33-1 WINNER AND NAPS AT 7-2 AND 4-1: It’s been a sensational York week for Daqman with a 33-1 winner, two naps at 7-2 and 4-1 and a jackpot strike at 10-1. Here’s the breakdown of his week before another controversial column on the Frankel world scene, featuring 116.0 and 42.0 shots:
13-2 SCORER OPENS THE FLOOD GATE (Wednesday): He got his sights in at York with Gatewood (WON 13-2) in the very first race of the meeting
WHAT A JUDGE! JACKPOT BET WINS AT 10-1 (Thursday): The first race of the day again, and Daqman’s verdict, Judge And Jury (WON 10-1), landed a jackpot bet. He followed up in the very next race with Izzi Top (nap, WON 7-2).
CUP STUNNER IS HIS FINAL COUP (Friday): There were two stunning bets from Daqman in the space of 20 minutes yesterday: Momentary (WON 33-1) at Newbury and the Yorkshire Cup star, Red Cadeaux (nap, WON 4-1), his final bet at the Knavesmire Dante meeting.
May I present: the Frankel ratings scandal! Officially, the world leader in the rankings soared 10lb last year but check out your form book and, on the line that’s important to us today – via Excelebration – he didn’t improve a single pound.
Frankel beat Excelebration four lengths in the Greenham and he beat him four lengths in the Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes at Ascot six months later in October.
Of course, both could have improved the 10lb. But they didn’t. Officially, Excelebration climbed a massive 37lb to be brought in line with the Frankel hike.
Frankels’ brother is also in the limelight, on the Derby front. There are three slender lifelines left for those looking to beat Camelot: today’s Fairway Stakes at Newmarket (2.15), next Friday’s Cocked Hat at Goodwood and Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas. But it’s looking more and more like mission impossible.
The Fairway features Noble Mission, brother to Frankel, who still looks impossible to beat later on this afternoon in the Lockinge (3.40) at Newbury, simply because his principal opposition yet again is the same Excelebration.
With my Derby bets already in a cocked hat, and a lay outstanding on the favourite, I need a new candidate for Epsom glory but it may not be Noble Mission. And I shan’t be backing Frankel at the price: I’ll try small stakes on another massive outsider.
2.00 Newbury: A Listed winner already or in the frame in a Group race. The stats say that’s an essential to win this, which takes out Meganisi and Hawaafez.
A quality rating of between 105-110 (last five winners) suggests you can also remove Dreamspeed and Junoob. Short prices about Nehaam and Ibicenco now look more appetizing. But which one?
Until yesterday, I would have said Nehaam, with John Gosden in good form at York but Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon scored at Newmarket with Danadan, albeit after that one had prepped on the course earlier in the month.
But four more pluses for Ibicenco include his having won first time out last season; he’s at home with cut in the ground; his trainer won the race last year; and his stablemate, Bauer, comfortably took a September handicap from Nehaam, whose success has come only on firmish ground, good at worst.
2.15 Newmarket (Fairway Stakes): This race had a purple patch from 2005-7, throwing up a St Leger winner, a Breeders Cup hero and a Champion Stakes star.
Now, after the wettest of Derby prep seasons has left us with only two horses sub 12-1 for Epsom, Frankel’s brother Noble Mission represents one of the last gasps of the dying opposition to Camelot.
But a close finish in a war of attrition with Thought Worthy would probably dispatch Noble Mission to Royal Ascot for the King Edward instead of the Derby. And such a war with ‘Worthy’ is very likely this afternoon.
The Gosden colt’s brother, Lucarno, took this on the way to winning the St Leger, and Thought Worthy narrowly failed to win a 10-furlong at Sandown against an unbeaten Ballydoyle Derby hope, Imperial Monarch.
That means two things: Thought Worthy is likely to take them on today and set a stayer’s gallop – can Noble Mission catch him? – and the Camelot camp already has them sorted through that Sandown race.
2.30 Newbury: Three of four recent big-field races for this have been won by stalls 14 (twice) and 16. Mac’s Power was second from 13 off 97 last year; he’s now in 7 and 2lb higher but has last year’s winning jockey taking over.
Drawn even lower is The Confessor (stall 1) who, as a 7f winner, should be seen to advantage, having run well in big-field races at this level, where most of today’s opposition is from a lower grade.
In the high draw, Naabegha (12), under jockey find of the season so far, James Doyle, is closely handicapped with The Confessor on their Lingfield 7f form in April when The Confessor played catch me and lasted out until the final furlong.
So the shape of the race today seems to be a big tow for the low draw from The Confessor. As four-year-olds, Whaileyy and Bertiewhittle (stall 2) should improve and his class-2 winner on the July Course last year makes me plump for ‘Bertie’, hampered behind The Confessor over today’s CD a fortnight ago when unfancied at 16-1. Jimmy ‘Bonfire’ Fortune now takes charge.
2.45 Newmarket (Champions Club Sprint): Since stalls 1 and 2 were first and second last year, you could be forgiven for expecting far-rail bias but, in fact, those two ran down the middle of the track.
The same thing happened in the Palace House Stakes at the Guineas meeting, 2 beating 4 as the middle was favoured but Mayson, running from the widest draw, won the races, towed by the second, Definightly.
Low seems to have the pace edge again today, with Rafeej (in 2), Pea Shooter (4) and Democretes (7) usually fast starters, but only Hurry Up George (in 15) for the high side.
In fact, Democretes, three times a winner from the front, was held up when third, with Mince second, over CD recently; so was Hurry Up George (fifth) and it was Alejandro (in 13 today) who set the gallop.
Democretes (10.5 on BETDAQ this morning) – ran well in the Guineas – is better off at the weights with Mince now, but Mince has Dettori taking over. Democrates and Mince eventually beat Alejandro much further than did Heerat (NR) and Responsive (Top Cop behind) over the same CD in April.
I must take a massive offer which also couples class and stable form: Mick Channon is having a great run and Lady Gorgeous, dropping back from Group races, is a mad, mad price at 42.0.
3.05 Newbury (London Gold Cup): Today’s racing is an emotional and betting lottery, compared with the sound reasoning required at York. On such a day, you need BETDAQ on your side.
There was 16-1 Hurricane In Dubai with Hills, Paddy Power and Betfred on Oddschecker this morning but 29.0 offers on BETDAQ. That’s nearly double the odds about a fine son of Hurricane Run with an up-and-coming trainer, Denis Coakley at West Ilsley.
I must also take an interest in the unexposed Icelander (17.5): off a low draw, he could have the edge on stablemate Hajras (saver); they represent formidable opposition to the hype horse, Thomas Chippendale.
3.40 Newbury (Lockinge Stakes): Recent superior winners of this, Canford Cliffs and Paco Boy, were rated 9lb and 12lb below Frankel.
Today’s nearest rival to Frankel, Excelebration is allegedly in their league, 10lb inferior to today’s favourite.
But is his rating pumped up because of his proximity to Frankel? Is Frankel really a wonder horse, his reputation largely depending on repetition after repetition, his defeat of Excelebration three times?
This confounds his so-called ‘amazing improvement’ (quote unquote one of today’s pundits): in fact, he beat Excelebration by the same margin, four lengths, in October as he had done six months earlier in April 2011. Frankel may be the world’s top rated, but he must prove it by stopping the southern-hemisphere champion (Black Caviar), probably in the Sussex Stakes, and then the Americans at the Breeders Cup; that’s not to mention what France and Japan might throw up this year.
Here we are again today with Excelebration the only serious rival (Dubawi Gold is six lengths behind Frankel on last year’s form), and Ballydoyle willing to take him on again and join in the pacemaking, tit for tat, Windsor Palace v. Bullet Train.
Racing needs Frankel, but the punters don’t, with 7-2 on (5-2 bar one) the absurd best some bookies could do this morning, compared with 3-1 on and 7-2 in BETDAQ offers.
I can’t lay Frankel today, though I may well do so if those showdown races come along. But, as an interest this afternoon, I shall try for a bit of repetition of my own: I went for a 33-1 outsider yesterday to confound the form and it happened; and Aidan O’Brien is notorious for the same trick, particularly with a second string acting as pacemaker.
I grabbed 164.0 Windsor Palace on BETDAQ, with Strong Suit still in at 8.45 a.m. (though reported a non-runner by Richard Hughes on the Morning Line) and 116.0 at 9.05 a.m. after Strong Suit’s defection was confirmed.
Windsor Palace has already fluked defeat of St Nicholas Abbey from the front in Ireland this season, and only such a fluke on sticky ground against a too-fresh Frankel can stop the so-called wonder horse from (here comes quadruple tautology) yet another repetition of the same. Again.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8.5pts win IBICENCO (2.00 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) THOUGHT WORTHY (2.15 Newmarket)
BET 3.8pts win BERTIEWHITTLE (2.30 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.1pts win DEMOCRETES, 0.7pts win and place LADY GORGEOUS and 1pt win (stakes saver) MINCE (2.45 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.8pts win and place ICELANDER, 1pt win and place HURRICANE IN DUBAI and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) HAJRAS (3.05 Newbury)
BET 1pt win (at 116.0) and 2pts place (6.8 taken) WINDSOR PALACE (3.40 Newbury)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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