BACK-TO-BACK 9-4 NAPS FOR DAQMAN: It was two naps from two, both at Kempton, both at the same SP, for Daqman when, after Taxiformissbyron (WON 9-4) on Wednesday, he scored with Holy Warrior (WON 9-4) yesterday.
54 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: He was also seeing double when he made it 27 points profit on the day for the second day running, opening his punting at Lingfield with Hipster (WON 5-1).
SPECIAL BETS ARE 72 POINTS UP: Daqman’s special bets are now showing a total profit for January of more than 72 points: the nap with 26.70; his jackpot bets on 17.40, his lays earning 20.00 and his horses to follow 8.30 up.
We’re on top of the World in this column. Sitting pretty we are, with ‘overs’ for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, after taking advantage of underround lists of offers on BETDAQ, twice dipping into orange markets of around 92% total probability.
First we were on Monksland at 11.0 (in to 9.0 this morning) and yesterday we also had the aptly-named Gowran Park afternoon winner in the mud, Bog Warrior, at 15.0 (this morning 10.0).
Early positions like this could be useful because it’s going to be harder than you think at Cheltenham come March 12th. The last five festivals have been run on ground no worse than good to soft, the most recent three (2010-12) all on a sound surface, without the word ‘soft’ in the returned going.
After the wettest few months on record, it’s a fair bet that the 2013 festival will be in fair weather if not in sunshine. It’s almost considered the norm these days to have the English ‘summer’ in March and April!
That won’t sit well with the Irish who race their horses largely on heavy ground and, in fact, recent Cheltenham trials on both sides of the Irish Sea have been run in mud.
Among the favourites, Jezki (Supreme Novices Hurdle), Simonsig (Arkle), Hurricane Fly (Champion Hurdle), Boston Bob (RSA) and Sprinter Sacre (Champion Chase) have all won their trials this season on soft-heavy ground.
Even if they have won on good in the past, what measure of improvement, or indeed deterioration, can we gauge for this season, since we have seen them only in deep terrain?
A worse worry for some ante-post punters concerns those horses which have never in their entire career won on a sound surface. How will they act if, as seems likely, Cheltenham is bone dry?
BACK IN FOCUS and BOSTON BOB (RSA Chase) Back In Focus has been beaten only three times, still standing: two of those defeats were on good ground; all his easy success, by four lengths and more, has been on soft-heavy.
Raceform noted after his win at Leopardstown (officially soft, but with half the field pulled up): Back In Focus relishes even more testing conditions and the ground at Cheltenham might well determine his chance in the RSA Chase.
Backers of ‘Focus’ for the festival should also be warned that the Leopardstown result was turned upside down recently when the head runner-up, Aupcharlie, was beaten by old-timer Tofino Bay (a great piece of tipping by BETDAQ’S Donn McLean), the same horse who’d finished only fourth in that Leopardstown race.
The third, Texas Jack, had been 31 lengths behind Arvika Ligeonniere at Fairyhouse. I suspect that things ain’t what they seem.
Boston Bob’s only defeat in nearly two years now was on good ground, when he was a very short price (6-5 favourite) for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival itself last March.
That defeat is surrounded on his CV by three straight wins on heavy and the post-mortem Cheltenham report is damning:
‘Had been most impressive in Ireland but under much more testing conditions, and didn’t travel with that much fluency here.’
CAPTAIN CONAN, FAGO and OSCARS WELL (Arkle) Fago is the new kid on the block for the Arkle – though the Jewson is also a possibility for this young novice – after he impressed on the soft at Newbury earlier this month.
But he had plenty of experience chasing in France. He was bought from the Guillaume Macaire academy after impressing on the ‘very soft’ and ‘heavy’ surfaces in the Pau region and at Auteuil. His sire’s progeny has won races only on soft.
However, the dam’s sire, Villez, got the Champion Chase winner Voy Por Ustedes, who was not ground dependent and won on the perfect turf of Aintree.
Captain Conan’s form on soft ground in England and Ireland is 11; on good 22. He’s a very big horse who just keeps galloping; a sound surface has found him out for speed in a finish.
Oscars Well’s form on heavy since his first success reads: 1121F1. On soft, not heavy: 13232. On good or good-to-soft ground: 404. That says it all.
MONKSLAND (World Hurdle) Like Boston Bob, Monksland’s only defeat last season was on good ground at Cheltenham. I’m so pleased Simonsig has switched to fences.
Those who have him ante-post for the World Hurdle at 11.0 on BETDAQ (he’s now 6-1 with one of the big bookmakers) thought he did enough behind Simonsig that day; in fact, might have been unlucky to get into a pocket before he could make his challenge. Simonsig is not a horse you can give distance away to!
Monksland has looked mighty impressive since his return in November, turning over Zaidpour on the soft at Leopardstown after that one beat him at Fairyhouse.
But there’s always that doubt about a sound surface until he’s shown positively that it is not a problem. And there’s not much now between Monksland and Bog Warrior, who also beat Zaidpour yesterday in the Thyestes Chase. That’s where I came in. Good punting.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win SECRET MILLIONAIRE (1.30 Lingfield)
BET 7.8pts win (nap) POLAR VENTURE (3.05 Lingfield)
BET 7pts win CREEK FALCON (5.00 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble the three above.
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points (so divide 20 by the stake to know the offer he took). Daq Multiples are separate.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
