HIT THE JACKPOT WITH BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman ended 2011 with jackpot winners at 10-1 (Le Beau Bai) and 100-30 (Unaccompanied). Now his jackpot bets are back for 2012 at Sandown today, including 13.0 and 11.0 Betdaq value.
2.05 Sandown The last two winners of this have been top class, Cornas and Master Minded, running of 148 and 145. Both had been first or second in a Graded chase.
Only Tanks For That (149) and Dave’s Dream (147) are that good, according to the official ratings but only King Edmund (144) has placed – third – in a Graded chase, and that as a novice.
Rileyev, a long way behind Tanks For That at Cheltenham, was a lucky second on the same course when Tanks For That stumbled and Dave’s Dream unseated claimer Jeremiah McGrath. Rileyev also has Hold Fast closing him down at the revised weights.
All For Free cannot be left out with his featherweight but I’m expecting to see two great Irish jocks battle out the finish on Hold Fast (Ruby Walsh) and Tanks For That (Barry Geraghty).
2.35 Sandown (Tolworth Hurdle) The usual suspects, Paul Nicholls (has won three of the last four) and Nicky Henderson (last year’s winner), with Walsh and Geraghty again doing battle.
But I have been very impressed with Colour Squadron and, had this race not had the potential for a tactical affair, I would have gone maximum stakes. Squadron’s only blip was when the ground wasn’t soft enough.
3.10 Sandown (HBLB Chase) Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh need to do a Celestial Halo here with Neptune Collonges; no previous winners of this have carried more than 11st 6lb. But ‘Neptune’ has won off a higher mark than today.
Hold On Julio romped around CD in November with the express purpose of getting in this sort of race off bottomweight: he didn’t quite make it; though hiked 16lb, he’s 3lb out of the handicap.
But Master Of The Hall may bounce from winning on his reappearance. Wymott may bounce back. Exmoor Ranger needs to improve off this mark; he’s never won a handicap with such a rating.
3.45 Sandown The stats say you can eliminate all those over the age of seven, and there’s been only one winner this century above 11st 3lb (last year).
But Nicky Henderson (Higgy’s Ragazzo 11st 8lb) has won twice since 2002, and Alarazi (11st 9lb) was hanging on as jolly this morning.
Abbevillian and Afsoun are likely to vie for the lead, but Im So Lucky, Lucaindubai and Synthe Davis can also be headstrong. A fast pace seems assured.
Heathcote, Sacrilege and Tasheba were all dogs on a raft this morning, drifting out to the betting no-man’s-land.
Tanks For That (2.05) could earlier boost Havinggotascoobydo, who was three lengths behind him in a chase at Cheltenham in November.
But ‘Scooby’ looks cursed by his chase form: why else is he running off 132 when he was beaten 15 lengths in a novice handicap off 127. His chase form also means he could carry top weight in the novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham. Too many alarm bells.
Lucaindubai, fourth in the Imperial Cup, is massively better off with the winner, Alarazi, but Alarazi is up a stone, so he’s bound to be. In any case, Lucaindubai has not yet learned to settle, or to jump well. He ran poorly when the money was down last time.
I choose from Alarazi, Attaglance (back to his winning trip), Higgy’s Ragazzo, Ciceron and Cotillion, who is unexposed and also drops back to his winning trip, with the stable rampant (55% win and place strike rate).
Ciceron would be one to watch in the market but for the sheep who are following Pricewise. They will make a false price, whereas I wanted to see whether there was any ‘real’ money for him after SPs of 33-1, 33-1, 25-1 and 50-1 in his last four starts.
Left alone, as the favourites hold their ground, and amid this run on Pricewise, is Cotillion at 13.0 and, despite the booking of Ruby Walsh, Attaglance at 11.0, ‘Higgy’ as the stakes saver.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 7pts win TANKS FOR THAT and 6.3pts win HOLD FAST (2.05 Sandown)
BET (to win 20pts) 9.8pts win (nap) COLOUR SQUADRON (2.35 Sandown)
BET 5.7pts win HOLD ON JULIO (3.10 Sandown)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win ATTAGLANCE, 2.5pts win COTILLION and 1.1pt win (stakes saver) HIGGY’S RAGAZZO (3.45 Sandown)
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