‘MARVELLOUS’ NAPS DOUBLE UP: Daqman landed FIVE winners yesterday, including two naps, one for the Flat, Tis Marvellous (WON 3-1), which won the big two-year-old race in France, and one for the Jumps, a banker, Ablazing (WON 11-8) at Uttoxeter last night.
96 POINTS PROFIT ON THE DAY: His winners included three winning doubles and a treble, and he landed NINE winning bets all told for a profit on the day of 96 points. Results in time order were:
WON 4-6 Phijee (doubles and treble)
WON 3-1 Tis Marvellous (Flat nap)
WON 5-6 Convey (saver)
3rd 6-1 Master Carpenter (place)
WON 4-1 His Kyllachy
2nd 2-1 Apres Midi (11-1 forecast)
WON 11-8 Ablazing (Jumps banker nap)
TODAY: Missing strike. Losing favourites. Short-priced winners. Is this really the trainer you want to follow at the Galway Festival?
YOU HAVE TO PAY TO FOLLOW WELD
Does a Derby winner blunt his appetite? The stats say that Dermot Weld gets a hatful of winners at Ballybrit every year as regular as clockwork.
This is the year of a Derby double for Weld, Harzand winning both Epsom and Curragh blue ribands, but his hunger for Galway winners seems undiminished.
Some 49 entries – one only for the Galway Plate – suggest that he’s ready to hatch more plots this week at the week-long festival.
But punters should know that, to earn the corn and reap his winners, they also face a harvest of weeds. They have to accept the losers, as well.
Day 5 last year was a bitter Saturday with three consecutive losing Weld favourites all finishing second: at 10-11, then 5-2 and in the last race 9-10.
There were six more seconds during the week at 11-8, 9-4, 2-1, 6-5, 13-8 (twice), and the Weld winners through festival week showed SPs of only 6-4, 9-4, 5-4, 10-11, 1-3.
Missing strike. Losing favourites. Short-priced winners. Is Weld really the man to follow or the trainer to lay?
His worst misses at Galway last year were in Jumps races but his NH Flat race successes have ranged between 25% and 33% each season.
On the Flat this year, he’s well up to speed (usual strike rate 19-20%) though not as strong as the magic 2014 output of 91 winners at a remarkable 23%.
7.50 Galway On a quiet opening day to the festival, I fancy Motherland to start Joseph O’Brien’s first Galway with a winner.
Trotted up at Ballinrobe, and the Galileo colt seems to have been let in lightly off only 87 in his first handicap, with Donnacha O’Brien reducing his actual weight.
Let’s hope he’s looking over his shoulder at Baliyka. You really have to trust the trainer of this one, as he’s stepped up in trip. What does that trainer know that we don’t? His name is Dermot Weld.
FOUR GOODWOOD FORTUNE COOKIES
FORTUNE COOKIES: There is no change to the Fortune Cookies’ stable, with potential runners:
– 3 Awtaad (Kevin Prendergast) Sussex Stakes, Goodwood, Wednesday
220 Cotai Glory (Charles Hills) King George Stakes, Goodwood, Friday
–2 Easton Angel (Michael Dods), King George Stakes, Goodwood, Friday
211 Minding (Aidan O’Brien), Nassau Stakes, Goodwood, Saturday
TWO-YEAR-OLDS: As I reported yesterday, we are adding Fair Eva to the list. Tis Marvellous should also pay to follow. That brings up the 10.
None are engaged this week, so a full update on both Fortune Cookies and Two-Year-Olds will follow Goodwood.
HAVE TO PICK A POCKET OR TWO
Away from Galway there are four other meetings and incredibly the ground at Ayr is soft and HEAVY in places !!
2.00 Ayr Heir of Excitement looks the value here against the two sexy horses with the ‘1’ form figures. We know Heir of Excitement is proven over this stamina test for the two-year-olds and on the ground as he is a course and distance winner. 14 days ago he ploughed through the mud here to win his maiden.
When the ground is soft I like a two-year-old who has a bit of experience and I fancy Heir of Excitement can overcome the penalty.
Permian scrambled home by a nose on debut at Kempton and Proud Archi won on good ground at Beverley. Both will face completely different conditions today and whilst that’s not to say they won’t handle it – we don’t have to make that guess with Heir of Excitement who is a tempting 5.5 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
6.25 Windsor Paul Cole is amongst the winners again and can land the 6.25 at Windsor with Mr Pocket. He looked a surefire future winner when a close second on debut here two weeks ago and he was nibbled at in the market beforehand. The front three put decent ground between themselves and the rest of the field and with normal improvement Mr Pocket should shine tonight over the longer trip.
7.40 Wolverhampton Yasir may make a bold bid for the hat-trick but there’s a danger lurking in the shape of Kissy Suzuki who unseated rider in the closing stages of the race won by Yasir here in June. There wasn’t much between them in the closing stages and the handicapper has given Kissy Suzuki a real chance by dropping her 3lb and there’s also a more experienced apprentice onboard tonight.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
Bet 5pts win HEIR OF EXCITEMENT (2.00 Ayr)
Bet 7pts win (NAP) MR POCKET (6.25 Windsor)
Bet 5pts win KISSY SUZUKI (7.40 Wolverhampton)
Bet 6pts win MOTHERLAND (7.50 Galway)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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