9.2 ‘GOLDEN’ SHOT ON TARGET FOR DAQMAN AT 43-10: Daqman nailed a double of lays in Ireland and landed the big winner in France yesterday, describing as ‘fabulous’ the 9.2 BETDAQ offers about Golden Lilac (WON 43-10).
DOUBLE OF CURRAGH LAYS: He landed two 10-point lays in the first two races at The Curragh, when he opposed Letir Mor (2nd 9-4 favourite) and claimed that the Craven Stakes form of Crius (unplaced, 13-8 favourite) had been let down.
THREE WINNING DAYS OUT OF FOUR: It was his third winning day from the last four. Total profit over the four days: 169 points, as follows:
* PROFIT 25 points (Thursday): Beaufort Twelve (WON 15-2), Primaeval (WON 5-2), Golan Way (lay, unplaced 11-4 favourite)
* PROFIT 155 points (Friday): Amber Silk (WON 13-2), Watheeq (WON 6-1), Figaro (WON 2-1), Michelangelo (nap, WON 4-6).
* Loss 30 points (Saturday): Bated Breath (WON 2-1), Sea Moon (nap, WON 2-7).
* PROFIT 19 points (Sunday): Golden Shot (WON 43-10 from 9.2), Leitor Mor (lay, 2nd 9-4 favourite) and Crius (lay, unplaced 13-8 favourite)
The weekend Irish Classics have flung Derby and Oaks doors wide open. Camelot’s 2,000 Guineas took a battering on both days of the Curragh meeting, and the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas form was stood on its head yesterday.
While Newmarket raced on the soft, the Curragh Classics enjoyed good, fast ground: here’s how the form has unfolded, or rather ‘folded’:
Trumpet muted: Hermival and Trumpet Major, third and fourth to Camelot at Newmarket, were sixth and last of 10 respectively behind Power in Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas.
Fencing flop: Coupe De Ville, fifth at Newmarket, had finished only seventh of 12 in last Sunday’s French 2,000 Guineas.
Then the sixth and seventh at Newmarket, Fencing and Ptolemaic, were nearly five lengths and 15 lengths behind Bonfire in the Dante Stakes at York.
Crius crushed: Yesterday, the Trumpet Major form of his five-lengths Craven Stakes win was let down badly yet again when the runner-up, his stablemate Crius, was only sixth of eight, downgraded to the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes.
Queen dethroned: Some 90 minutes later, the nine-lengths Newmarket 1,000 Guineas heroine, Homecoming Queen, tried to make all again but abdicated a furlong out and finished seven lengths off the winner, fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
As some indication of the turn-around because of the ground, the winner yesterday, Samitar, had finished only ninth in the French 1,000 Guineas and the third filly home, Princess Sinead, had been last of 10 in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial on the soft.
I say ‘turn-around because of the ground’ – as I said yesterday, the mud has baked to a road – but that’s only part of the story.
Aidan O’Brien said after Homecoming Queen’s demise: ‘The ground was very different to what she raced on at Newmarket and she was never really happy on it.’
Stablemate Ishavan, who had finished six-lengths last of nine to Homecoming Queen in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, was second to Samitar yesterday.
But the topsy-turvy results we’ve seen so far this Classic season are, in fact, normal in circumstances, where a wet Spring leaves so many horses without adequate preparation or racing on the ‘wrong’ ground.
There will be more shocks to come and, at Epsom on Friday and Saturday, one or more of the Oaks, Coronation Cup and Derby, could be vulnerable to further huge form transformations.
Ballydoyle beat the weather with fantastic home preparation for Homecoming Queen and Camelot before our Guineas, leaving Power to effect just such a form transition from Newmarket to the Curragh.
The Racing Post says it is ‘relatively early days’ to be picking apart the 2,000 Guineas form. What! After eight losers and only one winner?
Can Camelot go on to stamp his class, where Homecoming Queen failed, or will trial-race losers, now switched from the soft to very fast ground on the Epsom gradients mute the mighty Epsom roar.
My diary this week, with the Derby countdown taking priority when I hear something, and have anything to tell, is as follows:-
Tuesday (Oaks ABC): ABC guide to Friday’s Oaks; stats revealing where the winner usually comes from; analysis of the form so far.
Wednesday (Derby ABC): ABC guide to the Derby, with a similar run-down of stats and what – if anything! – the trial races tell us.
Thursday (Fill your Epsom wallet): My Derby week form is under scrutiny. And I’m expected to give you winners at the big Sandown evening meeting. Maybe I’ll have an Epsom tip for an outsider by then.
Friday (The Oaks): The Oaks is here. I’ll be jackpotting the value bets in the big race, with this weekend’s upsets at the back of my mind.
Saturday (The Derby): Well, can Camelot shrug off that misleading form, the hollow sound of Trumpet Major and the others? I’m determined to crack this one. But my bet will be down to BETDAQ value, as ever.
The form may let you down but, with a long-term value strategy, BETDAQ never lets you down, as you see from my results.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.4pts win ROSSETTI (4.15 Kempton)
BET 5.4pts win CAPE CLASSIC (7.10 Windsor)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pt win double ARTIGIANO (2.30 Leicester) and MARKAB (nap, 7.40 Windsor)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated or in Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken for a win bet at the time of writing.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
