JUMPS: DAQMAN ONE FOR THE 50: A late spurt this weekend by Pricewise, but no chance of catching Daqman, who needs one for the 50 on the last day of records for feature-race value in the National Hunt season. Yes, it’s Fairyhouse Grand National day!
300 TARGET MOVES TO AINTREE: The Easter scores are 9-5. The season stands at Daqman 49, Pricewise 20. The overall totals are 295-116. So the 300 target Daqman set for Royal Ascot looks like going at Doncaster or Aintree! Daqman’s other sequence bets stand at:
Bankers 1111112
Lays 1111
FLAT SEASON CREEPS IN AT REDCAR: The English Flat season officially starts at Redcar today, with the Lincoln Handicap coming up at Doncaster on Saturday. Daqman’s schedule is:
TOMORROW: NH season review
WEDNESDAY: Early Birds for the Flat
THURSDAY: Lincoln ABC analysis
FRIDAY: Betting guide for the new season
SATURDAY: Win-100-points Lincoln Day special
FINAL FLING: THE FAIRYHOUSE ANGEL AT 34.0
5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National) Not a big horse; not sure to keep pace with the front end; not sure even to get a run in the race. We’re talking about the Aintree Grand National, not this one.
But there are negatives, too, for today’s marathon about the horse in question, Cause Of Causes, who has switched from Liverpool to Fairyhouse.
In the last decade only two top-weights have even completed the course! And he would be only the third since Brown Lad (1978) – after Desert Orchid and Flashing Steel – to carry his weight to victory.
His Kim Muir demolition job at Cheltenham was only 11 days ago, and could have left its mark. It certainly left the handicapper’s mark: a hike of 12lb.
Whether he would have got in at Liverpool off an unchanged 142 for the National (currently number 57 on the card), we won’t know until nearer the time.
I would have been asking him for a third consecutive killing, after the NH Chase last year (this column, WON 44.0 on BETDAQ) and another ante-post Cheltenham punt in the Kim Muir (WON 11.0 on BETDAQ).
What helps you win at Fairyhouse is a win at Fairyhouse.
Success on a right-handed track is helpful which points to: Bonny Kate (6 wins), Folsom Blue (4), My Murphy and Tulsa Jack (4 each)
Bless The Wings and Thunder And Roses (last year’s winner) have done even better, both winning over course and distance, and Cause Of Causes trainer has Ruby Walsh on Bless The Wings.
Other course winners that have also won at 3m in their careers are Bonny Kate, and the Thyestes one-two My Murphy and Mala Beach.
Bonny Kate won from the front here at Fairyhouse in November and then she took the Grand National Trial at Punchestown in similar style at just short of today’s trip.
The further they went, the further she won, and I wouldn’t bet on the place horses, Baie Des Iles and Folsom Blue, turning over the result.
Trainers in form must surely be headed by Kerry Lee, with Warwick Classic winner Russe Blanc. She can can do no wrong with her staying chasers and won yesterday’s Gold Cup with Kylemore Lough.
Venitien De Mai pulled right away from Midlands Grand National winner Goonyella in the Leinster National earlier this month.
Past results suggest that a horse aged six, seven or eight, and carrying 10st 6lb or less (7 out of 10) is what you want to be on. In the last eight years, 34 of the 36 placed horses were rated 128 to 142.
Whatever happens to his Cause Of Causes, Gordon Elliott has managed to place five horses of that age group in that weights zone!
Tulsa Jack, brought back recently after a break since a prolific autumn campaign, in which he won the Cork Grand National by 12 lengths, should jump better on the sounder surface.
Another Hero has also waited for the better ground. He is still a novice but they’ve accounted for five out of 10 winners in the decade, although you’d usually want four to eight starts over fences; Another Hero has had two.
Rogue Angel is a resolute horse and Mouse Morris has been back to form in the last few days. Living Next Door was slammed 15lb for winning the PP Chase.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN (with BETDAQ offers at the time of writing): 1 Bonny Kate (9.0), 2 Venitien De Mai (10.5), 3 Rogue Angel (34.0), 4 Sub Lieutenant (22.0), 5 Bless The Wings (17.5), 6 Cause Of Causes (17.0), 7 Russe Blanc (34.0).
AMIDON FROM YARD WITH 41% STRIKE RATE
CHEPSTOW Kayf Moss (4.40) looks vulnerable for the appalling course form of his trainer, John Flint, who has drawn a blank from 31 runners at Chepstow over the last six years exactly.
His hope, Kayf Moss, ran second at Ffos Las to Borea Boru but Boru’s Chepstow win was in class 4 off a 12lb lower mark.
It all goes to devalue the form and suggest that class-2 winner Chase The Spud, also runner-up in class-3 before that, might just take it at 5.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
His only poor run in the autumn-winter (it’s supposed to be Spring, you know) was in the Welsh Grand National. Forgive him that, and he is big value.
FAKENHAM Lucy Wadham has run more horses than any other trainer at Fakenham (66 in five seasons) yet has a 27% overall record, a quite incredible 41% with her chasers.
Amidon (3.4 on BETDAQ as I write) already has a verdict for her against Bucking The Trend over today’s CD, giving him weight.
MARKET RASEN Phare Isle, a big 7.6 in the BETDAQ orange, goes for a repeat in this race, 2lb lower than when he scored by 12 lengths in last season.
The favourite, Shinooki has never won going right-handed (his five wins have come on anti-clockwise tracks), and he has to overcome a 10lb rise for winning at Catterick.
Road To Freedom is very hard to win with (1-17) and Milly Baloo has contrived to get beaten into second in three consecutive races on today’s course.
HAVE A HEART! THE TURF SEASON’S HERE..
REDCAR We have another edge on the Flat that we didn’t have over the jumps: the draw.
In both 4.55 and 5.10 today – a split of the same 7f handicap – the high half of the draw invariably contains the winner.
So we’ll go up to the first-day Flat (turf) oche and try to start the 2016 game with a double.
Shamaheart (9.8 on BETDAQ this morning in t he 4.55) was third in a big field (no split that time) for this race last season, drawn six of 19, and was unlucky to get the one stall on two subsequent visits to today’s course. Comes out of 11 today.
Coincidentally, his stablemate Cabal gets the same stall 11 in the next (5.30) but the one I like there is Uncle Dermot – an 8.8. offer – a soft-ground lover for for a stable in form.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET3pts win PHARE ISLE (1.50 Market Rasen)
BET 8pts win (nap) AMIDON (4.00 Fakenham)
LAY to lose 5pts KAYF MOSS and BET 5pts win CHASE THE SPUD (4.40 Chepstow)
BET 2.2pts win SHAMAHEART (4.55 Redcar)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 6.25pts win BONNY KATE, 5.2pts win VENITIEN DE MAI, and 1.4pts win and place ROGUE ANGEL (5.00 Fairyhouse)
BET 2.5pts win UNCLE DERMOT (5.30 Redcar)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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