AUTUMN GOLD OR FOOL’S GOLD? Daqman compares the offers between BETDAQ and the bookmakers on next month’s Cesarewitch, spotting the flaw in doing autumn doubles.
LOOK OUT FOR SATURDAY’S BIG-RACE ABC: Look out for his ABC guide to Saturday’s Cambridgeshire. His daily bets are at the foot of the column every day, all backed to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated.
Don’t be fooled by the autumn double. Bookmakers are offering prices on Saturday’s Cambridgeshire and the Cesarewitch later in the month. But beware of the many traps.
First of all, of course, there are instances galore where the bookies are short-changing you, setting prices which are far too short for value.
I have listed a dozen examples here, in which I compare BETDAQ offers for the Cesarewitch seen late last night with the Oddschecker list of bookmakers’ odds alongside me.
If, for instance, you were to back two horses with bookmakers for each leg of the double which were both 10 points under the Betdaq offer, you would have a deficit in the double of more than £1,000 at £10 stakes.
Finally, if you think about it, what’s the point of an ante-post double anyway? It’s Ok on the day, when you may have to place your bets at lunchtime and leave them to their fate, when you know you would be unlikely to change your selection during the afternoon, and conditions wouldn’t change either.
But, if there are weeks between the races, you face the prospect in the second leg of non-runners, a massive going change and, in some cases, a draw disadvantage which was not apparent, or not so marked, at the time you placed the bet.
One of the world’s top professionals, Murray Dwyer, once told me: ‘If you think about it, a double is two bets, in which you contract to put all your winnings from one horse on to another.
‘Do you really mean to do that? Why not wait until you have won the first leg and then, if you are still that brave, have your bet on the second horse.’
REPEATER (15.5 BETDAQ, 12-1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Hills) Sir Mark Prescott talking horse for the Cesarewitch after running just two lengths off the winner of a Group 2, the Doncaster Cup, in his first attempt at a marathon trip.
Disappointing favourite dropped back to 14f at Yarmouth recently but that came plenty soon enough after Donny and few observers think that his Ces chance was harmed.
LORDOFTHEHOUSE (16.0 BETDAQ, 12-1 Boylesport, Blue Square, 888) Lightly raced for William Haggas – just 10 runs in his life – this four-year-old completed a late summer and autumn hat-trick in his second season.
All three wins were on the soft but he stepped up to 2m for the first time on good to firm at Haydock in June and finished clear.
MOTIVADO (16.5 BETDAQ, 10-1 Boylesport, Coral, Paddy Power) Another for Sir Mark Prescott, this one looked the likely winner of the Ebor when scooting five lenfgths clear in his prep race at Goodwood.
Starting favourite at York, he was fourth, outgunned by Willing Foe’s dash to the line under a Frankie Dettori flourish.
Caught for foot that day, will Motivado now step up in trip for the Cesarewitch? The strength (or is it a lure?) in the fixed-odds markets say it will happen.
I HAVE A DREAM (17.0 BETDAQ, 10-1 Sky, Boylesport, Victor, Hills) If you believe a three-year-old can win the Cesarewitch, this could be the one, but it’s happened only once in the last 13 runnings of the race.
The Ballydoyle Galileo colt is also down for the Melbourne Cup after his giving top weight away, making most, in a premier handicap at Leopardstown recently.
COURTESY CALL (23.0 BETDAQ, 14-1 Sunderland, Ladbrokes) Another three-year-old, given a lot of racing by Mark Johnston, five handicaps in the last two months which has seen his status rise exactly a stone. In fact, his mark has shot up from 59 to 86 since the end of May.
Courtesy Call was bidding for his sixth win in eight starts on Saturday when only the well-handicapped Irish raider Domination could get past him in the Newmarket Cesarewitch Trial, earning him a break now surely until the day.
ALBERT BRIDGE (28.0 BETDAQ, 14-1 Sky, Ladbrokes) on breeding, he is no Cesarewitch type, but Ralph Beckett’s grey improved for stepping up in trip from 12f to 14f, running his best races with cut in the ground or even deeper and is unexposed after a light career.
CRY FOR THE MOON (41.0 BETDAQ, 20-1 Betfred, Victor) Staying on when runner-up in the Galway Plate (2m), giving weight to the winner.
DARK RANGER (50.0 BETDAQ, 20-1 Boylesport) Second in the Newmarket Cesarewitch trial last season, and fourth on Saturday off a stone higher mark, giving 11lb to the runner-up, Courtesy Call, after two months off the track. Stayed on well.
GASSIN GOLF (60.0 BETDAQ, 20-1 and 25-1 with bookmakers) Lightly raced, consistent at a lower level but stepped up to 2m, raised to class 2 at Goodwood, the Sir Mark Prescott three-year-old was in his element, weaving through late, tapping into obvious stamina reserves.
ALHELLAL (62.0 BETDAQ, 16-1 Boylesport, 20-1 elsewhere) Classically bred by the Aga Khan, he has been lightly raced on the Flat but at least managed to win the Ulster Derby.
BUY BACK BOB (64.0 BETDAQ, 20-1 and 25-1 with bookmakers) Perhaps his best day was when, hampered and unlucky, he ran second in a big field handicap at The Curragh Derby meeting in June (1m 4f soft). Tony Martin paid 140,000gns for him to go hurdling for owner Patsy Byrne
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double DANCHAI (3.10 Hamilton) and INTIBA (nap, 3.50 Kempton), plus 2pts win treble with INTRANSIGENT (4.20 Kempton)
BET 2.7pts win POOLE HARBOUR (4.20 Kempton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
