TRYING TO SPOT BIG ODDS FOR BIG RACES: Daqman yesterday tried to start a ‘book’ of ante-post bets on the Arc, adding 22.0 to a 10.0 first BETDAQ position. Today he delves into the Cambridgeshire lists and finds a Ladbrokes’ 33-1 shot. Tomorrow in time for Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup, he reveals the man who has won three recent runnings of the race at 25-1 and 20-1 (twice) on BETDAQ.
THE NAP IS AT CARLISLE: Our Lord (WON 7-2) kept Daqman in profit yesterday. Today he naps at Carlisle in a race where he believes the best strategy is keeping things simple.
THE 33-1 CAMBRIDGESHIRE ORDER
The law of ante-post betting. It’s simple really. You must have odds which are greater than they will be on the day. Then, if you are dealing with one horse, you can trade off some or all of the bet with a lay.
You could be concerned not just with one horse but with the entire race, trying to work an overall underround by getting as many ‘overs’ as you can, as we’re doing on the Arc (bets so far: 22.0 Capri, 10.0 Cracksman, both on BETDAQ).
Did I say simple! It’s a matter of timing and luck, and we had both when we got 25-1 Enable for the Oaks on BETDAQ. The results of races are paramount, like the Irish Derby one-two and the subsequent St Leger winner it threw up. One or both should be involved in the Arc finish.
With the Cambridgeshire I always get a position on a trainer who targets the race, with the horse in question currently showing in the first 50 listed for the race.
I so far have ticked 25-1 Linguistic, one of three left in by John Gosden, who has had two Cambridgeshire winners and a second among five from the yard which would have paid out for a place in the last eight years.
Additionally, I think Ladbrokes’ 33-1 Law And Order is too big and could be added to your ‘book’ if Cambridgeshire confidence is declared by default this week.
It’s like this. Before you try to take Ladbrokes’ money, check whether Law And Order is among the declared runners for the Doonside Cup (Listed) at Ayr on Thursday or the Duty Free Handicap at Newbury on Saturday.
The Lawman colt was reckoned a Guineas and Dante horse at the start of the year but fluffed his lines behind Churchill at Newmarket.
He was back to form with a decent run in the Group-3 September Stakes last week, which suggested that he would swerve this week’s venues in favour of the Cambridgeshire. Any definite runner at too big a price is an ante-post bet.
Tomorrow: When should you bet on Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup? The answer is clear. Wait until BETDAQ offers on the day. But do you really win at 25-1 and 20-1 (twice)? You and I both know a man who does.
STUFF OF DREAMS AT HEAVY CARLISLE
One of the easiest traps for punters to fall into is over complicating things. The condition is worse than ever thanks, in part, to the weight of information at their disposal – just about every fact, figure and stat available at a keystroke.
It wasn’t better in the ‘old days’, far from it, but there were less pieces of the punting jigsaw to consider and nowadays it’s far too easy to talk yourself out of a winner.
A case in point is the 3.20 at Carlisle this afternoon. I’m keeping it simple with finding a proven heavy ground performer who will hopefully relish this stamina test of seven furlongs for two-year-olds up the Carlisle hill.
Look no further than Book Of Dreams who made a winning debut on heavy ground at Nottingham and then stayed on strongly over seven furlongs at Beverley last time out to finish a five length second to Alfa McGuire – but pulled four lengths clear of the third on vastly different good to firm ground.
The ground and trip should be perfect which might not be the case (on what we know already) for some of his rivals. He needs to have quite a bit up his sleeve as he has a winners penalty to defy.
Principal market rival Spray The Sea started on the all-weather and his two subsequent placed efforts have come on good to firm ground.
The Kevin Ryan trained Divine Intuition is another unproven on ground and trip in his two previous starts when trained by Richard Hannon.
Of the Richard Fahey trained pair the once raced Southpark is proving stronger in the BETDAQ market than debutant Ocean Voyage who is friendless so far.
Book Of Dreams is a solid favourite and I’m keeping it simple. I can’t find reasons to over-complicate and he rates the Monday nap at around 2.96 on BETDAQ.
Elsewhere it looks a day of few punting opportunities:
3.45 Brighton – Eight race card at Brighton and seven of them handicaps and tricky ones at that. Shame there can’t be more variety.
At nine, Whitecrest is the oldest in this six furlong sprint but the mare is knocking on the door for another win, however she was beaten over course and distance in a class 5 last time out so faces a harder task today.
A better option might be Ladweb who has been competing at a much higher level (last three races at Goodwood, Newbury and Ascot) and has received a welcome 3lb drop from the handicapper. He goes well at Brighton and faces largely out of form rivals.
5.05 Worcester Banditry returns to the jumps after a good season on the flat but looks a little skinny for a horse who I still think might have his stamina limitations exposed, even over the minimum two miles.
Amanto sets a fair standard and ran well over course and distance two starts ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20)
BET 10.2pts win (nap) BOOK OF DREAMS (3.20 Carlisle)
BET 5.1pts win LADWEB (3.45 Brighton)
BET 2.5pts win AMANTO (5.05 Worcester)
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