THREE WINNING NAPS OUT OF FOUR: Daqman’s on a double sequence: he’s had five winning lays in a row and Arvika Ligeonniere yesterday was his third winning nap from the last four:
WON 9-4 SILVINIACO CONTI
WON 6-4 JOSSES HILL
2nd 11-8 AT FISHERS CROSS
WON 1-2 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE
A ‘FAIRY’ TALE FOUR FROM FIVE: Fairyhouse yesterday was the latest venue for a hatful of winning bets, four in five races, including the place return from yet another daring outsider, Double Irish (3rd 14-1).
NOW IT’S 15 BETS UP IN FOUR DAYS: He reached 15 winning bets since Thursday, thanks to Lieutenant Colonel (WON 5-1), Adriana Des Mottes (WON 15-8) and the banker, ‘Arvika’, for just under 30 points profit on the day.
LOOK OUT THIS WEEK
TOMORROW: CLASSIC TRIALS COUNTDOWN
WEDNESDAY: BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON
THURSDAY: SCOTTISH NATIONAL ABC GUIDE
It’s not easy settling in. Moving ‘house’ from National Hunt to Flat requires a different approach, a new mind-set. Jumps fans don’t have to let go altogether, with Scottish and Irish Nationals, then Punchestown, still to come.
And Flat punters have – or should have – their golden rules, which I’ve chewed over in a recent column, so that they don’t burn their fingers early on:
- Wait for handicappers to have had two runs, unless they go particularly well fresh or their stables are having a flow of winners.
- Don’t bet in three-year-old Classic trials or in three-year-old handicaps until the form has settled down. I hope my horses to follow (more about them later in the week) will help us find big ante-post bets for Guineas and Derbys.
- Follow early-bird stables and Springtime horses. I can give you three dates for those I listed: April 14, Carragold; May 14 Es Que Love and Music Master.
2.10 Windsor There are punters who live off the Hannon two-year-old winners and, since the yard had 135 of them last season, that’s a pretty good living!
The Hannons are 101101 in this race, so here we go again on the Magical Roundabout, the first of another East Everleigh ton at least.
2.20 Redcar Michael Dods does well at this meeting. He won the opener last year with his first two-year-old runner and Reet Petite (2.20) will be his first this year: 32.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Bill Turner, who usually gets a flyer with juveniles, had Paddy Again second in the Brocklesby (Penalty Scorer behind), and the form has already been franked by success for the third horse home.
3.10 Windsor Ogbourne Downs and Ain’t Got A Scooby both won first time out on turf last season. Since Clive Cox’s first runners have been long-pricesd losers, I’ll go for that Hills hope called Downs, unbeaten in two visits to Windsor.
3.50 Redcar Justonefortheroad dropped 15lb last year. Likes cut in the ground and started the 2012 season with a double. Trainer Richard Fahey won three on the opening cards at Doncaster, where Justonefortheroad had his first run back.
Snow Bay won second time out last season and has also had a run back, finishing last of all but that was on AW. Should be straighter for it.
Capaill Liath was fourth at Doncaster in the boys’ race but this mile is stretching it a bit for the 7f specialist, though he’s 9lb lower now than for his last turf success.
Save The Bees, on the other hand, needs further and his yard is in poor form, with five of its six recent starters last or nearly so in a sequence of big-field races.
Eric Alston’s already had a winner and Spavento, successful first time out last season, is within a couple of pounds of his last winning mark. Then there’s that man Dods again (Kiwi Bay).
The one for me is Knight Owl, with James Fanshawe off the mark last Wednesday with his very first Flat (AW) runner of the year, well backed.
3.40 Windsor and 4.20 Redcar Here are the dreaded three-year-old handicaps. Why so dreadful? Well, like the schoolboy’s 100 lines, we need to write over and over: ‘This year is this year; last year is last.’
It’s the punters’ law as two-year-olds reappear in the Classic season.
Some juveniles will repeat their ability from their first season: some will improve; but many will go into reverse in their second season. And you and I have no way of knowing, though the BETDAQ market might help.
5.20 Redcar Last year Mark Johnston (his runner was made favourite) and Tom Tate (he won it with another well backed) spotted that three-year-olds get a big allowance in this.
This time around, Johnston has primed Zanouska at Lingfield, and she may be too good for Marco Botti’s Rose Kazan, though the handicapper thinks Rose is 2lb better.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except in Daq Multiples)
BET 0.6pts win and place REET PETITE (2.20 Redcar)
BET 3.7pts win OGBOURNE DOWNS (3.10 Windsor)
BET 5.2pts win KNIGHT OWL (3.50 Redcar)
BET 7pts win ZANOUSKA and 1.45pts win (stakes saver) ROSE KAZAN (5.20 Redcar)
DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 10pts win on each MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT (nap, 2.10 Windsor) and PADDY AGAIN (2.20 Redcar) plus 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt acca the same two with OGBOURNE DOWNS (3.10 Windsor) and KNIGHT OWL (3.50 Redcar)
(Daqman’s win-20 value analysis is back on Friday)
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