FRANKEL FLOPS ON FOUR COUNTS! There are ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics,’ according to Mark Twain. And four age and form stats for Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes say that Frankel, the 20-1 on favourite, is not in the picture! One thing is certain, this is a fresh attack on Frankel and, if he wins his 12th consecutive race, it will be his finest hour.
ABC AND THE X FACTOR: Here’s how the ABC of Sussex Stakes stats stack up against him: the damning ‘X’ marks his biggest task of all, to beat a record that goes back to 1878:
A: Three-year-olds are five out of seven; only one four-year-old has won in the last 13 years.
B: Best recent guide is to back the winner of the same year’s St James’s Palace Stakes or 2,000 Guineas in England or Ireland (three of the last four)
C: Eight out of the last 10 winners had won or been second at that year’s Royal Ascot meeting.
D: Eight out of 10 had won over a mile.
E: Seven out of 10 had won a Group 1
F: Nine out of 10 had had between three and five races in their winning year
X: No horse has landed back-to-back wins since the race’s inception in 1878.
Four-year-olds like Frankel have a bad Sussex Stakes record. Apart from a patch in the Nineties (1996-8), there have been only three other winners of that age group since 1974. From 26 four-year-old participants in the last decade, just one has scored.
The answer to that from his fans is: there haven’t been any four-year-olds like Frankel! A win on Wednesday would bring his 12th consecutive success.
The difference is that he faces a fresh attack, from top-quality horses he hasn’t met before, whereas most of his success has been against the same old, same old Excelebration, Dubawi Gold and co.
ABDEF Power: Top ABC marks go to Power, as winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but this is an in-and-out performer and one of his flops is another big negative on the stats: that he trailed in 12th of 16 in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
But he’d been last but one in the Newmarket Guineas before his Curragh Guineas victory, in which he looked a different colt, racing with authority.
We have no way of knowing which Power will be seen at Goodwood this week: the power Power or the power failure. But Irish Guineas winners have had three Sussex Stakes scorers from the last four starters.
ACF Ishvana Bids to be a Soviet Song, who put fillies on the map in this race, winning it and being second twice.
Ishvana looked flattered to run second in the Irish 1,000 Guineas off a rating of only 95 but proved it was no fluke, despite being unfancied at 20-1 for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
She held on tenaciously that day but maybe the drop back to 7f showed her in a better light. Officially she remained on the 108 rating awarded after the Curragh Guineas.
AF Gabrial Hiked from handicaps (winner off 91) by trainer Richard Fahey to tackle one of the best trials for this, the St James’s Palace Stakes.
You could argue that this race featured the pinnacle of the year’s Classic form, a rerun of the 2,000 Guineas without Camelot, and Gabrial was not disgraced in fifth, despite being a bit short of room and racing keenly.
Hermival, who finished second, was third to Camelot in the Guineas – beaten two and a half lengths – but note that he was subsequently four lengths behind Power in the Curragh equivalent.
The St James’s Palace winner was Most Improved, reckoned to have won or gone close in the Newmarket Classic, but unable to take on Camelot because of a minor injury near the time of the race.
AF Reply Failed by around four lengths in each of the Phoenix and Gimcrack two-year-old tests, and has won won only a sales race since. His best performance was as Irish 2,000 Guineas runner-up to Power, despite being unfancied at 25-1.
He was held up to get the mile that day but, dropped back to 7f, was more than three lengths behind Ishvana at Royal Ascot and, down to 6f, was stone last in the July Cup.
CDEX Frankel Took last year’s key races for the Sussex, the Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, and duly won it from Canford Cliffs, who retired injured after the race, so it was an unsatisfactory result.
Another blemish is that four of his 11 straight wins have seen Excelebration finish second, though he has increased his supremacy over that one from four lengths to five and finally did an 11-lengths demolition job on him in the Queen Anne.
Frankel looks awesome but does he really deserve world top ranking of 140? Wednesday’s race should tell us, since he now faces the form of the current Classic generation, and the cream of the older horses is represented by Farhh.
CDF Farhh Stepped up from handicap company to run third, stopped in his run, behind So You Think at Royal Ascot, and went on to a fight-of-the-year finish with Nathaniel in the Eclipse, going down narrowly.
Nathaniel franked the form when, attempting back-to-back wins in the King George, he was literally nosed out of it by the 2011 Arc winner, Danedream, in another special race.
Farhh can get upset before a race. It is to be hoped this does not stop him posing the threat to Frankel of the very best older-horse form on show this year.
In fact, it is somewhat absurd to see Nathaniel’s rating reduced – yes reduced – by 2lb this year, while Frankel’s is up 5lb for beating the same horse, Excelebration (who has been lopped a pound!)
D Bullet Train Eighth, fourth and sixth behind Frankel, pacemaking for Excelebration, and hasn’t won a race since the Lingfield Derby Trial of 2010.
– Strong Suit Unbeaten in three races at 7f since eclipsed by Frankel in the 2010 Greenham (last of six), including the Jersey Stakes and Goodwood’s Group-2 Lennox.
But failed in both attempts at a mile: third in last year’s Prix Jean Prat and a distant 10th of 11 to Frankel in the Queen Anne Stakes in June.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.3pts win and place FORREST FLYER (3.05 Ayr)
BET 2.4pts win RED BAY (3.50 Yarmouth)
BET 1pt win and place CRY FOR THE MOON (5.35 Galway)
BET 2.3pts win CALIFORNIA ROSE (6.10 Galway)
BET 1pt win and place BREAKHEART (6.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 1.8pts win and place PLEXOLINI (7.35 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pt win double MOCENIGO (nap, 3.30 Lingfield) and TRAIN OF THOUGHT (4.00 Galway)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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