aintree week. What else could he do after the success of Early Bird Trainers at Doncaster! Three winners on Saturday were followed by three more yesterday – Stonific (WON 14-1), Right Action (WON 7-1), Fox Champion (WON 9-4) – and places at 10-1 and 20-1.
THE TIGER HAS HISTORY TO BEAT
Sat in the TV theatre at the Australian embassy. The entire audience of about 40, including their Prime Minister, chanting for their nation’s hero: Crisp, Crisp, Crisp!
Little old me, a raw recruit to national journalism, occasionally dared to whisper: ‘Come on Red Rum!’
Only one left standing at the finish of the Grand National: ME! Crisp, 15 lengths clear at the last, succumbed on the run-in, well beaten, which is what I feared for myself, as I stood cheering and ‘riding’ the last 50 yards harder than jockey Brian Fletcher, but mindful of the muted Aussies around me (‘your round mate,’ was now the only cry left on their lips)!
Will there be another Red Rum, who won the race three times? Tiger Roll has a long way to go but L’Escargot already came close as National winner, National second and third and, at the time, the only dual Gold Cup winner after Golden Miller.
The so-called ‘easier’ race now, with modified fences, should produce back-to-back winners sometime or other, shouldn’t it? In fact, the toll on the strength of those successful has not changed.
Here, cataloguing the winners’ subsequent results this century, we see that only Bindaree and Many Clouds were tough enough to train on and win more big chases. Before Tiger Roll that is.
2000 PAPILLON did win a three-runner 2m 1f chase but was then beaten 10 times, fourth in the 2001 National.
2001 RED MARAUDER had just one run in a hurdle race (fourth)
2002 BINDAREE had 16 more races, winning the Coral Welsh National but failed in three more consecutive Aintree versions.
2003 MONTY’S PASS 10 consecutive defeats, fourth in 2004 National, and finished way back the following year
2004 AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 12 consecutive defeats, the next two Nationals among them.
2005 HEDGEHUNTER was beaten 13 times; second, ninth and 13th in subsequent Grand Nationals.
2006 NUMBERSIXVALVERDE lost four times afterwards, including another try at the Grand National
2007 SILVER BIRCH nine defeats afterwards including the Grand National but won a point-to-point.
2008 COMPLY OR DIE second the following year but never won again in 11 attempts.
2009 MON MOME never won again in 18 tries, including fell and pulled up in two more Grand Nationals
2010 DON’T PUSH IT had six more starts including third in the National the following year. No wins.
2011 BALLABRIGGS sixth and pulled up National in six races after his win. Also drew a blank.
2012 NEPTUNE COLLONGES never raced again
2013 AURORAS ENCORE was unplaced three times then quit.
2014 PINEAU DE RE won a hurdle race from 13 subsequent starts
2015 MANY CLOUDS the only winner to score again in a big chase over fences after Bindaree and before Tiger Roll; in fact three out of seven.
2016 RULE THE WORLD unplaced at Punchestown three weeks later and retired.
2017 ONE FOR ARTHUR unseated rider in both of two starts since.
2018 TIGER ROLL (pictured) won a hurdle race at 25-1 and last month sensationally stormed clear in the cross-country at Cheltenham that he’d won the year before.
I’M AVAILABLE TO NAP IN NATIONAL WEEK
No Ayr today with the track deemed unfit for racing, so it’s the calm before the storm on Grand National week with racing from Chelmsford, Ludlow and Newcastle.
I have one bet from each venue on Monday.
4.10 Chelmsford Class 4 is as good as it gets today but this mile event looks very competitive and above average for the course.
Andrew Balding is in such good form (7 winners from 21 runners over the past two weeks) that I have to side with I’m Available.
She has the considerable advantage of Oisin Murphy in the saddle and has improved on each of her three starts – the latest of which brought about a first win over this trip where she stayed on well and had plenty in hand – getting them well strung out in behind.
There should be more to come and a starting handicap mark of 74 doesn’t look too onerous.
Obvious danger is the Ed Dunlop trained Maqaadeer who ran well when second on his all-weather debut at Lingfield.
Mark Johnston’s horses may have just gone off the boil. There was a huge gamble on Matterhorn at Kempton on Saturday that went astray and his Mustadun may struggle off top weight here having finished second over the seven furlongs here last time out in a four runner contest.
5.30 Ludlow A dilemma for punters here. Would you want to be taking short odds about the Nicky Henderson trained Dieu Benisse who has fallen on both her starts over hurdles?
She looked held on her UK debut at Wincanton when coming down at the last and then suffered the same fate here at Ludlow last time out when coming down at the second last.
I can’t be taking short odds about her, not knowing how much it’s impacted her confidence so will side with Darling Du Large whose form, whilst not spectacular, is at least consistent and that just might be all that’s needed here.
8.15 Newcastle (Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Handicap) Small fields and short priced favourites earlier on the Newcastle card but the finale looks a lot more competitive.
Klopp is developing seconditis (will that also be the fate of namesake Jürgen Klopp this season?) and preference is for Magical Spirit who looked a nice prospect last season and the type to now do well in handicaps. This is his first start since being gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 11.2pts win (nap) I’M AVAILABLE (4.10 Chelmsford)
BET 10pts win DARLING DU LARGE (5.30 Ludlow)
BET 6.0pts win MAGICAL SPIRIT (8.15 Newcastle)
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