20-1 WINNER PIPES IN THE FLAT SEASON: It’s that man, Daqman, again! Yesterday he landed David Pipe’s Goulanes (WON 20-1) on the eve of today’s Winter Derby and Sunday’s launch of the Irish Flat season.
51 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: He was also on No Loose Change (WON 13-8), following Thursday’s double whammy with a successful lay and Spinning Waters (WON 13-2) in the same race to bring his profit in two days to 51 points.
It’s another year. When assessing three-year-old only races, you can basically forget two-year-old form, except at the highest level, and even that contains unexpected flops and sudden improvement. So today’s Spring Cup at Lingfield may be more for the pin than the prepared punter.
2.05 Newbury (Mares’ Novices’ Chase Finale): Only one winner in the decade has managed to carry more than 11st 1lb in this finale; even Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have had beaten favourites with 11st 10lb in the last three years.
It’s a real test for the stats today, with top-weights How’s Business and Pepite Rose having won a string of races eased down, but Time To Think, who was the moral at Lingfield in January, has terrific collateral form.
He was giving weight to the winner when he was second that day and two recent winners were third and fourth. Time To Think (9.0 this morning) is also the only horse this year to have beaten the four-times-winner Hunt Ball. Even if massively flattered by that, he must come into this at the weights.
2.25 Lingfield (Spring Cup): Richard Hannon is 1021 in this in the last four seasons, with his two successful both starting favourite.
The four winners in that time were rated 93-100, which is where you’ll find Kenny Powers, the first-time hooded Big Note and the Hannon runner, Crown Dependency.
Hannon’s Ryan-Moore-ridden Gusto is at the front of the market: already a Polytrack winner, he finished last season with a Listed success. But Crown Dependency, placed in both the Molecomb and the Norfolk, is big at offers of 12.5, after being gelded during the winter.
Bannock is also a Listed winner and was inconvenienced by heavy ground in a Group-2 race in Paris; he had been placed at that level on a sound surface at Newmarket. Gatepost tried and failed in three Group contests but goes well fresh.
2.40 Newbury (Mares Novices’ Hurdle Finale): Nicky Henderson (3) and Oliver Sherwood (2) have farmed this for five seasons now, but Sherwood’s Florafern would be an unusual winner at age seven (1-10) and off such a low mark (2-10), and has broken blood-vessels in the past.
Henderson’s Heather Royal has a big weight (only 1-10 with 11st 4lb or more) though winners in the last five years have been within a much higher ratings parameter than previously: 122-130. That squeezes her in, alongside Miss Milbourne and A Little Swifter.
However, Heather Royal, a half-sister to Barber’s Shop, has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning and is not wanted at 15.0 at the time of writing.
Kentford Grey Lady ran up to Quevega at Cheltenham and Festival losers have a huge record coming out again before Aintree, though she is not well in here on a line through Queens Bay, which brings in Tante Sissi (9.2) a mare who must have a trip.
The Reveleys have kept Cue To Cue (also 9.2 as I write) to shorter distances so she returns to her right trip off a handy-looking mark today.
2.55 Lingfield (Hever Sprint Stakes): Favourites have been whitewashed in the eight seasons since 2003 but the winner is usually close up in the betting (SPs 5-2 to 7-1 last six years).
Kevin Ryan has figures of 1011 since 2007, though Bajan Tryst has been winning over another furlong. Oasis Dancer is also a 6f-7f horse.
On all known form, slow-starter Medicean Man will waste his good draw in stall 3, so maybe this is best left to Noble Storm, seven times a distance winner who goes well fresh. I’ve said my piece about Borderlescott.
3.25 Lingfield (Winter Derby): It’s four-year-olds 5, six-year-olds 4 in the decade, which includes Cai Shen (meaning ‘wealth’), who was 10-1 when I told you about him on Monday and is half the price now, said to have blossomed over the winter.
But 7-10 had won on the AW during the winter months, five of them at Lingfield, which means you have to consider Junoob. Soorah finished in front of Cai Shen at Goodwood last summer and has done well at a high level in Meydan; it’s a question of whether this good miler can get the 1m 2f.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.7pts win TIME TO THINK and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) PEPITE ROSE (2.05 Newbury)
BET (to win 20pts) 1.7pts win and place CROWN DEPENDENCY (2.25 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.5pts win CUE TO CUE and 2.5pts win TANTE SISSI plus 1.4pt win (stakes saver) KENTFORD GREY LADY (2.40 Newbury)
BET (to win 20pts): 5.7pts win NOBLE STORM (2.55 Lingfield)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 5.7pts win (nap) CAI SHEN (3.25 Lingfield)
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