NAPS HAT-TRICK AS DAQMAN SPOTS CHELTENHAM STARS: Daqman made it three naps out of three at the big Cheltenham Open Meeting, every one at odds against. The naps are all now top orders for the Festival at the same venue in March:
* Friday: WON 7-4 Dynaste (new RSA Chase favourite)
* Saturday: WON 15-8 Far West (wins Triumph Hurdle trial)
* Sunday: WON 11-10 Captain Conan (wins Arkle Chase trial)
HOW TO WIN TWICE OVER: Daqman’s massive naps sequence has taken in Daq Value races during the last week (see his column again tomorrow). ‘Stick with those races and the winners earn a bonus,’ says our man. Every race at Leicester today was overround only 110% or less at 9.30 a.m.
HOW TO WIN IN THE LONG RUN: Follow the value races and follow Daqman’s sequence of naps (12 winning best bets out of 22) and you must win in the long run. His sequence is now 1121013131120102102111.
HOW TO WIN PICKING LOSERS: Daqman’s survey of his horses to follow today picks out future winners but he also tells you how to spot future losers. He gives away one of his secrets for lays and false favourites.
Ruby Walsh improves with age. Whether that’s true of Hurricane Fly or not, the jury is out, as he finished alone yesterday. But Ruby won the race – the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown – when he seized the initiative and made all in the mud.
Many a jockey was caught out, trying hold-up tactics, at a bog of a Cheltenham, too. Again it was Walsh who took hold of his races: the ride he gave Al Ferof in the Paddy Power was top-drawer superb.
My stats ABC was right there with the placed horses, Walkon and Nadiya De La Vega, and their riders, ‘Choc’ Thornton and A P McCoy, are two of the best in the business.
To give them a stone and more and thrash them in such conditions puts Al Ferof firmly among the greats for the 2012-13 season.
Of my own naps-winning trio, the Triumph Hurdle is still far away for Far West, and there will be many a new ‘star’ emerge at the front of the market. It’s a market the bookies love, a jam jar to the unwary busy-bee punter with money to fritter away.
Captain Conan did what he was asked to do, pitched into the main arena at the first time of asking but, for me, he was crying out for further. What they were calling speed was sheer strength from the big horse in the mud.
Easily the nap of my naps was Dynaste, who looked every inch the part and is potentially the new Grands Crus, while Grands Crus himself again displayed – pulled up behind Al Ferof – that something was wrong (wind, spine? It’s usually one of the two).
I’ll be looking at my horses-to-follow list again at the end of the month. One I shall not remove is Third Intention but I will hope for a change of tactics from the stable.
The betting said he would turn around the form with His Excellency yesterday and he did so by more than 10 lengths, without winning his race.
The Tizzards have campaigned him at Cheltenham: he’s run there seven times already, though he’s still only five (form figures 2010023). To my mind it’s been expectation of another Cue Card.
His nine-lengths romp in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell in February had them rubbing their hands about a novice-chase career. But he should have an agenda in his own right, on flat tracks and good ground.
‘My’ horses to look forward to are: Boston Bob (Thurles, Thursday or the Drinmore on December 2), Gevrey Chambertin (over the brush hurdles at Haydock on Friday), Monksland and Tarla (Hattons Grace, December 2), Sir Des Champs (John Durkan, December 9), West End Rocker (Hennessy or Becher Chase).
Saturday I will want to see Silviniaco Conti beat two Gold Cup winners, Long Run and Imperial Commander. Don’t want much of ‘my’ horses, do I! At least we should get a price.
I’m still saving up one of ‘my’ best, Cinders and Ashes, to beat a Champion Hurdler, Rock On Ruby, in the Fighting Fifth on Saturday week.
This idea of having your ‘own’ horses is an excellent way of following the form and the way trainers handle their stars.
Now how about a list of horses that you think WON’T win! What’s that, you say? Well, I’ve started mine. They will be false favourites, even lays in the coming weeks.
Here’s clue to some of the early birds on my ‘won’t win’ list for the 2012-13 season: the clue is ‘goes well fresh.’
You are looking for those horses which won first time out, going well fresh as predicted in their form. You also need on your list horses that usually win first time out, but didn’t (preferably went close). Very few of these winners and ‘miss’ horses score next time.
In my experience, many of them start favourite, simply because the mug punter sees their winning form or near miss and has his expectations raised, whereas they should be lowered.
NAP: Watch your bets at Leicester today: the chase course is on the firm side; the hurdles course is soft. Poor racing all day. I’ll hope to keep the nap going with Broadbackbob at ‘Plumptious’.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 9pts win QOUBILAI and 3pts win (stakes saver) CAMDEN (2.20 Plumpton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 2.6pts win SHADOWS LENGTHEN (2.40 Leicester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win BROADBACKBOB (nap, 1.20 Plumpton, Daq Value race), plus two 3pt win doubles Broadbackbob with Qoubilai and Camden (2.20 Plumpton), and two 2pt win trebles the same ones with Shadows Lengthen (2.40 Leicester)
* Except for Daq Multiples, Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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